Nutrien (TSE:NTR)
NYSE:NTR
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Nutrien
(NYSE:NTR)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$101.00
▲(4.39% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/01/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (margin and earnings rebound with moderate leverage) and a reasonable valuation supported by a ~3.2% dividend. This is tempered by weak near-term technical momentum and earnings-call risks tied to geopolitical disruption, input-cost inflation and portfolio/asset uncertainty (notably phosphate and Trinidad/Brazil).
Positive Factors
Integrated upstream-retail model
Nutrien’s integrated model links upstream fertilizer production with a large retail network and agronomy services, creating recurring demand capture, margin retention and cross-selling. This structural vertical integration supports steadier volumes, reduces reliance on third-party supply and strengthens customer stickiness over cycles.
Negative Factors
Phosphate margin pressure
Persistent input-cost inflation (notably sulfur and ammonia) has materially compressed phosphate margins and management expects further Q2 pressure. Structural sensitivity to feedstock prices makes phosphate earnings unpredictable, prompting strategic reviews that could signal long-term profitability challenges or asset divestitures.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated upstream-retail model
Nutrien’s integrated model links upstream fertilizer production with a large retail network and agronomy services, creating recurring demand capture, margin retention and cross-selling. This structural vertical integration supports steadier volumes, reduces reliance on third-party supply and strengthens customer stickiness over cycles.
Read all positive factors
Nutrien (NTR) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$45.24B
Dividend Yield3.52%
Average Volume (3M)1.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.6
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth8.02%
EPS Growth363.69%
CountryCA
Employees25,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.92
Shares Outstanding481,141,330
10 Day Avg. Volume1,382,567
30 Day Avg. Volume1,321,263
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.19
Price to Sales (P/S)1.10
P/FCF Ratio14.73
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$116.88Price Target Upside20.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)7.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$38.80B
Nutrien Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nutrien Ltd. is a prominent agricultural company dedicated to supplying crucial crop inputs and comprehensive services to the farming sector. It specializes in the production and provision of essential plant nutrients like potash, nitrogen, phosph...
How the Company Makes Money
Nutrien makes money primarily by selling fertilizer products and by earning margin on agricultural retail distribution and services. (1) Fertilizer production and sales: Through its Potash and Nitrogen segments, Nutrien generates revenue from the ...
Nutrien Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution and several clear financial successes in Q1 — notably $1.1 billion adjusted EBITDA, record potash shipments, solid nitrogen performance (92% ammonia operating rate), maintained guidance ranges, ongoing buybacks, and cost-discipline actions. However, material macro and operational risks remain: the Middle East conflict has already disrupted >30% of urea trade and ~25% of ammonia/phosphate trade, driving higher input costs (sulfur, ammonia, gas), pressuring phosphate margins (Q1 phosphate EBITDA only $57M despite +20% production), and leaving specific assets (Trinidad, parts of Brazil) under strategic review or shut down. On balance, management preserved guidance, demonstrated flexibility in operations and capital allocation, and delivered meaningful quarter-over-quarter improvements, but acknowledged notable commodity, geopolitical and portfolio risks that could weigh on results if prolonged.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.1 billion in Q1 2026, driven by strong customer demand and higher global benchmark prices across upstream and downstream businesses.
Negative Updates
Geopolitical Supply Disruption from Middle East Conflict
Ongoing conflict has disrupted fertilizer and energy markets: >30% of global urea trade and ~25% of ammonia and phosphate trade rely on routes through the Strait of Hormuz and have been affected. Management warned of uneven and prolonged normalization of nitrogen and phosphate supply, with elevated benchmark and input costs and uncertain timing to restore idled or damaged capacity.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.1 billion in Q1 2026, driven by strong customer demand and higher global benchmark prices across upstream and downstream businesses.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nutrien said it is maintaining 2026 guidance: global potash shipments 74–77 million tonnes and Nutrien potash sales 14.1–14.7 million tonnes (Q1 potash sales >3.5M t; Q1 potash adj. EBITDA $578M), nitrogen sales 9.2–9.7 million tonnes (Q1 ammonia operating rate 92%; Q1 nitrogen adj. EBITDA $482M; guidance assumes no Trinidad/New Madrid production and three planned turnarounds), and unchanged phosphate sales guidance (Q1 phosphate adj. EBITDA $57M; production +20% y/y but Q2 margin pressure expected from higher sulfur/ammonia costs). Retail full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance is $1.75–$1.95B (Q1 retail adj. EBITDA $108M; ~70% of retail earnings expected in H1), company Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $1.1B, 2026 capex is guided at $2.0–$2.1B, share repurchases continue at roughly $55M/month in Q2 (≈$550M repurchased last year; adjusted net debt reduced ≈$600M), and management expects free cash flow to be supported by tight supply/demand, business improvements and portfolio optimization.Nutrien Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 27.75B | 27.36B | 25.97B | 29.06B | 37.88B | 27.71B |
| Gross Profit | 8.65B | 8.49B | 7.53B | 8.47B | 15.42B | 9.41B |
| EBITDA | 6.19B | 6.37B | 4.21B | 4.88B | 12.78B | 6.58B |
| Net Income | 2.39B | 2.31B | 674.00M | 1.26B | 7.66B | 3.15B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 53.96B | 52.21B | 51.84B | 52.75B | 54.59B | 49.95B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 777.55M | 699.72M | 853.00M | 941.00M | 901.00M | 499.00M |
| Total Debt | 13.96B | 12.93B | 12.81B | 12.57B | 11.93B | 10.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.75B | 26.89B | 27.40B | 27.55B | 28.72B | 26.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.17B | 25.28B | 24.41B | 25.16B | 25.82B | 23.65B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.23B | 2.04B | 1.38B | 2.47B | 5.67B | 2.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.29B | 4.08B | 3.54B | 5.07B | 8.11B | 3.89B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.61B | -1.40B | -2.13B | -2.96B | -2.90B | -1.81B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.82B | -2.87B | -1.45B | -2.06B | -4.73B | -3.00B |
Nutrien Technical Analysis
Negative
96.75
Price Trends
99.47
Negative
99.05
Negative
89.50
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.29
Positive
40.24
Neutral
36.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NTR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 96.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 96.34, below the 50-day MA of 99.47, and above the 200-day MA of 89.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:NTR.
Nutrien Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | C$481.11M | 4.49 | 24.00% | ― | 12.16% | -19.44% | |
65 Neutral | C$45.24B | 13.56 | 9.48% | 3.52% | 8.02% | 363.69% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
47 Neutral | C$15.99M | -16.11 | -21.85% | ― | ― | 44.97% | |
42 Neutral | C$39.51M | -3.40 | -49.69% | ― | -20.39% | 1.91% | |
42 Neutral | C$28.84M | -4.37 | -459.98% | ― | 10.13% | -14.94% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:NTR
Nutrien
94.02
14.05
17.57%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.