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Upbound Group
(NASDAQ:UPBD)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▼(-7.02% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/23/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial momentum and strong cash generation (supporting deleveraging), plus favorable valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by elevated leverage and thin margins, and the technical picture remains bearish with the stock trading below key moving averages despite oversold readings.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and deleveraging
Upbound is converting operations into substantial cash, giving it capacity to reduce debt while continuing targeted investment and shareholder returns. The combination of higher free cash flow expectations and lower leverage improves financial flexibility and supports more durable execution.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and thin margins
High leverage leaves Upbound more sensitive to demand weakness and profit compression, while thin margins provide a limited buffer against operating shocks. These conditions can constrain investment and capital allocation until debt declines or profitability becomes more resilient.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and deleveraging
Upbound is converting operations into substantial cash, giving it capacity to reduce debt while continuing targeted investment and shareholder returns. The combination of higher free cash flow expectations and lower leverage improves financial flexibility and supports more durable execution.
Read all positive factors
Upbound Group (UPBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$910.64M
Dividend Yield7.49%
Average Volume (3M)803.88K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.9
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth5.85%
EPS Growth-14.82%
CountryUS
Employees12,050
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.59
Shares Outstanding58,299,404
10 Day Avg. Volume962,425
30 Day Avg. Volume803,875
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.32
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.21
P/FCF Ratio4.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.00Price Target Upside29.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.73B
Upbound Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Upbound Group, Inc., which rebranded from Rent-A-Center, Inc. in February 2023, operates as a diversified retail and financial technology platform. Its core business involves providing household durable goods to consumers in the United States, Pue...
How the Company Makes Money
Upbound Group primarily makes money by providing lease-to-own and virtual lease-to-own arrangements that allow customers to obtain merchandise in exchange for recurring payments over a defined term. Key revenue streams include: (1) Lease-to-own pa...
Upbound Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely constructive operational and cash-flow story: strong Brigit growth, meaningful improvement in cash generation and deleveraging, and margin expansion at Acima despite top-line and GMV pressure. Notable near-term headwinds include an Acima GMV decline (partly driven by a cyber incident with ~$13M in fraudulent losses), a decline in consolidated adjusted EBITDA and EPS, and Rent‑A‑Center EBITDA pressure and store consolidations. On balance, the positives (robust cash flow, improved credit metrics, Brigit momentum, deleveraging and raised free cash flow guidance) outweigh the negatives tied to GMV softness and one-time cyber-related losses.Positive Updates
Strong cash generation and deleveraging
Net cash provided by operating activities was $123 million, up $97 million year-over-year; free cash flow was $84 million versus negative $10 million a year ago. Trailing 12-month operating cash flow of $425 million and full-year free cash flow guidance raised to $250 million (from $200 million). Net debt was ~$1.3 billion with leverage of 2.6x TTM adjusted EBITDA, down from 2.9x at year-end 2025.
