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The Chefs' Warehouse
(NASDAQ:CHEF)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$127.00
▲(33.88% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
CHEF scores well primarily on strong technical uptrend and a positive earnings-call outlook with raised guidance, margin expansion, and improving leverage/liquidity. Financial performance is improving but still constrained by thin net margins and meaningful debt, while valuation is the main drag given the high P/E and no dividend yield support.
Positive Factors
Sustained top-line growth and market penetration
Consistent double-digit organic growth and improving unique-customer and case metrics indicate durable demand and expanding share in premium foodservice channels. Multi-year revenue scale supports route density, supplier leverage and recurring order flows that underpin predictable mid-term revenue resilience.
Negative Factors
Thin net margins versus leverage
Net margins near low single digits leave limited cushion against cost inflation or demand softness given the company's leverage profile. Small net-margin volatility can quickly erode equity returns and cash available for debt reduction, making profitability stability a critical ongoing risk factor.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained top-line growth and market penetration
Consistent double-digit organic growth and improving unique-customer and case metrics indicate durable demand and expanding share in premium foodservice channels. Multi-year revenue scale supports route density, supplier leverage and recurring order flows that underpin predictable mid-term revenue resilience.
Read all positive factors
The Chefs' Warehouse Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Product Category
Breaks down revenue by product line (for example fresh produce, proteins, specialty ingredients, and private-label goods) to show which items drive sales and profits. Reveals where the company has pricing power or margin strength, and flags exposure to restaurant demand, seasonality, or supply-chain cost swings. Changes in the mix can signal growth opportunities or risks — for instance, rising share of higher-margin specialty products suggests better profitability, while heavy dependence on commodity items increases vulnerability to input-price spikes.
Breaks down revenue by product line (for example fresh produce, proteins, specialty ingredients, and private-label goods) to show which items drive sales and profits. Reveals where the company has pricing power or margin strength, and flags exposure to restaurant demand, seasonality, or supply-chain cost swings. Changes in the mix can signal growth opportunities or risks — for instance, rising share of higher-margin specialty products suggests better profitability, while heavy dependence on commodity items increases vulnerability to input-price spikes.
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The Fly
The FlyThe Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.71B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)553.97K
Price to Earnings (P/E)48.5
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth11.16%
EPS Growth30.78%
CountryUS
Employees5,156
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.38
Shares Outstanding40,796,080
10 Day Avg. Volume633,362
30 Day Avg. Volume553,965
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.21
Price to Book (P/B)4.07
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio28.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$117.14Price Target Upside23.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)2.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.49B
The Chefs' Warehouse Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF) is a specialty food distributor serving high-end restaurants, hotels, country clubs, caterers, and other foodservice customers. The company sources and distributes a broad range of products—such as specialty groce...
How the Company Makes Money
The Chefs' Warehouse primarily makes money by purchasing food and related products from manufacturers, farms, fisheries, importers, and specialty producers, then selling and delivering those items to foodservice customers at a markup. Its core rev...
The Chefs' Warehouse Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial trajectory: robust revenue growth (Q2 net sales +12.9% and organic +12.2%), meaningful margin and EBITDA expansion, raised full-year guidance, improved market penetration metrics and healthy liquidity/deleveraging. Key challenges include regional Middle East disruption, inflation and rising operating costs, convertible note dilution risk and a selective M&A backdrop. On balance, the positive growth, margin gains and cash-generation trends materially outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales increased ~12.9% to $1.169B in Q2 2026 from $1.035B a year ago; organic net sales grew ~12.2% and acquisitions contributed ~0.7% to growth. Management expects double-digit top-line growth to start Q3 and momentum continued into July.
