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Trade Desk
(NASDAQ:TTD)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$22.00
▼(-2.09% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/13/26
TTD scores well on financial quality (strong growth, margins, and free cash flow) and a constructive earnings outlook that maintains long-term profitability targets despite near-term macro headwinds. The main offset is a weaker technical setup (below key longer-term moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation appears reasonable for the profile.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, large operating cash flows and very strong free cash flow growth provide durable funding for product R&D, retail/media integrations, buybacks and strategic investments. High cash conversion cushions cyclical ad spend swings and supports multi-year execution without heavy external financing.
Negative Factors
Geographic revenue concentration
Heavy reliance on U.S. advertisers concentrates exposure to a single ad market and cyclicality in U.S. demand. That geographic skew limits natural revenue diversification, makes results sensitive to U.S. macro or regulatory shifts, and slows resilience to regional advertiser growth opportunities.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, large operating cash flows and very strong free cash flow growth provide durable funding for product R&D, retail/media integrations, buybacks and strategic investments. High cash conversion cushions cyclical ad spend swings and supports multi-year execution without heavy external financing.
Read all positive factors
Trade Desk Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Spend
The total advertising dollars transacted through Trade Desk’s platform, reflecting demand, client adoption, and overall platform scale. Growth in gross spend drives future revenue potential but can mask margin effects since most spend is passed on to publishers and exchanges.
The total advertising dollars transacted through Trade Desk’s platform, reflecting demand, client adoption, and overall platform scale. Growth in gross spend drives future revenue potential but can mask margin effects since most spend is passed on to publishers and exchanges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTrade Desk (TTD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.74B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)17.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.9
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth15.55%
EPS Growth6.91%
CountryUS
Employees3,843
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryAdvertising Agencies
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.89
Shares Outstanding426,999,730
10 Day Avg. Volume11,153,280
30 Day Avg. Volume17,595,707
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.75
Price to Book (P/B)7.33
Price to Sales (P/S)6.29
P/FCF Ratio22.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.22Price Target Upside7.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering26
EPS Forecast (FY)0.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.18B
Trade Desk Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Trade Desk, Inc. is a global technology company that provides a self-service, cloud-based platform. This platform enables advertising buyers to efficiently create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital ad campaigns across diverse formats an...
How the Company Makes Money
The Trade Desk primarily makes money by charging platform fees tied to customers’ programmatic advertising spend executed through its DSP. In practice, when an advertiser (often via an agency) uses The Trade Desk to buy ad inventory through real-t...
Trade Desk Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted durable, structural strengths—profitable growth, strong cash generation, meaningful product and partnership momentum (CTV, audio, retail data, Audience Unlimited, agentic AI), and robust JBP traction—while acknowledging near-term headwinds driven by macro uncertainty, category-specific softening (CPG, auto tariffs), elevated operating expenses ex-SBC, and some leadership/agency noise. Management provided conservative near-term guidance but reiterated confidence in long-term TAM expansion and a disciplined reinvestment strategy.Positive Updates
Revenue and Profitability
Q1 revenue $689M, up 12% year-over-year; net income $40M ($0.08 diluted, ~6% of revenue); adjusted net income $134M ($0.28 diluted).
Negative Updates
Near-Term Deceleration and Macro Uncertainty
Management highlighted a cloudier macro environment with geopolitical tensions, tariffs and consumer pressures leading to a deceleration into Q2; Q2 guide reflects caution despite long-term conviction.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Profitability
Q1 revenue $689M, up 12% year-over-year; net income $40M ($0.08 diluted, ~6% of revenue); adjusted net income $134M ($0.28 diluted).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 revenue of at least $750 million and Q2 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $260 million, and reiterated full‑year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 40% (roughly in line with 2025); as context they reported Q1 revenue of $689M (12% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $206M (30% margin), net income $40M ($0.08 diluted, ~6% of revenue), adjusted net income $134M ($0.28 diluted), operating expenses $622M (+11%; $513M ex‑SBC, +18%), income tax $39M, net cash from operations $392M, free cash flow $276M, cash/short‑term investments ~$1.4B, and $164M of share repurchases in Q1; channel and regional mix included video (CTV) in the low‑50s% of revenue, mobile in the high‑20s, display in the low‑teens, audio ~6% (fastest growing), US ~82%/international ~18%; they also flagged commercial momentum—March record 45 JBPs, Q1 JBP count +55% YoY, new JBP spend +40% YoY (ex renewals), a pharma win (+114% YoY spend), and product test KPIs for Audience Unlimited (−30% CPM, −38% data costs, −75% CPA, 2.7x conversion).Trade Desk Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.97B | 2.90B | 2.44B | 1.95B | 1.58B | 1.20B |
