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Rogers Sugar
(TSX:RSI)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
C$7.50
â–²(8.70% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is driven primarily by stable profitability and an improving leverage profile, tempered by weak recent free cash flow and slight top-line contraction. Valuation is supportive (reasonable P/E and ~5.25% yield), while technicals are mixed with muted momentum. Earnings call takeaways are moderately constructive (raised volume outlook and LEAP on track) but balanced by near-term revenue/segment softness and financing/trade headwinds.
Positive Factors
LEAP capacity expansion
The LEAP project adds incremental refining capacity and was reported on schedule and on budget, which should increase throughput and lower per-unit costs over time. Successful commissioning in H1 2027 materially strengthens long-term supply capability and margin potential.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow
Negative trailing free cash flow constrains internal funding for capex, working capital and dividends, increasing reliance on external financing. With LEAP capex and elevated drawn balances, persistent weak FCF would pressure flexibility and raise funding costs over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
LEAP capacity expansion
The LEAP project adds incremental refining capacity and was reported on schedule and on budget, which should increase throughput and lower per-unit costs over time. Successful commissioning in H1 2027 materially strengthens long-term supply capability and margin potential.
Read all positive factors
Rogers Sugar (RSI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$874.10M
Dividend Yield5.29%
Average Volume (3M)206.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.5
Beta (1Y)0.19
Revenue Growth-5.74%
EPS Growth-3.64%
CountryCA
Employees944
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Confectioners
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.50
Shares Outstanding128,543,780
10 Day Avg. Volume209,079
30 Day Avg. Volume206,058
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-6.50
Price to Book (P/B)1.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio24.91
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$6.75Price Target Upside-2.17% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.19B
Rogers Sugar Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rogers Sugar Inc. focuses on the refinement, packaging, and commercialization of various sugar and maple-derived goods. The company's business activities are structured around two main divisions: Sugar and Maple Products. Its extensive product ran...
How the Company Makes Money
Rogers Sugar makes money primarily by selling refined sugar and sugar-containing products, and secondarily by producing and selling maple syrup and maple-derived products. Its revenue model is largely volume-driven (tonnes of sugar or litres of ma...
Rogers Sugar Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a cautiously positive picture: meaningful strategic and operational progress (LEAP commissioning on track, multi-year labor agreements, YTD EBITDA improvement, steady free cash flow and maintained dividend) offset by short-term revenue and quarterly earnings softness, Maple segment weakness, and persistent trade and market uncertainties. Management emphasizes cost discipline and execution while retaining financial flexibility to complete LEAP.Positive Updates
LEAP Project on Schedule and On Budget
LEAP Project entering final phase with most major equipment installed; raw sugar melting process successfully tested. Project spending to date $207M and total expected cost maintained at $280M–$300M, with incremental refining capacity expected to start coming online in H1 calendar 2027.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue Decline
Revenues were $294M in Q3 vs $320M in the same quarter last year, a decrease of 8%, primarily driven by lower average Raw #11 prices and reduced volumes.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
LEAP Project on Schedule and On Budget
LEAP Project entering final phase with most major equipment installed; raw sugar melting process successfully tested. Project spending to date $207M and total expected cost maintained at $280M–$300M, with incremental refining capacity expected to start coming online in H1 calendar 2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call was that Rogers expects solid fiscal 2026 results: it modestly raised full‑year sugar volume guidance to 745,000 metric tonnes (Q3 sugar sales ~188,000 mt, down ~3,000 mt YoY) and expects LEAP’s incremental refining capacity to begin ramping in H1 calendar 2027 with total LEAP cost still forecast at $280–$300 million (spent to date $207 million); Q3 adjusted net earnings were $16 million ($0.13/share) and consolidated adjusted EBITDA $36 million (Q3), with YTD adjusted EBITDA $121 million (vs $111M prior year) and YTD adjusted net earnings $60 million ($0.47/share, +$7M); Q3 revenue was $294 million (-8% YoY), trailing‑12‑month free cash flow $90 million, drawn revolver $116 million, convertible debentures outstanding $173 million, revolver extended to July 2031, and a quarterly dividend of $0.09/share declared; management expects stable margins into Q4/2027, Montreal refinery at full capacity, modestly higher production/maintenance costs, Maple results below 2025, and multi‑year labor agreements through May 2031 (Montreal) and March 2032 (Taber).Rogers Sugar Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.22B | 1.31B | 1.23B | 1.10B | 1.01B | 893.93M |
| Gross Profit | 199.73M | 192.24M | 175.87M | 165.73M | 130.81M | 139.74M |
| EBITDA | 152.46M | 137.76M | 122.88M | 119.50M | 41.02M | 108.07M |
| Net Income | 66.93M | 64.45M | 53.73M | 51.79M | -16.57M | 47.53M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.25B | 1.16B | 1.08B | 960.90M | 937.96M | 879.93M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.07M | 8.54M | 19.12M | 46.00K | 151.00K | 15.64M |
| Total Debt | 431.89M | 387.74M | 380.88M | 438.37M | 397.79M | 361.82M |
| Total Liabilities | 768.53M | 704.39M | 656.33M | 654.00M | 646.54M | 560.97M |
| Stockholders Equity | 482.99M | 458.45M | 422.41M | 306.90M | 291.42M | 318.96M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -25.05M | 32.75M | 13.71M | 8.92M | -2.18M | 53.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 83.23M | 121.44M | 79.79M | 44.32M | 21.55M | 78.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -108.28M | -88.69M | -66.08M | -35.40M | -23.73M | -24.68M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.45M | -43.36M | 5.36M | -8.89M | -13.55M | -40.16M |
Rogers Sugar Technical Analysis
Negative
6.90
Price Trends
6.91
Negative
6.77
Positive
6.47
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.01
Positive
44.21
Neutral
45.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:RSI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.85, below the 50-day MA of 6.91, and above the 200-day MA of 6.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:RSI.
Rogers Sugar Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$1.62B | 10.48 | 13.30% | 2.04% | 1.59% | 33.65% | |
71 Outperform | C$2.46B | 17.40 | 17.50% | 3.17% | 0.88% | 2.80% | |
63 Neutral | C$874.10M | 13.49 | 14.14% | 5.29% | -5.74% | -3.64% | |
63 Neutral | C$397.67M | 11.51 | 6.27% | 4.93% | 14.25% | -44.39% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | C$3.28B | 6.28 | 36.83% | 5.40% | -21.88% | 189.83% | |
55 Neutral | C$4.00B | 46.55 | 4.19% | 4.44% | 20.43% | -21.27% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TSE:RSI
Rogers Sugar
6.80
0.77
12.71%
TSE:HLF
High Liner Foods
14.20
-0.87
-5.77%
TSE:MFI
Maple Leaf Foods
26.30
-3.65
-12.20%
TSE:NWC
North West
51.67
5.52
11.97%
TSE:PBH
Premium Brands
76.63
-13.38
-14.87%
TSE:LAS.A
Lassonde
237.26
16.92
7.68%
Rogers Sugar Corporate Events
Dividends
Rogers Sugar Declares Quarterly Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Rogers Sugar Inc. has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share, with shareholders of record on October 2, 2026 set to receive payment on October 21, 2026. The dividend, designated as eligible for income tax purposes, underscores the compan...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.