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Nutrien
(TSX:NTR)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
C$118.00
▲(17.20% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/10/26
The score is driven mainly by improving financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook (strong potash/nitrogen execution, maintained guidance, and shareholder returns), supported by reasonable valuation (P/E ~13 and ~3.4% dividend). These positives are tempered by weaker technical positioning (price below key moving averages with subdued momentum) and a notable cash-flow quality concern (free cash flow weakening and lower cash conversion).
Positive Factors
Improving Financial Performance
The rebound in revenue and profitability indicates that Nutrien is recovering from the weaker 2023–2024 period across its fertilizer and retail businesses. Although cyclical, stronger operating earnings improve internal funding capacity and support investment through the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Conversion
Positive cash generation is being diluted by a sharp deterioration in free-cash-flow growth and conversion relative to reported earnings. If this persists, Nutrien may have less flexibility for capital spending, shareholder returns, debt reduction, or resilience during a weaker fertilizer cycle.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving Financial Performance
The rebound in revenue and profitability indicates that Nutrien is recovering from the weaker 2023–2024 period across its fertilizer and retail businesses. Although cyclical, stronger operating earnings improve internal funding capacity and support investment through the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Nutrien (NTR) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$53.26B
Dividend Yield2.8%
Average Volume (3M)1.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.9
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth7.77%
EPS Growth76.65%
CountryCA
Employees25,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.87
Shares Outstanding477,210,080
10 Day Avg. Volume1,356,638
30 Day Avg. Volume1,213,217
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.19
Price to Sales (P/S)1.12
P/FCF Ratio14.73
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$105.27Price Target Upside4.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)6.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$38.75B
Nutrien Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nutrien Ltd. is a prominent agricultural company dedicated to supplying crucial crop inputs and comprehensive services to the farming sector. It specializes in the production and provision of essential plant nutrients like potash, nitrogen, phosph...
How the Company Makes Money
Nutrien primarily makes money through two broad sources: (1) selling fertilizer products it manufactures and (2) selling and servicing a wide range of crop inputs through its retail network.
1) Fertilizer production and sales (wholesale)
- Potash...
Nutrien Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a generally positive tone: the company achieved record potash volumes, modest EBITDA growth (+6% H1), stronger cash flow (+12% H1), successful operational execution (automation, major turnaround), and increased shareholder returns (capex reduction and stepped-up buybacks). Offsetting items include notable weakness in phosphate margins from soaring sulfur costs, lower retail fertilizer volumes (phosphate down ~10%, nitrogen down ~7% in downstream), higher retail SG&A (fuel/fleet), seed profit weakness, and continuing geopolitical and weather-related market uncertainties. On balance, the strengths in operations, cash generation and capital allocation outweigh the challenges described.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion and first half adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion (up 6% year-over-year); cash provided by operating activities increased 12% in the first half.
Negative Updates
Phosphate Margin Pressure from Sulfur Costs
Phosphate adjusted EBITDA declined in Q2 due to elevated sulfur input costs which placed unsustainable pressure on global phosphate producer margins; company is monitoring sulfur costs and customer demand for H2.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Performance
Second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion and first half adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion (up 6% year-over-year); cash provided by operating activities increased 12% in the first half.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nutrien maintained a fairly constructive 2026 guidance framework with many specifics: global potash shipments are forecast at 74–77 million tonnes and Nutrien raised its own potash sales guidance to 14.2–14.8 Mt (Q2 potash adj. EBITDA $658M; controllable cash cost targeted below $60/tonne; Canpotex fully committed for Q3; 53% of ore tonnes mined with automation in H1; current capacity ~15 Mt with options to 18 Mt at ~$200–$300/t incremental capital and larger step‑ups at ~$700–$800/t). Nitrogen sales volume guidance was maintained at 9.2–9.7 Mt (Q2 nitrogen adj. EBITDA $635M; ~35% of segment volumes sold before the Middle East conflict; Carseland turnaround completed; turnarounds planned at Lima and Redwater in Q3). Phosphate volumes guidance was unchanged but margins are pressured by elevated sulfur costs. Downstream retail adj. EBITDA guidance was reaffirmed at $1.75–$1.95B (H1 retail adj. EBITDA $1.24B, +4%), with proprietary products gross margin up ~10% in H1 and expected to grow high single digits for the full year. Company results underpinning guidance included Q2 adj. EBITDA $2.4B, H1 adj. EBITDA $3.5B (+6% y/y), cash from operations +12% H1; CapEx guidance trimmed by $50M to $1.95–$2.05B; divestiture proceeds ~ $90M since June and ~ $1B since Q4 2024; and share repurchases up 26% in H1 and ramped to ~ $75M/month in Q3.Nutrien Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 27.84B | 26.89B | 25.97B | 29.06B | 37.88B | 27.71B |
| Gross Profit | 8.65B | 8.35B | 7.53B | 8.47B | 15.42B | 9.41B |
| EBITDA | 6.27B | 6.11B | 4.21B | 4.88B | 12.78B | 6.58B |
| Net Income | 2.35B | 2.31B | 674.00M | 1.26B | 7.66B | 3.15B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 53.47B | 52.21B | 51.84B | 52.75B | 54.59B | 49.95B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 919.50M | 699.72M | 853.00M | 941.00M | 901.00M | 499.00M |
| Total Debt | 12.71B | 12.02B | 12.81B | 12.57B | 11.93B | 10.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.57B | 26.89B | 27.40B | 27.55B | 28.72B | 26.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.86B | 25.28B | 24.41B | 25.16B | 25.82B | 23.65B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.07B | 2.04B | 1.38B | 2.47B | 5.67B | 2.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.16B | 4.08B | 3.54B | 5.07B | 8.11B | 3.89B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.60B | -1.40B | -2.13B | -2.96B | -2.90B | -1.81B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.01B | -2.87B | -1.45B | -2.06B | -4.73B | -3.00B |
Nutrien Technical Analysis
Positive
100.68
Price Trends
97.94
Positive
96.18
Positive
94.63
Positive
Market Momentum
4.09
Negative
65.31
Neutral
78.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 100.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 103.38, above the 50-day MA of 97.94, and above the 200-day MA of 94.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NTR.
Nutrien Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$53.26B | 15.94 | 9.38% | 2.80% | 7.77% | 76.65% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | C$485.00M | 6.36 | 11.79% | 6.53% | 10.52% | -53.33% | |
49 Neutral | C$30.29M | -4.43 | -218.75% | ― | -54.59% | 10.76% | |
48 Neutral | C$46.28M | -3.45 | -59.51% | ― | -20.60% | -8.43% | |
46 Neutral | C$15.99M | -18.24 | -23.43% | ― | ― | -7.43% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:NTR
Nutrien
109.09
32.71
42.82%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.