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Maple Leaf Foods
(TSX:MFI)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
C$28.00
▲(4.56% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/17/26
The score is anchored by a mixed fundamental picture: strong profitability/margin recovery but materially weaker cash flow and contracting TTM revenue. Valuation is a key positive (low P/E and high dividend yield), while technicals are notably weak with bearish trend and negative momentum indicators. The latest earnings call supports the outlook via reaffirmed guidance and improving operating metrics, but near-term cost and volume risks remain.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
The recent growth streak indicates improving commercial execution across channels and supports management’s mid-single-digit 2026 revenue outlook. Sustained growth can improve operating leverage and provide a stronger base for reinvestment.
Negative Factors
Weak TTM Revenue Trend
The trailing revenue contraction shows that the recent recovery has not yet fully offset earlier weakness. A subdued top line may limit operating leverage and raises questions about the durability of volume and price-mix improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
The recent growth streak indicates improving commercial execution across channels and supports management’s mid-single-digit 2026 revenue outlook. Sustained growth can improve operating leverage and provide a stronger base for reinvestment.
Read all positive factors
Maple Leaf Foods (MFI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$3.31B
Dividend Yield5.46%
Average Volume (3M)238.03K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.3
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth-21.88%
EPS Growth189.83%
CountryCA
Employees9,600
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.19
Shares Outstanding124,735,270
10 Day Avg. Volume295,054
30 Day Avg. Volume238,032
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.79
P/FCF Ratio9.98
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$35.80Price Target Upside33.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$4.09B
Maple Leaf Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Maple Leaf Foods Inc. operates as a food production company, extending its reach across the United States, Canada, Japan, China, and various other international markets. The firm manufactures a diverse range of culinary items, including prepared m...
How the Company Makes Money
Maple Leaf Foods makes money primarily by selling protein and prepared food products to (1) retail customers (grocery and mass retail) and (2) foodservice customers (restaurants, institutions, and other commercial buyers). Revenue is generated on ...
Maple Leaf Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed predominantly positive operational and financial momentum: continued revenue growth, quarter-over-quarter margin expansion, solid adjusted EBITDA improvement, strong poultry performance, and tangible traction in the protein snacking innovation platform. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and reiterated disciplined capital allocation while increasing shareholder returns. Offsetting these positives were transitory and manageable challenges: a short-term volume response in Prepared Foods to pricing, a Q2 free cash flow timing drag, elevated input and promotional costs, and some U.S. and plant-protein category weakness. Management signaled confidence that pricing, productivity (Fuel for Growth), and innovation will normalize volumes and support margins in H2, though Q3 seasonality and input-cost variability pose downside risk.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth Continues
Q2 sales of $1.02 billion, up 1.6% year-over-year and marking the seventh consecutive quarter of revenue growth; year-to-date revenue up ~4% to nearly $2.0 billion.
Negative Updates
Prepared Foods Volume Softness
Prepared Foods sales declined 2.0% in Q2, largely due to a temporary volume response to pricing actions and the roll-off of certain lower-margin private label volumes, though profitability improved.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth Continues
Q2 sales of $1.02 billion, up 1.6% year-over-year and marking the seventh consecutive quarter of revenue growth; year-to-date revenue up ~4% to nearly $2.0 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Maple Leaf reaffirmed its 2026 outlook, expecting mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA of $520–$540 million, while investing roughly $160–$180 million in capital (weighted to H2) and maintaining an investment‑grade balance sheet. Through H1, revenue is up ~4% to nearly $2.0 billion and adjusted EBITDA is ~ $260 million (up >5%); Q2 sales were $1.02 billion (+1.6%), Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $137.1 million (+4.8%) with margin expansion of 40 basis points to 13.4%, Q2 adjusted earnings were $53.9 million ($0.44 basic EPS) and earnings from continuing operations were $40.8 million ($0.33 basic EPS). Key balance‑sheet and cash metrics include net debt / trailing‑12‑month adjusted EBITDA of 2.2x, YTD shareholder returns of $78 million (dividend up 10.5% and ~0.8 million shares repurchased), Q2 capex of $23.3 million (YTD $44.6 million) and a Q2 free cash flow outflow of $18.9 million (timing‑related).Maple Leaf Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
49
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.98B | 3.91B | 4.90B | 4.87B | 4.74B | 4.52B |
| Gross Profit | 693.76M | 666.17M | 780.01M | 451.37M | 424.14M | 659.08M |
| EBITDA | 434.89M | 433.70M | 561.19M | 273.48M | -13.66M | 373.43M |
| Net Income | 521.15M | 541.63M | 96.60M | -124.98M | -311.89M | 102.82M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.63B | 3.54B | 4.43B | 4.60B | 4.44B | 4.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 167.85M | 143.41M | 175.91M | 203.36M | 91.08M | 162.03M |
| Total Debt | 1.33B | 1.23B | 1.88B | 2.13B | 1.89B | 1.43B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.27B | 2.22B | 2.89B | 3.09B | 2.78B | 2.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.36B | 1.32B | 1.54B | 1.51B | 1.66B | 2.04B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 126.56M | 310.25M | 464.92M | -21.30M | -306.42M | -275.56M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 246.65M | 435.54M | 464.92M | 176.88M | 49.32M | 304.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -127.67M | -119.74M | -82.54M | -188.57M | -377.01M | -623.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -187.17M | -348.30M | -409.84M | 123.97M | 256.74M | 379.90M |
Maple Leaf Foods Technical Analysis
Negative
26.78
Price Trends
28.43
Negative
29.00
Negative
27.72
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.51
Negative
37.31
Neutral
38.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MFI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.94, below the 50-day MA of 28.43, and below the 200-day MA of 27.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:MFI.
Maple Leaf Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$15.93B | 32.17 | 7.45% | 1.99% | -4.63% | ― | |
63 Neutral | C$406.91M | 11.80 | 6.27% | 4.82% | 14.25% | -44.39% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | C$3.31B | 6.34 | 36.83% | 5.46% | -21.88% | 189.83% | |
55 Neutral | C$4.11B | 47.83 | 4.19% | 4.32% | 20.43% | -21.27% | |
47 Neutral | C$252.10M | -13.03 | -311.77% | ― | 82.33% | -570.45% | |
25 Underperform | C$47.90M | -24.03 | 81.87% | ― | ― | ― |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TSE:MFI
Maple Leaf Foods
26.55
-3.15
-10.60%
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Maple Leaf Foods Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Maple Leaf Foods Posts Higher Q2 Earnings and Reaffirms 2026 Guidance
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
Maple Leaf Foods reported second quarter 2026 sales of $1.02 billion, up 1.6% year over year, with Adjusted EBITDA rising 4.8% to $137 million and margin expanding to 13.4%. Earnings from continuing operations increased to $41 million, while the c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.