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Upbound Group
(NASDAQ:UPBD)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$21.50
▲(5.08% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
UPBD scores as a balanced, mid-range opportunity: strong and improving cash flow and reaffirmed guidance support the outlook, but thin margins and a highly levered balance sheet materially raise risk if demand or credit conditions weaken. Technicals are mixed (short-term softness vs longer-term trend support), while valuation is comparatively attractive due to a moderate P/E and high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, material operating and free cash flow shows the business converts earnings to cash reliably. This supports dividends, debt reduction and selective reinvestment, improving financial flexibility and resilience to demand or credit stress over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Net leverage at multi‑turn levels increases vulnerability to macro swings and credit-cycle shocks, constraining strategic options. Even with modest improvement and a stated target to deleverage, carrying heavy debt limits capital for growth investments and raises refinancing risk over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, material operating and free cash flow shows the business converts earnings to cash reliably. This supports dividends, debt reduction and selective reinvestment, improving financial flexibility and resilience to demand or credit stress over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Upbound Group (UPBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.15B
Dividend Yield5.96%
Average Volume (3M)1.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.3
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth5.85%
EPS Growth-14.82%
CountryUS
Employees12,050
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.59
Shares Outstanding58,299,404
10 Day Avg. Volume907,973
30 Day Avg. Volume1,010,096
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.32
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.21
P/FCF Ratio4.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.00Price Target Upside22.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.80B
Upbound Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) is a lease-to-own and retail company focused on providing flexible payment solutions for consumer durable goods in the United States. The company operates primarily through its Rent-A-Center and Acima businesses, offerin...
How the Company Makes Money
Upbound Group makes money primarily by offering customers access to consumer durable goods through lease-to-own and alternative payment programs and earning revenue from those transactions. Rent-A-Center generates revenue through recurring lease p...
Upbound Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely constructive operational and cash-flow story: strong Brigit growth, meaningful improvement in cash generation and deleveraging, and margin expansion at Acima despite top-line and GMV pressure. Notable near-term headwinds include an Acima GMV decline (partly driven by a cyber incident with ~$13M in fraudulent losses), a decline in consolidated adjusted EBITDA and EPS, and Rent‑A‑Center EBITDA pressure and store consolidations. On balance, the positives (robust cash flow, improved credit metrics, Brigit momentum, deleveraging and raised free cash flow guidance) outweigh the negatives tied to GMV softness and one-time cyber-related losses.Positive Updates
Strong cash generation and deleveraging
Net cash provided by operating activities was $123 million, up $97 million year-over-year; free cash flow was $84 million versus negative $10 million a year ago. Trailing 12-month operating cash flow of $425 million and full-year free cash flow guidance raised to $250 million (from $200 million). Net debt was ~$1.3 billion with leverage of 2.6x TTM adjusted EBITDA, down from 2.9x at year-end 2025.
Negative Updates
Acima GMV decline and cyber incident-related losses
Acima GMV was ~$466 million, down ~11% year-over-year and revenue declined ~2.5% year-over-year to $604 million. The company reported elevated fraudulent contract losses of approximately $13 million tied to cybersecurity incidents and expects Acima GMV to be flat to low single-digit negative for the year before returning to growth in Q4.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong cash generation and deleveraging