| Gross Profit | 2.31B | 2.28B | 1.97B | 1.58B | 1.30B | 974.91M |
| EBITDA | 785.55M | 774.54M | 594.79M | 348.41M | 181.79M | 165.28M |
| Net Income | 432.62M | 443.30M | 393.08M | 178.94M | 53.38M | 137.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.73B | 6.15B | 6.11B | 4.89B | 4.38B | 3.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.41B | 1.30B | 1.92B | 1.38B | 1.45B | 958.78M |
| Total Debt | 423.57M | 436.33M | 312.21M | 235.89M | 260.96M | 284.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.28B | 3.67B | 3.16B | 2.72B | 2.27B | 2.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.45B | 2.48B | 2.95B | 2.16B | 2.12B | 1.53B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 836.72M | 795.71M | 632.39M | 543.30M | 456.85M | 318.54M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.09B | 992.72M | 739.46M | 598.32M | 548.73M | 378.51M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -159.58M | -292.63M | -157.51M | -107.59M | -304.37M | -93.64M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.17B | -1.41B | -107.61M | -626.11M | 31.99M | 31.93M |
Trade Desk Technical Analysis
Negative
22.47
Price Trends
19.99
Negative
21.89
Negative
30.82
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.23
Negative
44.33
Neutral
20.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TTD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.78, above the 50-day MA of 19.99, and below the 200-day MA of 30.82, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TTD.
Trade Desk Risk Analysis
Trade Desk disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trade Desk reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Trade Desk Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $2.72B | 17.11 | 18.57% | ― | 7.10% | 404.29% | |
77 Outperform | $92.08B | 683.99 | 3.78% | ― | 29.54% | -21.11% | |
76 Outperform | $10.07B | 33.31 | 16.36% | ― | 8.42% | -70.89% | |
74 Outperform | $8.74B | 20.89 | 16.91% | ― | 15.55% | 6.91% | |
68 Neutral | $753.64M | 83.04 | 16.65% | ― | 18.15% | 331.16% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $591.22M | -34.45 | -6.98% | ― | -2.33% | -425.96% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TTD
Trade Desk
18.64
-61.39
-76.71%
MGNI
Magnite
18.97
-5.45
-22.32%
DOCU
DocuSign
52.30
-27.04
-34.08%
DDOG
Datadog
263.20
117.93
81.18%
PUBM
PubMatic
13.09
0.30
2.35%
DSP
Viant Technology
11.90
-1.64
-12.11%
Trade Desk Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Trade Desk Adds AI-Focused Veteran Penry Price to Board
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
On July 7, 2026, The Trade Desk’s board of directors appointed advertising industry veteran Penry Price as a Class II director, effective July 9, 2026, expanding the board from six to seven members. Price will serve on the audit committee an...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Trade Desk Adds Veteran Executive David Haddad to Board
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
On June 5, 2026, The Trade Desk’s board of directors appointed veteran media and entertainment executive David Haddad as a Class III director and member of its audit committee, effective June 11, 2026, expanding the board from five to six me...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Trade Desk Appoints Nate Olmstead as New CFO
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
On June 1, 2026, The Trade Desk announced that industry veteran Nate Olmstead will become chief financial officer on July 9, 2026, succeeding interim CFO Tahnil Davis, who returns to her prior role as chief accounting officer. Olmstead brings exte...
Executive/Board Changes
Trade Desk Aligns Compensation for New Non-Employee Director
Neutral
May 29, 2026
On May 24, 2026, The Trade Desk’s board of directors approved former company officer Samantha Jacobson’s participation in its non-employee director compensation program, aligning her pay with other outside directors following her trans...
Executive/Board Changes
Trade Desk Chief Strategy Officer Resigns, Remains on Board
Neutral
May 8, 2026
On May 7, 2026, The Trade Desk announced that Chief Strategy Officer Samantha Jacobson had notified the company of her intention to resign from her executive role, effective May 18, 2026. She will, however, remain on the company’s board of d...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Trade Desk Stockholders Approve Directors and Governance Matters
Positive
May 8, 2026
On May 4, 2026, The Trade Desk held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, with 361,204,763 of 470,097,769 outstanding common shares represented, constituting a quorum and delivering 748,851,674 votes. Stockholders voted as a single class on mos...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Trade Desk Expands and Extends Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Apr 20, 2026
On April 14, 2026, The Trade Desk entered into an amended and restated loan and security agreement that refinances and extends its revolving credit facility with a bank syndicate led by JPMorgan Chase to a new maturity date of April 14, 2031. The ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.