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US Foods Holding (USFD) AI Stock Analysis
US Foods Holding
(NYSE:USFD)
USFD scores well primarily due to improving financial performance (growth, higher earnings, and strong free cash flow) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). The earnings call adds confidence via reaffirmed growth guidance, margin expansion, and continued share gains. These positives are tempered by a higher P/E valuation and the company’s thin-margin profile with meaningful leverage.
US Foods Holding Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue by Product CategoryBreaks down sales across the company’s product groups to show which lines (e.g., proteins, produce, refrigerated, dry goods, equipment and services) drive revenue and which drive margins. For US Foods, this reveals dependency on specific categories, sensitivity to commodity-price and supply-chain swings, and where the company can expand or deepen customer relationships — key for judging growth prospects, margin sustainability, and concentration risks.
Meats & Seafood is the clear growth engine, driving a favorable mix shift and supporting higher gross‑profit per case—consistent with management’s independent‑restaurant share gains and private‑label traction—while dairy and produce show cyclical volatility (dairy peaked in 2025 then pulled back in early 2026, suggesting price/volume normalization). Dry and refrigerated grocery are steady, and equipment/beverages provide reliable upside. Margin progress, however, is exposed to elevated fuel and limited surcharge recovery near term, making the company’s COGS savings and productivity initiatives critical to sustaining EBITDA momentum.
The FlyUS Foods Holding (USFD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $23.78B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 2.25M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 33.3
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.56
- Revenue Growth
- 3.83%
- EPS Growth
- 38.81%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 30,000
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Sector Strength
- 62
- Industry
- Food Distribution
US Foods Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
US Foods Holding Corp., operating primarily via its subsidiary, US Foods, Inc., is a key marketer and distributor within the United States foodservice market, offering an extensive selection of fresh, frozen, and dry food products alongside various n...
How the Company Makes Money
US Foods primarily makes money by purchasing food and food-related products from manufacturers and other suppliers and reselling them to foodservice customers at a markup, generating revenue from product sales. Its core revenue streams include: (1) F...
US Foods Holding Earnings Call Summary
The call emphasized strong execution and multiple tangible operational and financial wins: record adjusted EBITDA and margin expansion, double-digit adjusted EPS growth, accelerating independent restaurant volume (+5.1%), sizable share repurchases, and concrete self-help and AI-driven productivity initiatives with quantifiable savings targets. Management acknowledged headwinds — notably a decline in chain restaurant volume (-1.5%), elevated fuel and near-term selling cost pressure from the sales compensation transition, and the need to lap a prior event that will moderate Q3 comparisons. Overall, the positives (robust growth, margin expansion, share gains, cash flow strength, and clear programs to drive further productivity and AI adoption) materially outweigh the limited and largely manageable near-term challenges.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
US Foods reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance calling for net sales growth of 4%–6%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 9%–13% and adjusted EPS growth of 18%–24%, driven by total case volume growth of 2.5%–4.5%; management noted the full‑year outlook includes a 53rd week expected to add roughly 1% to total case growth and adjusted EBITDA, assumes fuel roughly at current levels, and that the midpoint of the ranges reflects their best estimate, with adjusted EPS expected to continue to outpace adjusted EBITDA over time as strong cash flow and share repurchases are deployed.
US Foods Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials show solid multi-year growth and improving profitability, with revenue rising to ~$40.3B (TTM) and net income improving to ~$793M (TTM). Cash generation is strong (TTM FCF ~$1.05B), supporting capital returns and flexibility. Offsetting this, the business remains structurally thin-margin (TTM net margin ~1.8%) and leverage is meaningful (debt-to-equity ~1.22x TTM), leaving results more execution- and cycle-sensitive.
Income Statement
74PositiveBalance Sheet
62PositiveCash Flow
70Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 40.34B | 39.42B | 37.88B | 35.60B | 34.06B | 29.49B |
| Gross Profit | 7.20B | 6.86B | 6.53B | 6.15B | 5.49B | 4.66B |
| EBITDA | 1.83B | 1.67B | 1.40B | 1.40B | 988.00M | 805.00M |
| Net Income | 793.00M | 676.00M | 494.00M | 506.00M | 265.00M | 164.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.36B | 13.94B | 13.44B | 13.19B | 12.77B | 12.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 54.00M | 41.00M | 59.00M | 269.00M | 211.00M | 148.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.10B | 5.72B | 5.43B | 5.20B | 5.31B | 5.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.03B | 9.64B | 8.91B | 8.44B | 8.28B | 8.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.33B | 4.31B | 4.53B | 4.75B | 4.50B | 4.27B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.05B | 959.00M | 833.00M | 831.00M | 500.00M | 145.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.45B | 1.37B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 765.00M | 419.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -442.00M | -497.00M | -552.00M | -495.00M | -255.00M | -262.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.01B | -890.00M | -831.00M | -587.00M | -447.00M | -837.00M |
US Foods Holding Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For USFD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 109.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 101.60, above the 50-day MA of 99.28, and above the 200-day MA of 94.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for USFD.
US Foods Holding Risk Analysis
US Foods Holding disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. US Foods Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksUS Foods Holding Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
- USFD73Outperform
CHEF69Neutral
PFGC68Neutral
SYY60Neutral
UNFI52Neutral
HFFG49Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USFD | 73Outperform | $21.93B | 33.31 | 16.75% | ― | 3.83% | 38.81% |
| CHEF | 69Neutral | $4.39B | 40.47 | 16.08% | ― | 11.51% | 36.16% |
| PFGC | 68Neutral | $15.23B | 43.31 | 8.18% | ― | 7.17% | 4.89% |
| Sector * | 62Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% |
| SYY | 60Neutral | $36.46B | 20.41 | 64.03% | 2.83% | 3.80% | 0.50% |
| UNFI | 52Neutral | $2.72B | 34.89 | 5.32% | ― | -1.99% | ― |
| HFFG | 49Neutral | $79.23M | -2.29 | -16.25% | ― | 2.78% | 28.68% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USFD | Us Foods Holding Corp. | 109.93 | 38.53 | 53.96% | |
| SYY | Sysco Corporation | 76.94 | 6.08 | 8.59% | |
| CHEF | The Chefs' Warehouse Inc | 106.84 | 43.18 | 67.83% | |
| UNFI | United Natural Foods | 48.29 | 11.03 | 29.60% | |
| PFGC | Performance Food Group Co. | 109.57 | 14.60 | 15.37% | |
| HFFG | Hf Foods Group | 1.49 | -0.89 | -37.39% |
US Foods Holding Corporate Events
US Foods Holding Adds New Term Loan Facility
PositiveOn October 2, 2026, US Foods entered into a Fourteenth Amendment to its Amended and Restated Term Loan Credit Agreement, establishing an incremental senior secured term loan facility of $810 million maturing on October 2, 2033. The new 2026 Term Loan...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026