Net cash provided by operating activities was $123 million, up $97 million year-over-year; free cash flow was $84 million versus negative $10 million a year ago. Trailing 12-month operating cash flow of $425 million and full-year free cash flow guidance raised to $250 million (from $200 million). Net debt was ~$1.3 billion with leverage of 2.6x TTM adjusted EBITDA, down from 2.9x at year-end 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management narrowed full‑year revenue guidance to $4.7–$4.85B, reaffirmed adjusted EBITDA of $500–$535M and non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $4.00–$4.35, and raised free cash flow guidance to ~$250M (from $200M) with TTM operating cash flow of $425M; quarter‑end liquidity was ~$487M, net debt ~$1.3B and leverage ~2.6x TTM adjusted EBITDA (down from 2.9x), with a long‑term leverage target around 2x. For Q3 they guided consolidated revenue of $1.05–$1.15B, adjusted EBITDA of $105–$115M and non‑GAAP EPS of $0.85–$0.95, expecting Q3 GMV down low–mid single digits y/y with sequential improvement and a return to GMV growth in Q4. Segment detail: Acima is expected to deliver 2026 GMV flat to down low single digits with losses stabilizing under ~9% (Q2 lease charge‑offs ~8.8%) and an adjusted EBITDA margin above 16% (Q2 margin 16.2%); Brigit is still targeting >30% annual revenue growth to $265–$285M with adjusted EBITDA $50–$60M, ~1.7M paying users, monthly ARPU $14.30 and net advance loss ~3.6% (mid‑3% expected in Q3); Rent‑A‑Center revenue is expected flat to down low single digits with EBITDA margin roughly flat to 2025 and Q3 lease charge‑offs in the mid‑5% range. Management also funded a $0.39 quarterly dividend (~$23M, ~7.5% yield).Upbound Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.74B | 4.70B | 4.32B | 3.99B | 4.25B | 4.58B |
| Gross Profit | 2.33B | 2.27B | 2.08B | 2.02B | 2.08B | 2.24B |
| EBITDA | 1.76B | 1.74B | 339.01M | 290.54M | 283.05M | 435.01M |
| Net Income | 90.34M | 73.24M | 123.48M | -5.18M | 12.36M | 134.94M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.10B | 3.28B | 2.65B | 2.72B | 2.76B | 2.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 105.30M | 120.53M | 60.86M | 93.70M | 144.14M | 108.33M |
| Total Debt | 1.71B | 1.86B | 1.58B | 1.60B | 1.67B | 1.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.37B | 2.58B | 2.02B | 2.16B | 2.24B | 2.48B |
| Stockholders Equity | 733.35M | 695.74M | 628.98M | 560.37M | 525.15M | 513.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 355.95M | 238.71M | 48.45M | 146.89M | 407.07M | 329.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 425.45M | 305.57M | 104.72M | 200.29M | 468.46M | 392.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -143.57M | -403.73M | -41.51M | -50.96M | -62.33M | -1.34B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -284.47M | 156.47M | -93.52M | -202.12M | -370.71M | 892.85M |
Upbound Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
20.46
Price Trends
19.94
Negative
19.01
Positive
18.53
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.27
Positive
46.26
Neutral
27.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPBD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.31, above the 50-day MA of 19.94, and above the 200-day MA of 18.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UPBD.
Upbound Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $853.26M | 38.77 | 9.35% | ― | 11.10% | 47.69% | |
67 Neutral | $2.26B | 160.08 | 1.29% | ― | 9.58% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $1.15B | 12.34 | 12.76% | 5.72% | 5.85% | -14.82% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
59 Neutral | $2.22B | -48.07 | -12.48% | ― | 27.05% | -12.95% | |
59 Neutral | $366.60M | -18.15 | -1.22% | ― | -10.34% | 49.81% | |
59 Neutral | $1.41B | -11.94 | -13.25% | ― | ― | ― |
* Technology Sector Average
UPBD
Upbound Group
19.62
-1.84
-8.58%
MITK
Mitek Systems
19.43
9.40
93.72%
NCNO
nCino
20.81
-6.94
-25.01%
ALKT
Alkami Technology
20.67
-2.41
-10.44%
BLND
Blend Labs
1.49
-1.35
-47.54%
WLTH
Wealthfront Corporation
9.14
-5.05
-35.59%
Upbound Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Upbound Group Posts Solid Q2 Results, Narrows 2026 Outlook
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Upbound Group reported second-quarter 2026 results showing consolidated revenue of about $1.2 billion, with all key metrics landing within prior guidance ranges. The company highlighted robust cash generation, including roughly $...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Upbound Shareholders Approve 2026 Long-Term Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Upbound Group, Inc. stockholders approved a new 2026 Long-Term Incentive Plan authorizing up to 4,590,636 shares of common stock for equity awards to directors, executives, employees and other personnel, while halting new grants a...
Executive/Board Changes
Upbound Group Announces Resignation of Executive Vice President
Neutral
May 19, 2026
On May 15, 2026, Upbound Group, Inc. announced that Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary Bryan Pechersky had submitted his resignation, effective June 5, 2026. The company emphasized that Pechersky’s decision to ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Upbound Group Posts Solid Q1 Results, Reaffirms 2026 Outlook
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Upbound Group reported its first-quarter 2026 results, posting 3.7% year-over-year consolidated revenue growth to $1.2 billion and strong cash generation with $171 million in operating cash flow. Segment performance was mixed bu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.