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Upbound Group (UPBD)
NASDAQ:UPBD
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Upbound Group (UPBD) AI Stock Analysis

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UPBD

Upbound Group

(NASDAQ:UPBD)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$20.50
▲(5.78% Upside)
Upbound Group's overall stock score reflects a balance of moderate financial performance and attractive valuation, offset by bearish technical indicators and mixed earnings call results. While the company shows potential for growth, high leverage and macroeconomic challenges pose risks.
Positive Factors
Segment Growth
Consistent growth in the Acima segment highlights Upbound's ability to expand its market presence and leverage operational efficiencies, supporting long-term revenue growth.
Cash Flow Generation
Significant improvement in free cash flow indicates strong cash generation capabilities, enhancing financial flexibility and supporting future investments.
Subscriber Growth
Robust subscriber growth in the Brigit segment underscores Upbound's successful customer acquisition strategies and potential for sustained revenue expansion.
Negative Factors
Legal and Regulatory Challenges
Significant legal and regulatory accruals could impact financial stability and increase operational risks, potentially diverting resources from growth initiatives.
Decline in Rent-A-Center Segment
The decline in the Rent-A-Center segment indicates challenges in maintaining market share and profitability, which could affect overall company performance.
High Lease Charge-Off Rate
An increasing lease charge-off rate suggests rising credit risk, potentially impacting the segment's profitability and cash flow generation.

Upbound Group (UPBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Upbound Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUpbound Group, Inc., an omni-channel platform company, leases household durable goods to customers on a lease-to-own basis in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. The company operates in four segments: Rent-A-Center Business, Acima, Mexico, and Franchising. The company's brands, such as Rent-A-Center and Acima that facilitate consumer transactions across a range of store-based and virtual channels. It offers furniture comprising mattresses, tires, consumer electronics, appliances, tools, handbags, computers, smartphones, and accessories. The company also provides merchandise on an installment sales basis; and the lease-to-own transaction to consumers who do not qualify for financing from the traditional retailer through kiosks located within retailer's locations. It operates retail installment sales stores under the Get It Now and Home Choice names; lease-to-own and franchised lease-to-own stores under the Rent-A-Centre, ColorTyme, and RimTyme names; and company-owned stores and e-commerce platform through rentacenter.com. The company was formerly known as Rent-A-Center, Inc. and changed its name to Upbound Group, Inc. in February 2023. Upbound Group, Inc. was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyUpbound Group generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of software licenses, subscription-based services, and consulting fees. The company charges clients for its cloud management platforms on a subscription basis, providing ongoing updates and support, which ensures a steady income flow. Additionally, consulting services are billed on a project basis or retainer agreements, further diversifying its revenue sources. Key partnerships with major cloud providers and technology firms also play a crucial role in its business model, as they enable Upbound Group to offer integrated solutions that attract more clients and enhance service offerings, ultimately driving profitability.

