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First Quantum Minerals
(TSX:FM)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
C$35.00
▼(-28.12% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/30/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened cash-flow quality (negative TTM free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Earnings-call commentary and financial recovery trends provide support, but valuation is a major headwind given the very high P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Operating recovery
The sharp revenue and EBITDA improvement shows stronger operating earnings and better benefit from copper exposure. If production remains resilient, this recovery can improve internal funding capacity, support debt reduction, and strengthen the company’s ability to advance long-life mining assets.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
Negative free cash flow means operating cash generation is currently insufficient after capital investment, reducing near-term financial flexibility. This can increase reliance on balance-sheet resources, limit discretionary spending, and make it harder to fund growth while maintaining debt-reduction goals.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating recovery
The sharp revenue and EBITDA improvement shows stronger operating earnings and better benefit from copper exposure. If production remains resilient, this recovery can improve internal funding capacity, support debt reduction, and strengthen the company’s ability to advance long-life mining assets.
Read all positive factors
First Quantum Minerals (FM) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$27.20B
Dividend Yield0.63%
Average Volume (3M)2.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)116.7
Beta (1Y)2.56
Revenue Growth28.43%
EPS Growth279.02%
CountryCA
Employees15,661
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.20
Shares Outstanding834,206,100
10 Day Avg. Volume2,276,749
30 Day Avg. Volume2,738,275
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)2.00
Price to Sales (P/S)4.26
P/FCF Ratio48.17
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$53.00Price Target Upside8.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$6.90B
First Quantum Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
First Quantum Minerals Ltd., through its associated companies, specializes in the exploration, development, and extraction of mineral resources. Its core business involves seeking out and mining a range of ores, including copper, nickel, pyrite, g...
How the Company Makes Money
First Quantum Minerals makes money primarily by selling metal products produced from its mining and processing operations. Its main revenue stream is copper sales, typically in the form of copper concentrate and/or copper cathode depending on the ...
First Quantum Minerals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive, supported by record copper prices, a 37% increase in revenue, EBITDA of $844 million, higher quarterly copper production, progress at Cobre Panama, balance sheet improvement and increased nickel and Guelb Moghrein gold guidance. However, the company also reported lower or revised production guidance in several areas, higher cost guidance from fuel and currency pressures, operational delays at Kansanshi and ongoing legal, commercial and timing uncertainty surrounding a full Cobre Panama restart. Overall, the positive financial and operational developments significantly outweighed the stated challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Copper Price Exposure Improved Financial Performance
With the hedge book behind the company, First Quantum benefited fully from stronger copper prices. LME copper prices reached record highs of $6.74 per pound in the third quarter, contributing to a 37% increase in revenue to $2.1 billion and EBITDA of $844 million, which more than doubled quarter-over-quarter.
Negative Updates
2026 Copper and Gold Guidance Narrowed or Reduced
2026 copper production guidance was narrowed to 175,000 to 185,000 tonnes and gold production guidance was lowered to 95,000 to 105,000 ounces, reflecting performance to date.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Copper Price Exposure Improved Financial Performance
