Umicore SA (UMICY) AI Stock Analysis

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Umicore SA

(Other OTC:UMICY)

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Rating:62Neutral

Price Target:$5.00▲(1.69% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/04/26

The score is driven primarily by improving operating performance and cash generation, supported by a positive earnings update and upgraded 2026 EBITDA guidance. The main constraint is balance-sheet pressure (still-elevated leverage and declining equity), while technical signals are mixed and not yet strongly bullish. Valuation helps with a moderate P/E and a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Operating performanceBroad-based improvement in revenue, EBITDA and margins indicates stronger operating execution across the portfolio. Higher profitability and a 23% ROCE provide more internal capacity to fund investment, absorb volatility and reinforce competitiveness over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Balance-sheet pressureElevated leverage and a materially smaller equity base reduce financial flexibility if earnings weaken or investment needs rise. Although debt has declined from 2024, the balance sheet remains less able to absorb another downturn without constraining capital allocation or increasing financing pressure.

Umicore SA (UMICY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $4.71B
Dividend Yield: 2.98%
Average Volume (3M): 42.79K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.7
Beta (1Y): 1.06
Revenue Growth: 63.84%
EPS Growth: 303.96%
Country: US
Employees: 11,230
Sector: Industrials
Sector Strength: 63
Industry: Other Precious Metals

Umicore SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Umicore SA engages in the materials technology business. It operates through the following business segments: Catalysis, Energy & Surface Technologies, Recycling, and Corporate. The Catalysis segment is composed of automotive catalysts for gasoline a...

How the Company Makes Money

Umicore makes money primarily by selling advanced materials and by earning processing and metal recovery value from recycling and refining. A significant revenue stream comes from its battery materials business, where it supplies cathode active mater...

Umicore SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-18.82%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented strong, broad‑based H1 2026 financial and operational results — revenue growth (+7%), large EBITDA and margin expansion (+33% EBITDA; margin +~600 bps to 30.2%), improved returns (ROCE to 23%), substantial cash generation (operating cash flow EUR 565m, FOCF EUR 295m) and an upgraded full‑year EBITDA guidance (>EUR 1bn). Segment highlights include an outstanding Recycling margin (~52%), Specialty Materials double‑digit growth, and a Battery Cathode EBITDA turnaround (EUR 90m) though volumes remain flat. Key risks and offsets are that H1 benefited from exceptional metal‑price tailwinds (especially Q1) that are expected to moderate, H2 is guided to be lower than H1, certain areas remain loss‑making or negative (Battery Recycling, fuel cell catalysts in China), and some performance depends on contractual take‑or‑pay protections. On balance the strong operational execution, improved cash generation, upgraded guidance and robust balance sheet outweigh the transitory headwinds and execution‑timing risks.

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth

Group revenues grew 7% year‑on‑year to EUR 1.9 billion in H1 2026.

Negative Updates

H1 Tailwind May Not Persist into H2 / 2027

Management warned that H1 benefited from a pronounced metal‑price tailwind (especially Q1) and exceptional conditions that are not expected to continue; they expect H2 to be lower than H1 and normalization into 2027.

Company Guidance

Umicore upgraded full‑year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to slightly above EUR 1.0 billion (previously to approach EUR 1.0 billion), supported by a strong H1 with revenues up 7% to EUR 1.9 billion, adjusted EBITDA up 33% to EUR 577 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~30.2%; ROCE improved to 23%, free operating cash flow was EUR 295 million, cash on hand EUR 1.8 billion with EUR 1.1 billion undrawn facilities and net debt around EUR 1.5 billion (leverage ~1.5x). Management’s upgrade assumes stable metal prices vs June 2026 and no major macro deterioration; segment guidance: Catalysis EBITDA expected in line with 2025’s record, Recycling FY EBITDA likely significantly above 2025 (H2 to be lower than H1), Specialty Materials materially above last year (slowing in H2), Battery Materials volumes stable YoY with growing reliance on take‑or‑pay; CapEx expected to be in line with 2025 and hedges in place for key metals up to 2029–2030.

Umicore SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show improvement but with balance-sheet risk. Income statement rebounded in 2025 (revenue +15.6% and net income back to +369M after a 2024 loss), and cash flow is positive with higher free cash flow (321M). Offsetting this, leverage remains elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.27) and equity has fallen materially since 2023, reducing flexibility if earnings weaken again.

Income Statement

56Neutral

Balance Sheet

44Neutral

Cash Flow

60Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	24.80B	18.61B	14.85B	18.27B	25.44B	24.05B
Gross Profit	-5.26B	1.34B	2.21B	1.52B	1.67B	1.57B
EBITDA	1.42B	1.17B	-998.66M	1.09B	1.08B	1.19B
Net Income	477.19M	369.32M	-1.48B	385.07M	569.88M	618.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.06B	9.46B	9.41B	9.97B	9.94B	9.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.80B	1.56B	2.01B	1.52B	1.24B	1.19B
Total Debt	3.25B	2.84B	3.45B	2.75B	2.35B	2.16B
Total Liabilities	7.61B	7.18B	7.49B	6.27B	6.38B	5.88B
Stockholders Equity	2.41B	2.24B	1.94B	3.66B	3.52B	3.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	664.88M	321.49M	286.50M	157.92M	142.88M	842.15M
Operating Cash Flow	979.18M	596.01M	868.70M	1.04B	634.17M	1.26B
Investing Cash Flow	-562.96M	-542.99M	-775.70M	-948.70M	-480.77M	-471.45M
Financing Cash Flow	272.98M	-568.83M	413.50M	129.28M	-112.53M	-602.37M

Umicore SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price4.92

Price Trends

50DMA6.04Negative

100DMA6.12Negative

200DMA5.89Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.29Positive

RSI30.27Neutral

STOCH38.65Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UMICY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.47, below the 50-day MA of 6.04, and below the 200-day MA of 5.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UMICY.

Umicore SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

UMICY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
UMICY	62Neutral	$4.75B	8.68	23.93%	2.98%	63.84%	303.96%
SBSW	55Neutral	$6.06B	6.26	34.68%	9.36%	59.20%	―
ELVR	49Neutral	$431.30M	5.32	7.25%	―	-4.05%	―
TMC	44Neutral	$1.15B	-3.04	948.80%	―	―	-97.40%
LZM	42Neutral	$343.47M	-14.17	-27.57%	―	―	―

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

UMICY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
UMICY	Umicore (OTC)	4.92	0.24	5.06%
SBSW	Sibanye Stillwater Limited	8.59	-1.31	-13.21%
TMC	TMC the metals company Inc.	2.60	-3.80	-59.38%
LZM	Lifezone Metals Limited	3.82	-0.83	-17.85%
ELVR	Sayona Mining Limited Unsponsored ADR	21.96	-4.95	-18.39%
PHOS	First Phosphate Corp. Sponsored ADR	12.24	6.34	107.42%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 04, 2026

Umicore SA AI Stock Analysis