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Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS) AI Stock Analysis
Canada Goose Holdings
(TSX:GOOS)
The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability and elevated leverage despite strong top-line momentum and still-positive cash generation. Technical indicators are bearish with the stock trading below major moving averages, adding near-term risk. Valuation is middling (P/E ~20.6) without a dividend cushion, while the latest earnings call was moderately supportive due to reiterated FY2027 margin guidance and improving gross margin/wholesale trends, tempered by ongoing losses and higher net debt.
Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- CAD 785.19M
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 330.14K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 19.0
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.36
- Revenue Growth
- 12.26%
- EPS Growth
- 20.96%
- Country
- Canada
- Employees
- 4,462
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Apparel - Manufacturers
Canada Goose Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. is a global purveyor of high-end performance outerwear and clothing, serving a diverse clientele from infants to adults. Its meticulously crafted luxury apparel is distributed across Canada, the United States, the Asia Paci...
How the Company Makes Money
Canada Goose primarily makes money by selling branded apparel and accessories at premium price points through two main channels: (1) Direct-to-consumer (DTC) and (2) wholesale. In its DTC business, the company generates revenue through sales made on...
Canada Goose Holdings Earnings Call Summary
The call presented multiple tangible positives: mid‑single‑digit organic revenue growth, strong wholesale momentum (+65% YoY), meaningful gross margin expansion (+100 bps), a >10 percentage point improvement in adjusted EBIT margin, expansion of non‑down categories to ~40% of revenue, and operational investments (logistics, e‑commerce, AI). These gains were balanced against persistent challenges including soft store traffic and negative DTC comparable sales (‑3% YoY), an ongoing adjusted net loss ($87M), rising net debt ($628M), regional softness in EMEA (‑7% revenue) and potential tariff risks. Overall, the highlights (broad revenue diversification, margin improvement, wholesale strength and inventory positioning) materially outweighed the lowlights, which are being addressed through targeted investments and marketing cadence.
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated they remain on track to deliver fiscal 2027 guidance, targeting operating (adjusted EBIT) margin in the 11–12% range, while warning first‑half margins will be modestly pressured by a Q2 marketing step‑up and investments/upgrades to EMEA logistics and e‑commerce (largely to be completed in H1); Q1 metrics underpinning the outlook included revenue of $119M (+9% YoY; +16% ex‑other revenue), gross margin 62.4% (+100 bps), adjusted EBIT loss $104M (margin –87% vs –99% LY), adjusted net loss $87M or $0.89/sh, DTC revenue +7% (DTC comps –3%; U.S. comps –1%), wholesale +65%, apparel/rain/wind ≈40% of Q1 revenue, inventory $490M (+11%; turns 1.0x, +11% YoY), net debt $628M (vs $542M), a 50‑bp reduction in term‑loan spread, and the caution that a proposed U.S. tariff could, if implemented without mitigation, impact FY27 operating margin by less than 200 basis points.
Canada Goose Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue rebounded strongly (TTM +72.6%) and gross margin remains premium (~65%), but profitability is currently compressed (net margin ~1.5%, operating margin ~5.8%) versus prior stronger periods. Leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.29) and returns have weakened, while cash flow remains positive (TTM FCF ~$98M) but has declined (~34%), indicating improving demand but still-stretched earnings quality and balance-sheet risk.
Income Statement
58NeutralBalance Sheet
54NeutralCash Flow
60Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.54B | 1.53B | 1.35B | 1.33B | 1.22B | 1.10B |
| Gross Profit | 974.80M | 934.00M | 943.10M | 917.40M | 815.20M | 733.60M |
| EBITDA | 281.40M | 224.70M | 299.80M | 244.30M | 236.50M | 263.70M |
| Net Income | 56.90M | 22.50M | 94.80M | 58.40M | 72.70M | 94.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.69B | 1.75B | 1.62B | 1.48B | 1.59B | 1.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 206.90M | 408.20M | 334.40M | 144.90M | 286.50M | 287.70M |
| Total Debt | 833.40M | 785.20M | 742.80M | 728.40M | 754.00M | 620.70M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.15B | 1.13B | 1.06B | 1.06B | 1.11B | 912.70M |
| Stockholders Equity | 525.90M | 608.40M | 541.20M | 417.00M | 469.50M | 427.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 98.00M | 149.30M | 274.00M | 108.10M | 68.20M | 114.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 144.00M | 191.90M | 292.40M | 164.60M | 116.30M | 151.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -53.90M | -50.50M | -18.40M | -72.40M | -45.30M | -37.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -68.60M | -70.10M | -93.60M | -232.80M | -80.70M | -298.20M |
Canada Goose Holdings Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GOOS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.20 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.25, above the 50-day MA of 11.09, and below the 200-day MA of 13.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GOOS.
Canada Goose Holdings Risk Analysis
Canada Goose Holdings disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Canada Goose Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
1 New RiskCanada Goose Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
TSE:ATZ76Outperform
TSE:RET58Neutral- TSE:GOOS54Neutral
TSE:DOO53Neutral
TSE:GIL53Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:ATZ | 76Outperform | CAD 17.61B | 30.14 | 42.25% | ― | 40.28% | 108.07% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
| TSE:RET | 58Neutral | CAD 105.76M | -216.67 | -0.09% | ― | 0.89% | -127.61% |
| TSE:GOOS | 54Neutral | CAD 1.07B | 18.98 | 10.37% | ― | 12.26% | 20.96% |
| TSE:DOO | 53Neutral | CAD 6.08B | 56.18 | 20.51% | 1.13% | 19.87% | ― |
| TSE:GIL | 53Neutral | CAD 10.26B | 73.52 | 2.13% | 2.43% | 40.42% | -83.20% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:GOOS | Canada Goose | 11.20 | -8.64 | -43.55% | |
| TSE:GIL | Gildan Activewear | 55.40 | -24.71 | -30.85% | |
| TSE:DOO | Brp Inc | 85.39 | -1.31 | -1.52% | |
| TSE:RET | Reitmans (Canada) Limited | 2.21 | 0.07 | 3.27% | |
| TSE:ATZ | Aritzia | 155.50 | 55.19 | 55.02% |
Canada Goose Holdings Corporate Events
Canada Goose Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Expanded Incentive Plan
PositiveCanada Goose shareholders elected all management-nominated directors at the August 7 annual and special meeting, with each candidate receiving an overwhelming majority of votes, underscoring strong investor support for the current board. Shareholders...
Canada Goose Adds Luxury Veteran Massimo Piombini to Board
PositiveCanada Goose has appointed veteran luxury executive Massimo Piombini to its Board of Directors, effective August 7, 2026, strengthening its governance with deep expertise in brand building, international growth and retail transformation. Piombini, wh...
Canada Goose to Sell Baffin to Royer, Sharpening Focus on Core Lifestyle Brand
PositiveCanada Goose has agreed to sell its performance footwear subsidiary Baffin Limited to L.P. Royer Inc., a Canadian specialist in work and military boots, in a move aimed at sharpening its strategic focus. Acquired in 2018 to build footwear expertise,...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026