Rogers Sugar (RSI) AI Stock Analysis

Rogers Sugar

(TSX:RSI)

Select Model

Rating:63Neutral

Price Target:CAD 7.50▲(13.64% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/10/26

The score is driven primarily by stable profitability and an improving leverage profile, tempered by weak recent free cash flow and slight top-line contraction. Valuation is supportive (reasonable P/E and ~5.25% yield), while technicals are mixed with muted momentum. Earnings call takeaways are moderately constructive (raised volume outlook and LEAP on track) but balanced by near-term revenue/segment softness and financing/trade headwinds.

Positive Factors

LEAP capacity expansionThe LEAP project adds incremental refining capacity and was reported on schedule and on budget, which should increase throughput and lower per-unit costs over time. Successful commissioning in H1 2027 materially strengthens long-term supply capability and margin potential.

Negative Factors

Weak free cash flowNegative trailing free cash flow constrains internal funding for capex, working capital and dividends, increasing reliance on external financing. With LEAP capex and elevated drawn balances, persistent weak FCF would pressure flexibility and raise funding costs over the medium term.

Rogers Sugar (RSI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Market Cap: CAD 848.39M
Dividend Yield: 5.45%
Average Volume (3M): 207.51K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.1
Beta (1Y): 0.21
Revenue Growth: -5.74%
EPS Growth: -3.64%
Country: Canada
Employees: 944
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength: 62
Industry: Food Confectioners

Rogers Sugar Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rogers Sugar Inc. focuses on the refinement, packaging, and commercialization of various sugar and maple-derived goods. The company's business activities are structured around two main divisions: Sugar and Maple Products. Its extensive product range...

How the Company Makes Money

Rogers Sugar makes money primarily by selling refined sugar and sugar-containing products, and secondarily by producing and selling maple syrup and maple-derived products. Its revenue model is largely volume-driven (tonnes of sugar or litres of maple...

Rogers Sugar Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-2.73%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 25, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presents a cautiously positive picture: meaningful strategic and operational progress (LEAP commissioning on track, multi-year labor agreements, YTD EBITDA improvement, steady free cash flow and maintained dividend) offset by short-term revenue and quarterly earnings softness, Maple segment weakness, and persistent trade and market uncertainties. Management emphasizes cost discipline and execution while retaining financial flexibility to complete LEAP.

Positive Updates

LEAP Project on Schedule and On Budget

LEAP Project entering final phase with most major equipment installed; raw sugar melting process successfully tested. Project spending to date $207M and total expected cost maintained at $280M–$300M, with incremental refining capacity expected to start coming online in H1 calendar 2027.

Negative Updates

Quarterly Revenue Decline

Revenues were $294M in Q3 vs $320M in the same quarter last year, a decrease of 8%, primarily driven by lower average Raw #11 prices and reduced volumes.

Company Guidance

Guidance from the call was that Rogers expects solid fiscal 2026 results: it modestly raised full‑year sugar volume guidance to 745,000 metric tonnes (Q3 sugar sales ~188,000 mt, down ~3,000 mt YoY) and expects LEAP’s incremental refining capacity to begin ramping in H1 calendar 2027 with total LEAP cost still forecast at $280–$300 million (spent to date $207 million); Q3 adjusted net earnings were $16 million ($0.13/share) and consolidated adjusted EBITDA $36 million (Q3), with YTD adjusted EBITDA $121 million (vs $111M prior year) and YTD adjusted net earnings $60 million ($0.47/share, +$7M); Q3 revenue was $294 million (-8% YoY), trailing‑12‑month free cash flow $90 million, drawn revolver $116 million, convertible debentures outstanding $173 million, revolver extended to July 2031, and a quarterly dividend of $0.09/share declared; management expects stable margins into Q4/2027, Montreal refinery at full capacity, modestly higher production/maintenance costs, Maple results below 2025, and multi‑year labor agreements through May 2031 (Montreal) and March 2032 (Taber).

Rogers Sugar Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is solid versus prior weak periods (TTM net margin ~5.5%, EBIT margin ~10.1%) and leverage has improved (debt-to-equity ~0.89, ROE ~14%). The main drag is cash flow: TTM free cash flow is negative (~-$25M) versus positive in the prior year, and TTM revenue shows a modest decline (~-1.6%), limiting overall strength.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

63Positive

Cash Flow

45Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.22B	1.31B	1.23B	1.10B	1.01B	893.93M
Gross Profit	199.73M	192.24M	175.87M	165.73M	130.81M	139.74M
EBITDA	152.46M	137.76M	122.88M	119.50M	41.02M	108.07M
Net Income	66.93M	64.45M	53.73M	51.79M	-16.57M	47.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.25B	1.16B	1.08B	960.90M	937.96M	879.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.07M	8.54M	19.12M	46.00K	151.00K	15.64M
Total Debt	431.89M	387.74M	380.88M	438.37M	397.79M	361.82M
Total Liabilities	768.53M	704.39M	656.33M	654.00M	646.54M	560.97M
Stockholders Equity	482.99M	458.45M	422.41M	306.90M	291.42M	318.96M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-25.05M	32.75M	13.71M	8.92M	-2.18M	53.90M
Operating Cash Flow	83.23M	121.44M	79.79M	44.32M	21.55M	78.58M
Investing Cash Flow	-108.28M	-88.69M	-66.08M	-35.40M	-23.73M	-24.68M
Financing Cash Flow	2.45M	-43.36M	5.36M	-8.89M	-13.55M	-40.16M

Rogers Sugar Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral

Last Price6.60

Price Trends

50DMA6.66Negative

100DMA6.73Negative

200DMA6.53Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.01Positive

RSI47.94Neutral

STOCH29.76Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:RSI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.60 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.59, below the 50-day MA of 6.66, and above the 200-day MA of 6.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:RSI.

Rogers Sugar Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

TSE:RSI against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSE:LAS.A	73Outperform	CAD 1.72B	11.13	13.30%	1.92%	1.59%	33.65%
TSE:NWC	68Neutral	CAD 2.71B	19.21	17.50%	2.89%	0.88%	2.80%
TSE:RSI	63Neutral	CAD 848.39M	13.10	14.14%	5.45%	-5.74%	-3.64%
Sector *	62Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
TSE:MFI	62Neutral	CAD 3.37B	6.46	36.83%	5.24%	-21.88%	189.83%
TSE:HLF	59Neutral	CAD 749.97M	21.78	6.30%	2.61%	14.25%	-44.39%
TSE:PBH	40Underperform	CAD 3.80B	44.29	4.19%	4.66%	20.43%	-21.27%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:RSI and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
TSE:RSI	Rogers Sugar	6.60	0.74	12.70%
TSE:HLF	High Liner Foods	26.78	10.69	66.43%
TSE:MFI	Maple Leaf Foods	27.08	1.88	7.45%
TSE:NWC	North West	57.05	12.92	29.28%
TSE:PBH	Premium Brands Holdings	72.92	-20.69	-22.10%
TSE:LAS.A	Lassonde Industries Inc.	252.15	40.26	19.00%

Rogers Sugar Corporate Events

Dividends

Rogers Sugar Declares Quarterly Dividend to Shareholders

Positive

Aug 6, 2026

Rogers Sugar Inc. has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share, with shareholders of record on October 2, 2026 set to receive payment on October 21, 2026. The dividend, designated as eligible for income tax purposes, underscores the company&#...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 10, 2026

Rogers Sugar AI Stock Analysis