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Lundin Mining
(TSX:LUN)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$43.00
▲(11.69% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, low leverage, and positive/free cash flow). Technicals are supportive with an upward bias, and valuation looks broadly fair. The latest earnings call adds confidence via reaffirmed guidance and strategic progress, but near-term execution risks and elevated capex needs cap the upside.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage and a conservatively positioned balance sheet provide durable financial flexibility to fund sustaining capex, opportunistic M&A, or weather commodity downturns without immediate refinancing pressure. This reduces insolvency risk and supports long-term project optionality.
Negative Factors
High near-term capex burden
A capital-intensive phase with >$1B forecasted capex while net cash is modest raises execution and funding risk. Reliance on credit facilities to bridge project spending increases refinancing and covenant vulnerability if project timelines or costs slip, pressuring long-term liquidity.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage and a conservatively positioned balance sheet provide durable financial flexibility to fund sustaining capex, opportunistic M&A, or weather commodity downturns without immediate refinancing pressure. This reduces insolvency risk and supports long-term project optionality.
Read all positive factors
Lundin Mining (LUN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$31.88B
Dividend Yield0.32%
Average Volume (3M)2.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.1
Beta (1Y)2.29
Revenue Growth28.67%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees6,195
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.77
Shares Outstanding855,610,400
10 Day Avg. Volume2,007,744
30 Day Avg. Volume2,152,700
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.78
Price to Sales (P/S)4.83
P/FCF Ratio29.82
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$41.47Price Target Upside7.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)1.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$4.74B
Lundin Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lundin Mining Corporation is a global diversified base metals mining company, specializing in the exploration, development, and extraction of mineral resources. Its operations are strategically located across Brazil, Chile, Portugal, Sweden, and t...
How the Company Makes Money
Lundin Mining makes money primarily by producing and selling metal concentrates and/or refined metals from its mining operations. Revenue is driven mainly by (1) copper sales, typically the largest contributor, reflecting production volumes and pr...
Lundin Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong financial and operational results driven by very favorable copper prices, disciplined cost management and meaningful strategic progress (M&A, Vicuna regulatory approvals, Chapada sanctioning). These positives are tempered by significant short-term operational challenges from an extreme weather event at Caserones, diesel-driven cost headwinds, and an isolated metallurgical issue affecting moly recoveries. Management retains guidance and shows funding flexibility, but near-term execution and capital intensity remain areas to monitor.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly and Year-to-Date Financial Performance
Revenue of ~$1.2B in Q2 2026; adjusted EBITDA of $658M for the quarter; adjusted operating cash flow of $495M in Q2; free cash flow from operations of $360M in the quarter. Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA ~$1.3B and adjusted operating cash flow ~$945M, tracking ahead of prior full-year guidance.
Negative Updates
Severe Weather Disruption at Caserones
Post-quarter winter storms in Chile caused ~3.4 m of snow at Caserones, winds >125 km/h, a 12-day power outage and damage to transmission towers. Operations were disrupted, initial concentrate restart expected by end of the week with full capacity thereafter. Company now anticipates Caserones finishing in the lower half of its 2026 guidance range after previously tracking to the upper end.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly and Year-to-Date Financial Performance
Revenue of ~$1.2B in Q2 2026; adjusted EBITDA of $658M for the quarter; adjusted operating cash flow of $495M in Q2; free cash flow from operations of $360M in the quarter. Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA ~$1.3B and adjusted operating cash flow ~$945M, tracking ahead of prior full-year guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reaffirmed full‑year consolidated production guidance of 310–335 kt of copper and 134–149 koz of gold and maintained consolidated cash‑cost guidance of $1.90–$2.10/lb (Q2 was $2.11/lb; YTD $1.88/lb), while noting Caserones’ 2026 copper range of 130–140 kt is now expected to be in the lower half of that band with Casarones cash‑cost guidance of $2.05–$2.25/lb; Candelaria’s Q2 cash cost was $2.65/lb and Chapada’s guidance remains $0.75–$0.95/lb (Q2 $0.62/lb). Capital guidance was reaffirmed with sustaining capex $550M, expansionary capex increased to $85M for 2026 (from $50M) driven by the Chapada ball mill, Vicuna expansionary spend was $74M YTD (Q2 expansionary $83M) and total 2027 capex guidance is $1.03B. Strategic/timing guidance includes a potential Vicuna Stage‑1 sanction decision as early as year‑end, a $250M provincial infrastructure trust (capping royalties at 3% mining + 1.5% gross revenue trust, $125M net to Lundin) with a five‑year holiday, and liquidity to fund Stage‑1 via $79M net cash plus a $2.5B revolver (increasing to $4.5B on sanction).Lundin Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.31B | 3.81B | 3.42B | 2.74B | 3.04B | 3.33B |
| Gross Profit | 1.68B | 1.05B | 1.51B | 1.10B | 1.32B | 1.89B |
| EBITDA | 2.34B | 1.90B | 1.15B | 828.28M | 974.80M | 1.64B |
| Net Income | 1.51B | 1.31B | -203.53M | 241.56M | 426.85M | 780.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.83B | 10.80B | 10.40B | 10.78B | 8.25B | 7.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 265.80M | 303.75M | 407.34M | 266.86M | 193.26M | 588.48M |
| Total Debt | 201.80M | 615.38M | 2.00B | 1.48B | 199.26M | 30.71M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.55B | 2.87B | 4.89B | 4.41B | 2.77B | 2.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.02B | 6.61B | 4.42B | 4.93B | 4.91B | 4.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.04B | 616.30M | 579.24M | 114.49M | 40.96M | 961.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.77B | 1.31B | 1.35B | 985.52M | 858.78M | 1.49B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -809.08M | 627.19M | -973.92M | -1.71B | -1.00B | -543.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -974.62M | -2.06B | -214.19M | 798.47M | -234.66M | -481.13M |
Lundin Mining Technical Analysis
Positive
38.50
Price Trends
35.87
Positive
36.88
Positive
35.01
Positive
Market Momentum
0.13
Positive
52.73
Neutral
39.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.74, above the 50-day MA of 35.87, and above the 200-day MA of 35.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LUN.
Lundin Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$31.88B | 14.09 | 22.97% | 0.32% | 28.67% | ― | |
78 Outperform | C$5.51B | 11.72 | 30.09% | ― | 93.28% | 113.62% | |
76 Outperform | C$12.27B | 17.08 | 13.69% | ― | 36.25% | 524.95% | |
74 Outperform | C$17.69B | 15.77 | 18.43% | 0.08% | 13.43% | 129.98% | |
63 Neutral | C$4.51B | 964.85 | 1.33% | ― | 68.28% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | C$38.62B | -290.38 | -0.73% | 0.63% | 15.02% | -140.36% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:LUN
Lundin Mining
34.50
18.16
111.07%
TSE:HBM
Hudbay Minerals
36.86
18.12
96.66%
TSE:TKO
Trekor Metals
11.11
6.28
130.02%
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
14.53
4.13
39.71%
TSE:ERO
Ero Copper
48.37
24.97
106.71%
TSE:FM
First Quantum Minerals
42.95
16.87
64.69%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.