Upbound Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call indicates a mixed performance for Upbound Group in Q3 2025. While there are strong growth metrics in revenue and specific segments like Brigit and Acima, the company faces challenges with margin pressures at Acima, revenue decline at Rent-A-Center, and macroeconomic headwinds affecting consumer behavior.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Upbound delivered strong Q3 2025 results with revenue up 9% year-over-year to $1.16 billion and adjusted EBITDA up 5.7% year-over-year to $123.6 million.
Brigit's Impressive Performance
Brigit reported revenue growth of 40% and subscriber growth of 27% year-over-year, contributing $9.3 million of adjusted EBITDA at a margin of more than 16%.
Acima GMV Growth
Acima achieved its eighth consecutive quarter of GMV growth, up 11% year-over-year, despite tightening underwriting standards.
New Executive Appointments
Announcement of new Chief Financial Officer, Hal Khouri, and Chief Growth Officer, Rebecca Wooters, to strengthen the executive team.
Free Cash Flow
The company generated more than $50 million of free cash flow in Q3, resulting in a year-to-date total of $167 million.
Negative Updates
Acima Margin and Loss Challenges
Acima's EBITDA margin declined to 12% due to a 50 basis point uptick in lease charge-offs and lower gross margins.
Rent-A-Center Revenue Decline
Rent-A-Center reported a revenue decline of 4.7% year-over-year, attributed to a higher store count in the previous year and strategic exits from product categories.
Macro Economic Challenges
Economic uncertainty, inflation impact, and slowing job growth are pressuring demand and consumer confidence, affecting top line performance.
Acima Loss Rates
Acima's lease charge-off rate increased to 9.7%, above the target range, with expectations for it to peak in the 10% area in Q4.
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2025 Upbound Group, Inc. earnings call, CEO Fahmi Karam shared that the company delivered strong results with a 9% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.16 billion and a 5.7% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $123.6 million. Key highlights included Rent-A-Center's sequential improvement in same-store sales and maintaining robust adjusted EBITDA margins of 16.2%. Brigit achieved 40% revenue growth and a 27% increase in subscribers, while Acima marked its eighth consecutive quarter of GMV growth at 11%, despite tightening underwriting standards. Additionally, the company welcomed new executive leaders, Hal Khouri as CFO and Rebecca Wooters as Chief Growth Officer, to enhance customer experience and accelerate growth. Guidance for the full year 2025 was adjusted to anticipate revenue between $4.6 billion and $4.75 billion, with adjusted EBITDA in the range of $500 million to $510 million.

Upbound Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Upbound Group shows moderate financial health with stable revenue growth and profitability. However, high leverage and declining free cash flow growth present potential risks. Continued focus on improving operational efficiency and cash conversion will be crucial for future stability.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Upbound Group's income statement shows moderate performance with a gross profit margin of 47.78% and a net profit margin of 2.28% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Revenue growth is positive at 1.84% TTM, indicating a recovery from previous declines. However, the EBIT margin of 5.92% suggests room for improvement in operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.70 TTM, indicating significant leverage. Return on equity is 15.68% TTM, showing decent profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio of 22.14% TTM suggests a moderate reliance on equity financing.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -5.57% TTM, but the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 98.64%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.36, indicating some challenges in converting income into cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.58B4.32B3.99B4.25B4.58B2.81B
Gross Profit2.19B2.08B2.02B2.08B2.24B1.67B
EBITDA609.09M339.01M290.54M283.05M435.01M294.77M
Net Income84.48M123.48M-5.18M12.36M134.94M208.12M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.21B2.65B2.72B2.76B2.99B1.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments107.02M60.86M93.70M144.14M108.33M159.45M
Total Debt286.68M1.58B1.60B1.67B1.87B475.84M
Total Liabilities2.52B2.02B2.16B2.24B2.48B1.16B
Stockholders Equity687.30M628.98M560.37M525.15M513.28M592.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow98.97M48.45M146.89M407.07M329.85M201.96M
Operating Cash Flow83.61M104.72M200.29M468.46M392.30M236.50M
Investing Cash Flow-319.11M-41.51M-50.96M-62.33M-1.34B-20.61M
Financing Cash Flow256.95M-93.52M-202.12M-370.71M892.85M-126.68M

Upbound Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price19.38
Price Trends
50DMA
23.60
Negative
100DMA
23.76
Negative
200DMA
23.93
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.57
Positive
RSI
31.42
Neutral
STOCH
32.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPBD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.77, below the 50-day MA of 23.60, and below the 200-day MA of 23.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UPBD.

Upbound Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$1.38B25.1134.42%2.80%18.30%22.19%
-5.41%5.96%50.29%
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
$1.12B10.8115.93%8.05%7.49%84.67%
$1.06B-0.50%22.16%-107.92%
$1.57B32.44-7.41%
$1.33B-33.99%9.93%-11.15%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
UPBD
Upbound Group
19.38
-8.36
-30.14%
PRCH
Porch Group
15.05
12.84
581.00%
SEMR
SEMrush Holdings
7.26
-5.89
-44.79%
KARO
Karooooo
44.58
7.29
19.55%
MLNK
MeridianLink
20.01
-2.20
-9.91%
AMPL
Amplitude
10.05
0.75
8.06%

