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Nutrien (NTR) AI Stock Analysis
Nutrien
(TSX:NTR)
The score is driven mainly by improving financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook (strong potash/nitrogen execution, maintained guidance, and shareholder returns), supported by reasonable valuation (P/E ~13 and ~3.4% dividend). These positives are tempered by weaker technical positioning (price below key moving averages with subdued momentum) and a notable cash-flow quality concern (free cash flow weakening and lower cash conversion).
Nutrien (NTR) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- CAD 33.13B
- Dividend Yield
- 3.17%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 1.85M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 14.1
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.49
- Revenue Growth
- 7.77%
- EPS Growth
- 76.65%
- Country
- Canada
- Employees
- 25,500
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Agricultural Inputs
Nutrien Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nutrien Ltd. is a prominent agricultural company dedicated to supplying crucial crop inputs and comprehensive services to the farming sector. It specializes in the production and provision of essential plant nutrients like potash, nitrogen, phosphate...
How the Company Makes Money
Nutrien primarily makes money through two broad sources: (1) selling fertilizer products it manufactures and (2) selling and servicing a wide range of crop inputs through its retail network. 1) Fertilizer production and sales (wholesale) - Potash: Nu...
Nutrien Earnings Call Summary
The call presents a generally positive tone: the company achieved record potash volumes, modest EBITDA growth (+6% H1), stronger cash flow (+12% H1), successful operational execution (automation, major turnaround), and increased shareholder returns (capex reduction and stepped-up buybacks). Offsetting items include notable weakness in phosphate margins from soaring sulfur costs, lower retail fertilizer volumes (phosphate down ~10%, nitrogen down ~7% in downstream), higher retail SG&A (fuel/fleet), seed profit weakness, and continuing geopolitical and weather-related market uncertainties. On balance, the strengths in operations, cash generation and capital allocation outweigh the challenges described.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Nutrien maintained a fairly constructive 2026 guidance framework with many specifics: global potash shipments are forecast at 74–77 million tonnes and Nutrien raised its own potash sales guidance to 14.2–14.8 Mt (Q2 potash adj. EBITDA $658M; controllable cash cost targeted below $60/tonne; Canpotex fully committed for Q3; 53% of ore tonnes mined with automation in H1; current capacity ~15 Mt with options to 18 Mt at ~$200–$300/t incremental capital and larger step‑ups at ~$700–$800/t). Nitrogen sales volume guidance was maintained at 9.2–9.7 Mt (Q2 nitrogen adj. EBITDA $635M; ~35% of segment volumes sold before the Middle East conflict; Carseland turnaround completed; turnarounds planned at Lima and Redwater in Q3). Phosphate volumes guidance was unchanged but margins are pressured by elevated sulfur costs. Downstream retail adj. EBITDA guidance was reaffirmed at $1.75–$1.95B (H1 retail adj. EBITDA $1.24B, +4%), with proprietary products gross margin up ~10% in H1 and expected to grow high single digits for the full year. Company results underpinning guidance included Q2 adj. EBITDA $2.4B, H1 adj. EBITDA $3.5B (+6% y/y), cash from operations +12% H1; CapEx guidance trimmed by $50M to $1.95–$2.05B; divestiture proceeds ~ $90M since June and ~ $1B since Q4 2024; and share repurchases up 26% in H1 and ramped to ~ $75M/month in Q3.
Nutrien Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals show a cyclical recovery with TTM revenue up ~34% and improved profitability (gross margin ~31%, operating margin ~13.9%, net margin ~8.4%) and manageable leverage (~0.49x debt-to-equity). The key drag is cash-flow quality: free cash flow is positive (~$2.07B) but sharply lower versus the prior year and cash conversion is weak (FCF ~0.50x net income), indicating earnings are not translating into cash as strongly.
Income Statement
72PositiveBalance Sheet
74PositiveCash Flow
58Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 27.84B | 26.89B | 25.97B | 29.06B | 37.88B | 27.71B |
| Gross Profit | 8.65B | 8.35B | 7.53B | 8.47B | 15.42B | 9.41B |
| EBITDA | 6.27B | 6.02B | 4.21B | 4.88B | 12.78B | 6.58B |
| Net Income | 2.35B | 2.31B | 674.00M | 1.26B | 7.66B | 3.15B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 53.47B | 52.21B | 51.84B | 52.75B | 54.59B | 49.95B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 919.50M | 699.72M | 853.00M | 941.00M | 901.00M | 499.00M |
| Total Debt | 12.71B | 12.02B | 12.81B | 12.57B | 11.93B | 10.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.57B | 26.89B | 27.40B | 27.55B | 28.72B | 26.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.86B | 25.28B | 24.41B | 25.16B | 25.82B | 23.65B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.07B | 2.04B | 1.38B | 2.47B | 5.67B | 2.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.16B | 4.08B | 3.54B | 5.07B | 8.11B | 3.89B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.60B | -1.40B | -2.13B | -2.96B | -2.90B | -1.81B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.01B | -2.87B | -1.45B | -2.06B | -4.73B | -3.00B |
Nutrien Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NTR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 96.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.16, below the 50-day MA of 102.20, and below the 200-day MA of 97.28, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:NTR.
Nutrien Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
- TSE:NTR67Neutral
TSE:IFOS60Neutral
TSE:NPK48Neutral
TSE:MGRO39Underperform
TSE:KRN37Underperform
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:NTR | 67Neutral | CAD 46.17B | 14.05 | 9.38% | 3.17% | 7.77% | 76.65% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
| TSE:IFOS | 60Neutral | CAD 403.20M | 5.47 | 11.79% | ― | 10.52% | -53.33% |
| TSE:NPK | 48Neutral | CAD 38.38M | -2.90 | -59.51% | ― | -20.60% | -8.43% |
| TSE:MGRO | 39Underperform | CAD 25.36M | -3.71 | -218.75% | ― | -54.59% | 10.76% |
| TSE:KRN | 37Underperform | CAD 13.59M | -16.04 | -23.43% | ― | ― | -7.43% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:NTR | Nutrien | 96.96 | 22.75 | 30.65% | |
| TSE:KRN | Karnalyte Resources | 0.26 | 0.15 | 131.82% | |
| TSE:NPK | Verde Agritech | 0.68 | -0.45 | -39.82% | |
| TSE:IFOS | Itafos Inc | 2.07 | -1.39 | -40.17% | |
| TSE:MGRO | Mustgrow Biologics Corp. | 0.36 | -0.35 | -49.30% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 10, 2026