Negative Updates
Middle East Conflict and Operational Disruption
Middle East operations were impaired by regional conflict; business operated at ~94% of prior-year levels in May–June and had operated as low as ~75% earlier in the conflict. Reported unique customer growth was partially impacted by the conflict and management built conservatism into guidance given uncertain tourism recovery.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales increased ~12.9% to $1.169B in Q2 2026 from $1.035B a year ago; organic net sales grew ~12.2% and acquisitions contributed ~0.7% to growth. Management expects double-digit top-line growth to start Q3 and momentum continued into July.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year 2026 guidance to net sales of $4.5–$4.6 billion, gross profit of $1.102–$1.125 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $305–$315 million (implying roughly a high‑6% adjusted EBITDA margin), and expects fully diluted shares of ~46.0–46.7 million due to dilutive 2028 convertibles. At June 26 liquidity was $321.1 million (cash $135.5M + $185.6M ABL availability), total net debt was about $478.5 million with net debt / adjusted EBITDA ≈1.6x after repaying $30M of ABL debt (ABL drawn $70M). Looking to 2030, targets are $6.0–$6.5 billion revenue, $450–$520 million adjusted EBITDA and a 7.5%–8% adjusted EBITDA margin, with an annual revenue growth goal of 7%–10% (assuming ~1% per year from acquisitions); capital and cash‑flow assumptions include ~1% of revenue in CapEx, target net‑debt/adj‑EBITDA of 1.5–2.5x, and free‑cash‑flow conversion of 40%–60% of adjusted EBITDA (management has generated ~ $270M FCF since 2024).The Chefs' Warehouse Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.39B | 4.15B | 3.79B | 3.43B | 2.61B | 1.75B |
| Gross Profit | 1.07B | 1.00B | 914.15M | 814.47M | 618.64M | 390.49M |
| EBITDA | 410.29M | 223.24M | 193.14M | 156.55M | 125.71M | 47.18M |
| Net Income | 91.97M | 72.36M | 55.48M | 34.59M | 27.75M | -4.92M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.03B | 2.03B | 1.86B | 1.71B | 1.51B | 1.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 135.47M | 120.98M | 114.66M | 49.88M | 158.80M | 115.16M |
| Total Debt | 946.61M | 1.18B | 915.83M | 926.27M | 839.98M | 542.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.38B | 1.42B | 1.32B | 1.25B | 1.10B | 723.58M |
| Stockholders Equity | 648.24M | 604.31M | 537.65M | 454.67M | 401.51M | 350.21M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 125.77M | 87.79M | 103.56M | 4.21M | -22.71M | -58.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 161.80M | 129.22M | 153.06M | 61.64M | 23.13M | -19.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -41.64M | -46.76M | -49.82M | -179.31M | -232.02M | -48.99M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -81.44M | -76.22M | -38.48M | 9.01M | 253.22M | -9.22M |
The Chefs' Warehouse Technical Analysis
Positive
94.86
Price Trends
92.72
Positive
80.42
Positive
71.61
Positive
Market Momentum
4.84
Negative
66.80
Neutral
82.63
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHEF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 94.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 100.34, above the 50-day MA of 92.72, and above the 200-day MA of 71.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.63 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CHEF.
The Chefs' Warehouse Risk Analysis
The Chefs' Warehouse disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. The Chefs' Warehouse reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
The Chefs' Warehouse Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $4.71B | 48.47 | 15.09% | ― | 11.16% | 30.78% | |
66 Neutral | $17.97B | 53.96 | 7.13% | ― | 8.45% | -12.95% | |
64 Neutral | $40.76B | 23.61 | 75.46% | 2.61% | 3.44% | -6.81% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $22.15B | 33.42 | 15.27% | ― | 3.67% | 36.66% | |
50 Neutral | $3.08B | -81.21 | -2.43% | ― | -3.22% | 44.69% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse
108.54
42.77
65.03%
SYY
Sysco
84.21
4.99
6.30%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
48.05
20.55
74.73%
PFGC
Performance Food Group
112.00
13.72
13.96%
USFD
US Foods Holding
100.49
15.81
18.67%
The Chefs' Warehouse Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Chefs’ Warehouse Shareholders Approve Directors and Auditor
Positive
May 11, 2026
At its May 8, 2026 annual meeting, The Chefs’ Warehouse reported that holders of 93.79% of outstanding shares were present or represented, and stockholders elected eight directors, including Steven F. Goldstone and Christopher and John Pappa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.