Waste Connections (WCN) AI Stock Analysis

Waste Connections

(TSX:WCN)

Select Model

Rating:69Neutral

Price Target:CAD 284.00▲(9.01% Upside)

Action:downgraded

Date:10/23/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and operating cash generation, supported by a constructive earnings outlook with raised 2026 guidance and positive 2027 free-cash-flow-per-share expectations. These positives are tempered by higher leverage and weaker recent trends in revenue and free cash flow, while technicals are strong but appear overextended and valuation is expensive (high P/E with a low dividend yield).

Positive Factors

Integrated recurring-service modelThe company combines recurring collection relationships with transfer, transportation, landfill and recycling assets, allowing it to capture revenue across the waste chain. This integrated model can support route density, customer retention and stronger unit economics over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Higher financial leverageHigher leverage reduces financial flexibility compared with prior years and makes a larger portion of future cash generation necessary for debt-related obligations. It can constrain acquisition capacity, buybacks and investment if operating conditions weaken or interest costs remain elevated.

Waste Connections (WCN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Market Cap: CAD 46.07B
Dividend Yield: 0.76%
Average Volume (3M): 379.99K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.3
Beta (1Y): 0.27
Revenue Growth: 5.54%
EPS Growth: 84.19%
Country: Canada
Employees: 24,214
Sector: Industrials
Sector Strength: 63
Industry: Waste Management

Waste Connections Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Waste Connections, Inc. is a prominent provider of comprehensive waste management services across the United States and Canada, specializing in the collection, transfer, disposal, and resource recovery of non-hazardous materials. The company offers c...

How the Company Makes Money

Waste Connections makes money by charging customers and municipalities recurring fees to collect, move, process, and dispose of non-hazardous solid waste and recyclable materials. Its core revenue model is service-based and largely contractual, with...

Waste Connections Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 20, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:10.18%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive, with Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA above expectations, underlying margin expansion despite higher diesel costs, improved landfill and special-waste volumes, raised 2026 guidance, strong capital returns and a constructive 2027 growth framework. The company still faces negative unit volumes, fuel-cost pressure, weakness in plastics and residential construction, uncertain E&P activity, and ongoing Chiquita-related spending, but management characterized operating performance, liquidity and strategic positioning as strong.

Positive Updates

Q3 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Beat Expectations

Third-quarter revenue was $2.638 billion, up $180 million or 7.3% year-over-year and above expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was $895.8 million, up 7.9% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34%.

Negative Updates

Solid Waste Unit Volumes Remained Negative

Solid waste unit volumes declined 1.2% year-over-year in Q3, although this represented a sequential improvement of 70 basis points from Q2.

Company Guidance

For 2026, the company raised its outlook to revenue of approximately $10.09 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $3.345 billion or 33.2%, and adjusted free cash flow of at least $1.4 billion; Q4 guidance implies revenue of about $2.52 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.3%, up 20 basis points, excluding fuel. For 2027, the framework assumes mid- to high single-digit revenue growth, including about 1% combined rollover from acquisitions already completed and RNG facilities brought online in 2026, or a normalized acquisition contribution of 1% to 2%, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in what we would consider a normalized range from solid waste, and double-digit growth in adjusted free cash flow per share; longer term, free cash flow conversion is expected to return to 48% to 50% from around 42%, with about $75 million of RNG spend this year largely not repeating, while pricing is generally expected to maintain a 150 basis point spread between price and cost.

Waste Connections Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid with resilient profitability (TTM net margin ~11.4%, EBITDA margin ~32.1%) and strong operating cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$2.50B). Offsetting this strength are a notable TTM revenue decline (~-10.8%), margin step-down versus 2025 (gross margin ~39.4% vs. ~42.4%), higher leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.24), and a sharp TTM free cash flow decline (~-40.1%).

Income Statement

74Positive

Balance Sheet

63Positive

Cash Flow

66Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.65B	9.47B	8.92B	8.02B	7.21B	6.15B
Gross Profit	3.92B	4.01B	3.73B	3.28B	2.88B	2.50B
EBITDA	2.73B	2.98B	2.25B	2.26B	2.17B	1.75B
Net Income	1.13B	1.08B	617.57M	762.80M	835.66M	618.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	21.37B	21.13B	19.82B	17.92B	17.13B	14.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	95.08M	45.97M	62.37M	78.40M	78.64M	147.44M
Total Debt	9.71B	9.13B	8.39B	7.02B	7.10B	5.21B
Total Liabilities	13.54B	12.88B	11.96B	10.22B	10.02B	7.71B
Stockholders Equity	7.83B	8.25B	7.86B	7.69B	7.11B	6.99B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.17B	1.22B	1.17B	1.19B	1.11B	953.91M
Operating Cash Flow	2.50B	2.41B	2.23B	2.13B	2.02B	1.70B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.88B	-2.02B	-3.16B	-1.58B	-3.09B	-1.69B
Financing Cash Flow	-630.44M	-360.04M	944.95M	-544.40M	1.03B	-499.50M

Waste Connections Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price260.52

Price Trends

50DMA229.35Positive

100DMA230.95Positive

200DMA226.35Positive

Market Momentum

MACD9.13Negative

RSI69.03Neutral

STOCH70.50Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WCN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 260.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 237.05, above the 50-day MA of 229.35, and above the 200-day MA of 226.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:WCN.

Waste Connections Risk Analysis

Waste Connections disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Waste Connections reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Production - Risks related to the company’s ability to manufacture goods and services

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Waste Connections Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

TSE:WCN against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSE:WCN	69Neutral	CAD 64.26B	41.27	14.18%	0.76%	5.54%	84.19%
Sector *	63Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
TSE:GFL	61Neutral	CAD 27.51B	-62.99	-4.32%	0.15%	7.49%	79.67%
TSE:ANRG	55Neutral	CAD 325.93M	20.66	-29.88%	―	101.45%	―
TSE:BLM	47Neutral	CAD 44.63M	-8.58	-14.00%	―	39.33%	-660.48%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:WCN and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
TSE:WCN	Waste Connections	256.84	25.88	11.21%
TSE:BLM	BluMetric Environmental	0.81	-0.73	-47.40%
TSE:BQE	Bqe Water Inc.	69.00	14.16	25.82%
TSE:GFL	Gfl Environmental Inc	63.10	1.69	2.75%
TSE:ANRG	Anaergia, Inc.	1.87	-0.56	-23.05%

Waste Connections Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Waste Connections Sets October Dates for Q3 2026 Earnings Release and Investor Call

Neutral

Sep 30, 2026

Waste Connections, Inc. will release its third-quarter 2026 financial results after market close on October 21, 2026, followed by an investor conference call on October 22 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. A live audio webcast, preregistration options for d...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2026

Waste Connections AI Stock Analysis