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Northland Power
(TSX:NPI)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
C$22.50
▲(5.34% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven mainly by solid cash generation and constructive earnings-call takeaways (reaffirmed guidance, strong project execution/financing, and ample liquidity). These positives are tempered by recent net losses and a leveraged balance sheet, while technical indicators remain broadly neutral with slightly negative near-term momentum.
Positive Factors
Contracted growth pipeline
Northland is expanding its contracted generation base through a sizeable construction pipeline. Baltic Power and Hai Long are nearing completion, while BESS projects add storage exposure, supporting future EBITDA and cash-flow growth.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Northland’s asset-heavy model requires substantial financing, but leverage increases sensitivity to refinancing costs, project delays and earnings volatility. Even with investment-grade status, elevated debt limits flexibility during adverse operating or funding conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Contracted growth pipeline
Northland is expanding its contracted generation base through a sizeable construction pipeline. Baltic Power and Hai Long are nearing completion, while BESS projects add storage exposure, supporting future EBITDA and cash-flow growth.
Read all positive factors
Northland Power (NPI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$5.47B
Dividend Yield4.02%
Average Volume (3M)947.91K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth15.39%
EPS Growth-180.64%
CountryCA
Employees1,139
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRenewable Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.55
Shares Outstanding261,502,040
10 Day Avg. Volume755,135
30 Day Avg. Volume947,913
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.92
P/FCF Ratio4.78
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$25.67Price Target Upside20.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.58B
Northland Power Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northland Power Inc. is an independent energy producer that focuses on the creation, construction, ownership, and management of clean and sustainable electricity generation assets. Its operations extend across North America, Europe, Latin America,...
How the Company Makes Money
Northland Power primarily makes money by generating and selling electricity from its owned and operated power plants. Revenue is largely earned under long-term contracts (such as power purchase agreements or similar offtake arrangements) where ele...
Northland Power Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong execution on major construction milestones (Baltic Power first power, Hai Long turbine installation and financing, Jurassic BESS nearing commissioning), solid operational availability (96%), and reaffirmed full-year guidance. Adjusted EBITDA grew 6% year-over-year in the quarter and the company maintains nearly CAD 1 billion in liquidity and an investment-grade balance sheet. Near-term challenges include a material decline in quarterly free cash flow (≈60% YoY) driven by a prior-year one-time tax refund, weaker-than-average offshore wind in Q2 (~11% below long-term average), a net loss of CAD 54 million, and a Gemini export cable failure (being repaired). On balance, the strategic milestones, project financings, and reaffirmed guidance outweigh the near-term cash flow and production headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Operational Availability
Portfolio availability was 96% in Q2 2026, positioning the company to capture generation when resources are available; year-to-date generation is in line with historical averages after strong Q1 wind conditions.
Negative Updates
Significant Q2 Free Cash Flow Decline
Second quarter free cash flow was CAD 23 million, approximately 60% lower than Q2 2025; free cash flow per share was CAD 0.09 versus CAD 0.22 in Q2 2025 (≈59% decrease). Management attributes most of the YoY decline to a one-time German trade tax refund recognized in Q2 2025.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Operational Availability
Portfolio availability was 96% in Q2 2026, positioning the company to capture generation when resources are available; year-to-date generation is in line with historical averages after strong Q1 wind conditions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance, calling for adjusted EBITDA of C$1.45–1.65 billion and free cash flow per share of C$1.15–1.25; in Q2 Northland reported adjusted EBITDA of C$259 million (up 6% YoY), Q2 free cash flow of C$23 million (~60% below prior year) and FCF per share of C$0.09 (vs C$0.22), a net loss of C$54 million, and operational availability of 96% (European offshore wind ~11% below long‑term average in Q2 but YTD generation in line with averages). Management noted nearly C$1 billion of available liquidity and an investment‑grade balance sheet to execute ~2.5 GW of projects in construction—including Baltic Power (1.1 GW: first power achieved; 61/76 turbines installed, 15 generating; COD later this year), Hai Long (1 GW: 71/73 turbines installed, 59 generating; full operation expected 2027; C$2.4 billion financing secured with ~C$900 million incremental capacity and ~C$1.5 billion refinanced), Poland BESS Dzwola & Gniew (300 MW, 4‑hour / 1.2 GWh, COD 2028), and Jurassic BESS (80 MW / 160 MWh nearing commercial commissioning)—factors management said support the reaffirmed guidance.Northland Power Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.56B | 2.43B | 2.35B | 2.24B | 2.45B | 2.09B |
| Gross Profit | 1.25B | 968.13M | 2.35B | 1.62B | 1.83B | 1.55B |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 921.58M | 1.53B | 1.38B | 1.65B | 1.41B |
| Net Income | -140.56M | -163.25M | 271.82M | -175.19M | 827.73M | 189.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.18B | 13.24B | 13.60B | 13.63B | 14.22B | 12.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 645.90M | 678.90M | 613.32M | 740.24M | 1.46B | 673.81M |
| Total Debt | 6.83B | 7.18B | 7.44B | 7.44B | 7.17B | 8.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.64B | 8.81B | 9.05B | 9.14B | 9.50B | 9.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.15B | 4.06B | 4.19B | 4.19B | 4.39B | 2.76B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 916.72M | 976.54M | 130.97M | 18.26M | 1.04B | 858.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.08B | 1.11B | 683.18M | 459.37M | 1.50B | 1.33B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -147.67M | -94.18M | -468.77M | -1.21B | -677.09M | -975.41M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.04B | -1.01B | -372.66M | 111.42M | -271.34M | -20.26M |
Northland Power Technical Analysis
Neutral
21.36
Price Trends
21.46
Negative
22.12
Negative
20.71
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.24
Positive
46.53
Neutral
15.30
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NPI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 21.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.11, below the 50-day MA of 21.46, and above the 200-day MA of 20.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.30 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:NPI.
Northland Power Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | C$297.72M | 52.68 | 1.73% | 5.83% | -1.18% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
60 Neutral | C$5.47B | -38.04 | -3.46% | 4.02% | 15.39% | -180.64% | |
51 Neutral | C$29.76B | 68.28 | 2.64% | 4.92% | 5.92% | 52.60% | |
49 Neutral | C$6.04B | 31.17 | 3.20% | 4.57% | 5.62% | ― | |
46 Neutral | C$14.25M | -4.66 | -72.76% | ― | -66.21% | -378.27% |
* Utilities Sector Average
TSE:NPI
Northland Power
20.92
-0.66
-3.06%
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Northland Power Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Northland Power Lifts EBITDA as Offshore Wind and Storage Projects Hit Key Milestones
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
Northland Power reported strong second-quarter 2026 operational performance, with 96% commercial availability across its fleet and a 6% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, while free cash flow per share fell due to a non-recurring tax refu...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Northland Power boosts Hai Long offshore wind funding with NT$55 billion debt refinancing
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
Northland Power has optimized the financing of its 1,022 MW Hai Long offshore wind project in Taiwan by securing approximately NT$55 billion (CAD $2.4 billion) in new Taiwan dollar-denominated debt with a 20-year tenor. Around CAD $0.9 billion of ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.