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Thinkific Labs
(TSX:THNC)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
C$1.00
▼(-28.57% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is primarily supported by strong recent revenue growth, high gross margins, and a low-debt balance sheet. It is held back by inconsistent profitability and weakening free cash flow, cautious near-term guidance with EBITDA losses tied to elevated R&D/AI spending, and a weak technical trend with the stock trading below major moving averages.
Positive Factors
High Gross Margins
Consistently high gross margins (~71–76%) indicate durable unit economics across subscription and commerce lines. That margin profile supports scalable customer acquisition, funds ongoing product development, and provides operating leverage as revenue grows, helping sustain long‑term profitability potential despite near‑term investments.
Negative Factors
Profitability Pressure
Rising R&D and broader OpEx tied to the AI/upmarket pivot drove an adjusted EBITDA loss and guidance for continued margin drag. If investments take longer to monetize, sustained elevated operating costs could prolong inconsistent profitability and compress returns even as top‑line growth continues.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Gross Margins
Consistently high gross margins (~71–76%) indicate durable unit economics across subscription and commerce lines. That margin profile supports scalable customer acquisition, funds ongoing product development, and provides operating leverage as revenue grows, helping sustain long‑term profitability potential despite near‑term investments.
Read all positive factors
Thinkific Labs (THNC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$76.17M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)67.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth6.79%
EPS Growth-119.91%
CountryCA
Employees275
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)>-0.01
Shares Outstanding67,408,714
10 Day Avg. Volume52,103
30 Day Avg. Volume67,633
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.11
Price to Book (P/B)2.23
Price to Sales (P/S)1.29
P/FCF Ratio17.73
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$2.00Price Target Upside42.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$75.97M
Thinkific Labs Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Thinkific Labs Inc. offers and maintains a web-based platform, catering to clients across Canada, the United States, and global markets. This digital solution empowers individual entrepreneurs and established businesses to construct, promote, sell...
How the Company Makes Money
Thinkific primarily makes money through subscription-based SaaS revenue paid by customers who use its platform. Key revenue streams include: (1) Recurring subscription fees: customers pay monthly or annual fees for access to Thinkific’s platform, ...
Thinkific Labs Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced tangible operational and product progress—most notably AI product launch (Thinker), Plus segment momentum, GPV/commerce gains and roadmap initiatives—with clear near-term tradeoffs: higher R&D/OpEx, a small adjusted EBITDA loss, gross margin pressure from mix, and cautious Q2 guidance. Management emphasized a strategic pivot (upmarket + AI) that should create longer-term upside, but acknowledged transitional execution risk and near-term volatility.Positive Updates
Solid Top-Line Performance
Q1 revenue of $18.7M, up 5% year-over-year; total ARR of $61.3M, up 2% YoY and up $0.3M sequentially; ARPU $175, up 4% YoY and flat sequentially.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Loss and Near-Term Profit Pressure
Adjusted EBITDA loss of approximately $0.5M in Q1; company expects Q2 adjusted EBITDA in the range of -2% to -5% of revenue, reflecting continued near-term profitability pressure due to investments and one-time items.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Top-Line Performance
Q1 revenue of $18.7M, up 5% year-over-year; total ARR of $61.3M, up 2% YoY and up $0.3M sequentially; ARPU $175, up 4% YoY and flat sequentially.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Thinkific guided Q2 FY26 revenue of $18.2–$18.5 million (≈1% year‑over‑year growth at the midpoint) with adjusted EBITDA expected to be a loss of roughly 2%–5% of revenue, noting the range assumes continued stable gains in Plus subscriptions offset by a seasonal slowdown in commerce and includes one‑time company‑wide and CPTO transition costs; for context, Q1 results were revenue $18.7M (+5% Y/Y), Plus $5.1M (+12% Y/Y), commerce revenue >$3.5M, gross margin 72% (‑2 pts Y/Y), ARPU $175 (+4% Y/Y), ARR $61.3M (+2% Y/Y, +$0.3M sequential), GPV $75.7M (+16% Y/Y), GMV $117.5M (+1% Y/Y), take rate 4.3% (from 4.5%), total OpEx $15.3M, R&D $7.1M, adjusted EBITDA ≈‑$0.5M, and cash $49.4M (down from $50.7M); management highlighted AI and R&D investments as the primary near‑term drivers of margin pressure and emphasized stable Plus momentum.Thinkific Labs Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 74.02M | 74.47M | 66.94M | 59.05M | 51.48M | 38.12M |
| Gross Profit | 53.08M | 53.10M | 50.31M | 44.56M | 39.11M | 29.21M |
| EBITDA | -1.66M | 14.24K | -1.06M | -9.26M | -29.75M | -23.63M |
| Net Income | -200.46K | 1.31M | -237.00K | -9.78M | -41.90M | -28.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 61.66M | 62.66M | 61.37M | 97.79M | 102.97M | 132.40M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 49.45M | 50.60M | 49.49M | 86.61M | 93.85M | 126.05M |
| Total Debt | 1.39M | 1.47M | 1.77M | 1.03M | 1.96M | 875.26K |
| Total Liabilities | 19.80M | 19.49M | 19.77M | 15.85M | 15.12M | 10.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 41.86M | 43.18M | 41.59M | 81.94M | 87.85M | 121.61M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.05M | 5.42M | 6.75M | -5.44M | -27.11M | -18.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.25M | 5.69M | 6.99M | -5.43M | -25.85M | -18.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -43.33M | -43.39M | -166.00K | 53.37K | -1.26M | -655.16K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.87M | -4.83M | -42.60M | -2.41M | -241.18K | 138.26M |
Thinkific Labs Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$878.64M | 12.45 | 11.97% | 5.69% | -4.08% | -7.65% | |
73 Outperform | C$8.66B | 34.83 | 11.26% | ― | 11.62% | 19.63% | |
71 Outperform | C$667.06M | 15.32 | 89.83% | ― | 11.83% | 57.19% | |
69 Neutral | C$7.76B | 11.20 | 12.93% | 3.27% | -0.86% | -16.61% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | C$76.17M | -275.03 | -0.47% | ― | 6.79% | -119.91% | |
58 Neutral | C$1.97B | -9.83 | -9.59% | ― | 13.25% | 77.06% |
* Technology Sector Average
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Thinkific Labs Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Thinkific CEO Greg Smith Assumes Direct Control of R&D to Speed AI Innovation
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
Thinkific has announced that CEO Greg Smith will assume direct oversight of the company’s product and technology organizations, taking charge of its RD teams following the departure of Ryan Donovan. Supported by existing vice presidents in c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.