Negative Updates
Acima GMV decline and cyber incident-related losses
Acima GMV was ~$466 million, down ~11% year-over-year and revenue declined ~2.5% year-over-year to $604 million. The company reported elevated fraudulent contract losses of approximately $13 million tied to cybersecurity incidents and expects Acima GMV to be flat to low single-digit negative for the year before returning to growth in Q4.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong cash generation and deleveraging
Net cash provided by operating activities was $123 million, up $97 million year-over-year; free cash flow was $84 million versus negative $10 million a year ago. Trailing 12-month operating cash flow of $425 million and full-year free cash flow guidance raised to $250 million (from $200 million). Net debt was ~$1.3 billion with leverage of 2.6x TTM adjusted EBITDA, down from 2.9x at year-end 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management narrowed full‑year revenue guidance to $4.7–$4.85B, reaffirmed adjusted EBITDA of $500–$535M and non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $4.00–$4.35, and raised free cash flow guidance to ~$250M (from $200M) with TTM operating cash flow of $425M; quarter‑end liquidity was ~$487M, net debt ~$1.3B and leverage ~2.6x TTM adjusted EBITDA (down from 2.9x), with a long‑term leverage target around 2x. For Q3 they guided consolidated revenue of $1.05–$1.15B, adjusted EBITDA of $105–$115M and non‑GAAP EPS of $0.85–$0.95, expecting Q3 GMV down low–mid single digits y/y with sequential improvement and a return to GMV growth in Q4. Segment detail: Acima is expected to deliver 2026 GMV flat to down low single digits with losses stabilizing under ~9% (Q2 lease charge‑offs ~8.8%) and an adjusted EBITDA margin above 16% (Q2 margin 16.2%); Brigit is still targeting >30% annual revenue growth to $265–$285M with adjusted EBITDA $50–$60M, ~1.7M paying users, monthly ARPU $14.30 and net advance loss ~3.6% (mid‑3% expected in Q3); Rent‑A‑Center revenue is expected flat to down low single digits with EBITDA margin roughly flat to 2025 and Q3 lease charge‑offs in the mid‑5% range. Management also funded a $0.39 quarterly dividend (~$23M, ~7.5% yield).Upbound Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.74B | 4.70B | 4.32B | 3.99B | 4.25B | 4.58B |
| Gross Profit | 2.33B | 2.27B | 2.08B | 2.02B | 2.08B | 2.24B |
| EBITDA | 1.76B | 1.74B | 339.01M | 290.54M | 283.05M | 435.01M |
| Net Income | 90.34M | 73.24M | 123.48M | -5.18M | 12.36M | 134.94M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.10B | 3.28B | 2.65B | 2.72B | 2.76B | 2.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 105.30M | 120.53M | 60.86M | 93.70M | 144.14M | 108.33M |
| Total Debt | 1.71B | 1.86B | 1.58B | 1.60B | 1.67B | 1.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.37B | 2.58B | 2.02B | 2.16B | 2.24B | 2.48B |
| Stockholders Equity | 733.35M | 695.74M | 628.98M | 560.37M | 525.15M | 513.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 355.95M | 238.71M | 48.45M | 146.89M | 407.07M | 329.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 425.45M | 305.57M | 104.72M | 200.29M | 468.46M | 392.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -143.57M | -403.73M | -41.51M | -50.96M | -62.33M | -1.34B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -284.47M | 156.47M | -93.52M | -202.12M | -370.71M | 892.85M |
Upbound Group Technical Analysis
Negative
19.36
Price Trends
18.88
Negative
18.94
Negative
18.66
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.90
Positive
24.05
Positive
12.17
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPBD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.48, above the 50-day MA of 18.88, and above the 200-day MA of 18.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.90 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.05 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.17 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UPBD.
Upbound Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $748.58M | 34.16 | 9.35% | ― | 11.10% | 47.69% | |
73 Outperform | $1.90B | 59.71 | 3.36% | ― | 8.57% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $910.64M | 9.91 | 12.76% | 10.04% | 5.85% | -14.82% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
56 Neutral | $1.58B | -11.43 | -14.62% | ― | ― | ― | |
55 Neutral | $1.43B | -31.33 | -12.48% | ― | 27.05% | -12.95% | |
50 Neutral | $243.61M | -13.15 | -1.22% | ― | -10.34% | 49.81% |
* Technology Sector Average
UPBD
Upbound Group
15.62
-5.77
-26.98%
MITK
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16.59
6.82
69.81%
NCNO
nCino
17.95
-8.20
-31.36%
ALKT
Alkami Technology
13.37
-10.61
-44.25%
BLND
Blend Labs
1.03
-2.58
-71.47%
WLTH
Wealthfront Corporation
10.10
-4.09
-28.82%
Upbound Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Upbound Group Names New COO to Drive Integration
Positive
Sep 22, 2026
On September 22, 2026, Upbound Group appointed Scott Young as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, a newly created role that will consolidate oversight of Acima, Brigit and Rent-A-Center under a single operational leader. Young, a...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Upbound Group Posts Solid Q2 Results, Narrows 2026 Outlook
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Upbound Group reported second-quarter 2026 results showing consolidated revenue of about $1.2 billion, with all key metrics landing within prior guidance ranges. The company highlighted robust cash generation, including roughly $...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.