With the hedge book behind the company, First Quantum benefited fully from stronger copper prices. LME copper prices reached record highs of $6.74 per pound in the third quarter, contributing to a 37% increase in revenue to $2.1 billion and EBITDA of $844 million, which more than doubled quarter-over-quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, copper production guidance has been narrowed to between 175,000 and 185,000 tonnes, gold production guidance has been lowered to between 95,000 and 105,000 ounces, Sentinel production guidance has been updated to between 190,000 and 200,000 tonnes of copper, Cobre Panama stockpile processing is expected to produce 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes of copper and 10,000 to 15,000 ounces of gold, Enterprise production guidance has increased to between 40,000 and 45,000 tonnes of contained nickel, Guelb Moghrein copper production guidance is approximately 7,000 tonnes and gold production guidance has increased to 45,000 to 50,000 ounces, copper C1 cost guidance is $2.50 to $2.65 per pound, all-in sustaining cost guidance is $4.10 to $4.25 per pound, Enterprise nickel cost guidance is $3 to $3.25 per pound, and total capital expenditure guidance is $1.15 billion to $1.25 billion; acid sales are assumed at around 45,000 tonnes through the balance, with acid prices above $200 supporting continued sales and potentially about a 1,000-tonne impact per quarter on copper production, Cobre Panama is expected to ramp up to 80% or so in 6 to 9 months and ultimately move toward 100 million tonnes per year, and the company is targeting the region of 1x net debt to EBITDA before project sanction.First Quantum Minerals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.49B | 5.24B | 4.80B | 6.46B | 7.63B | 7.21B |
| Gross Profit | 1.67B | 1.46B | 1.35B | 1.29B | 2.20B | 2.56B |
| EBITDA | 2.32B | 1.78B | 1.59B | 2.22B | 3.27B | 3.57B |
| Net Income | 172.00M | -28.00M | 2.00M | -954.00M | 1.03B | 832.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 25.16B | 25.24B | 24.11B | 23.76B | 25.08B | 25.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 796.00M | 716.00M | 843.00M | 1.16B | 1.69B | 1.86B |
| Total Debt | 6.11B | 5.91B | 6.37B | 7.58B | 7.38B | 7.91B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.43B | 13.70B | 12.21B | 12.98B | 12.84B | 13.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.50B | 11.16B | 11.47B | 10.25B | 10.90B | 10.02B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -107.00M | 462.97M | 365.00M | 127.00M | 1.17B | 1.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.03B | 1.62B | 1.65B | 1.43B | 2.33B | 2.88B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -988.08M | -1.16B | -1.29B | -1.38B | -1.17B | -1.10B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -226.77M | -621.70M | -501.00M | -776.00M | -1.33B | -841.00M |
First Quantum Minerals Technical Analysis
Negative
48.69
Price Trends
41.60
Negative
41.02
Negative
38.98
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.13
Positive
31.04
Neutral
31.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 48.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.78, above the 50-day MA of 41.60, and above the 200-day MA of 38.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:FM.
First Quantum Minerals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | C$13.52B | 12.84 | 18.43% | 0.10% | 13.43% | 129.98% | |
73 Outperform | C$4.24B | 9.77 | 30.09% | ― | 93.28% | 113.62% | |
69 Neutral | C$24.73B | 11.69 | 22.97% | 0.38% | 28.67% | ― | |
66 Neutral | C$8.43B | 12.81 | 9.18% | ― | 30.49% | 4.99% | |
63 Neutral | C$3.77B | 894.27 | 1.33% | ― | 68.28% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
51 Neutral | C$27.20B | 116.65 | 1.53% | 0.63% | 28.43% | 279.02% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:FM
First Quantum Minerals
32.60
4.12
14.47%
TSE:HBM
Hudbay Minerals
30.43
8.18
36.76%
TSE:TKO
Trekor Metals
10.30
4.02
64.01%
TSE:LUN
Lundin Mining
28.90
6.54
29.23%
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
11.00
-1.29
-10.50%
TSE:ERO
Ero Copper
40.67
11.68
40.29%
First Quantum Minerals Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
First Quantum Posts Strong Q3 2026 Results as Cobre Panamá Recommissioning Advances
Positive
Oct 28, 2026
First Quantum Minerals reported a sharp improvement in third-quarter 2026 financial performance, driven by higher copper production, stronger realized metals prices and lower fuel costs. Gross profit more than doubled to $678 million and EBITDA ro...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
First Quantum Opens Door to New Cobre Panamá Pact After Government Report
Positive
Sep 30, 2026
First Quantum Minerals says it will engage constructively with the Government of Panama after a ministerial commission submitted a comprehensive report on the Cobre Panamá mine and recommended opening formal negotiations for a new operating a...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
First Quantum Sets Date for Third-Quarter 2026 Results Amid Operational Shifts
Neutral
Sep 29, 2026
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. will release its third quarter 2026 financial and operating results after the close of the Toronto Stock Exchange on October 28, 2026. The company will follow this disclosure with a conference call and webcast on Octobe...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.