Upbound Group Corporate Events

Upbound Group Reports Strong Revenue Growth Amid Challenges
Oct 31, 2025

Upbound Group, Inc. is a technology and data-driven company that provides accessible financial solutions through its brands Acima, Brigit, and Rent-A-Center, operating across the United States, Mexico, and Puerto Rico. In its latest earnings report, Upbound Group, Inc. showcased a 9% year-over-year increase in consolidated revenues, reaching $1,164.7 million, primarily due to the acquisition of Brigit and increased rental and merchandise sales revenue. The company also reported a GAAP operating profit of $52.8 million, although this was a decrease from the previous year, with net earnings on a GAAP basis falling to $13.2 million from $30.9 million. Key highlights include Acima’s eighth consecutive quarter of GMV growth, with an 11% year-over-year increase, and Brigit’s impressive over 40% revenue growth year-over-year. However, the Rent-A-Center segment saw a decline in revenue by 4.7% year-over-year, attributed to a reduction in company-owned store count. Despite these challenges, Upbound Group remains optimistic about its future, with management focusing on enhancing offerings and maintaining a disciplined approach to risk management. The company is also looking forward to the contributions of its newly appointed Chief Financial Officer and Chief Growth Officer as it aims to deliver strong financial performance and meet the needs of underserved consumers.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Upbound Group Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Oct 30, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Upbound Group, Inc. announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a consolidated revenue growth of 9% year-over-year, reaching $1.2 billion. Notable achievements include Acima’s continued growth with an 11% increase in GMV and a 10.4% rise in revenue, Brigit’s 40.2% revenue growth driven by subscriber and ARPU increases, and Rent-A-Center’s improved same-store sales. The company also reported strong cash flow generation and appointed new leadership, with expectations of stabilizing Rent-A-Center sales in the fourth quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPBD) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Upbound Group stock, see the UPBD Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Upbound Group Appoints New CFO Hal Khouri
Positive
Oct 30, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Upbound Group, Inc. announced the appointment of Hal Khouri as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective November 10, 2025. Mr. Khouri, who brings over 30 years of experience in consumer-based banking and financial services, will succeed Fahmi Karam, the current CEO who has been serving as CFO since June 2025. This strategic appointment is expected to enhance Upbound’s financial operations and support its long-term growth objectives, as Mr. Khouri will oversee financial operations, capital allocation, and investor relations. His extensive background in strategic financial governance and leadership is anticipated to drive value for Upbound’s customers, merchant partners, and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPBD) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Upbound Group stock, see the UPBD Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Upbound Group Amends Loan Agreement, Secures $77M
Neutral
Aug 19, 2025

On August 19, 2025, Upbound Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries amended their Term Loan Credit Agreement, extending the loan maturity date to August 19, 2032, and securing $77 million in additional commitments, bringing total borrowings to $875 million. The company plans to use these funds for fees, expenses related to the amendment, working capital, and general corporate purposes, potentially including repayment of part of its revolving credit facility.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPBD) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Upbound Group stock, see the UPBD Stock Forecast page.

Upbound Group’s Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges
Aug 6, 2025

The recent earnings call for Upbound Group, Inc. presented a mixed sentiment, with notable growth in the Acima and Brigit segments driving overall revenue and EBITDA growth. However, challenges in the Rent-A-Center segment and ongoing legal issues somewhat dampened these positive outcomes. The company’s focus on digital transformation and strategic initiatives suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for future growth.

Upbound Group Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results
Aug 1, 2025

Upbound Group, Inc. is a technology and data-driven company that provides financial solutions to underserved consumers through its brands Acima, Brigit, and Rent-A-Center, operating across various retail and digital channels in the United States, Mexico, and Puerto Rico.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Upbound Group Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

On July 31, 2025, Upbound Group, Inc. announced its financial results for the second quarter ending June 30, 2025, reporting total revenue of $1,158 million. The company achieved a GAAP diluted EPS of $0.26 and a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.12. The results reflect the company’s focus on addressing the needs of underserved consumers through its diverse brand portfolio. The announcement highlights Upbound’s strategic positioning in the financial solutions industry and its ongoing commitment to growth and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPBD) stock is a Buy with a $41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Upbound Group stock, see the UPBD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2025