Want to see TSE:PBL full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Pollard Banknote
(TSX:PBL)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
C$20.00
▲(10.80% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven primarily by improving operating momentum and constructive guidance from the latest earnings call, supported by bullish technical trend signals. Offsetting these positives are mixed recent financial quality indicators (TTM margin and free-cash-flow deterioration) and a valuation that appears more neutral than deeply discounted, with modest dividend support.
Positive Factors
Instant-ticket growth and margin improvement
Higher ticket volumes, average selling prices and lower spoilage indicate stronger economics in the core business. Scheduled volumes for the rest of 2026 support continued scale, while better gross margins could improve earnings durability if efficiencies persist.
Negative Factors
Recent operating-margin compression
Recent margin deterioration weakens confidence that revenue growth is converting efficiently into operating earnings. Higher development, administration and implementation costs could keep profitability under pressure until digital investments mature.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Instant-ticket growth and margin improvement
Higher ticket volumes, average selling prices and lower spoilage indicate stronger economics in the core business. Scheduled volumes for the rest of 2026 support continued scale, while better gross margins could improve earnings durability if efficiencies persist.
Read all positive factors
Pollard Banknote (PBL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$467.12M
Dividend Yield1.16%
Average Volume (3M)11.96K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.3
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth3.61%
EPS Growth-25.09%
CountryCA
Employees2,555
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.00
Shares Outstanding27,063,670
10 Day Avg. Volume17,581
30 Day Avg. Volume11,958
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-9.85
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.88
P/FCF Ratio9.27
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$31.00Price Target Upside71.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$625.09M
Pollard Banknote Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Pollard Banknote Limited, a global provider and subsidiary of Pollard Equities Limited, specializes in delivering a comprehensive suite of gaming products and services to the lottery and charitable gaming industries. Founded in Winnipeg, Canada, i...
How the Company Makes Money
Pollard Banknote makes money primarily by supplying lottery products and services to lottery operators under contracts and ongoing supply relationships.
Key revenue streams typically include:
1) Instant ticket (scratch-off) products: PBL designs ...
Pollard Banknote Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed stronger operating momentum: revenue, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA and net income all increased quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, driven by instant ticket volume recovery, higher ASPs, digital contract wins (Colorado, Belgium progress) and record charitable eTab results. Key positives include an improved gross margin (18.1% vs 16.7%), reduced interest and FX losses, and an NCIB for share repurchases. Offsetting risks include higher cost of sales and administration expenses, a decline in equity income from the iLottery JV, one-time transition fees, and contract risk/uncertainty around Kansas and other RFPs (and the termination of the Michigan JV interest). On balance, the positive operational and financial trends and strategic digital wins materially outweigh the manageable near-term costs and contract uncertainties.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue rose to $154.8M in Q2 2026 from $142.7M in Q2 2025, an increase of $12.1M or ~8.5%, driven by higher instant ticket volumes, higher average selling prices, and increased ancillary/digital sales.
Negative Updates
Higher Cost of Sales
Cost of sales increased to $126.8M from $118.8M, up $8.0M (+6.7%), primarily due to higher instant ticket volumes and increased iLottery/Belgium development costs (partially offset by favorable FX on U.S.-denominated expenses).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue rose to $154.8M in Q2 2026 from $142.7M in Q2 2025, an increase of $12.1M or ~8.5%, driven by higher instant ticket volumes, higher average selling prices, and increased ancillary/digital sales.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said the Q2 momentum is expected to continue through 2026, pointing to robust scheduled instant‑ticket volumes for the remainder of the year (helped by the new California primary supply), higher instant ticket average selling prices and manufacturing efficiencies that reduced spoilage; Q2 results supporting that view included revenue of $154.8M (up $12.1M YoY), gross profit $28.0M (18.1% margin vs 16.7% in Q2‑2025), adjusted EBITDA $31.1M (vs $29.2M a year ago and $21.5M in Q1), net income $8.7M (EPS $0.32), and cost of sales $126.8M. They also guided that digital contribution will grow as Colorado moves into development, Belgium shifts from scoping to percentage‑of‑completion revenue recognition, PlayOn rollouts reach six installations, charitable eTab revenues (up $2.2M YoY in Minnesota) remain strong, and capital allocation will include an NCIB for ~976,000 shares (~10% of public float), while noting ongoing iLottery ramp costs and JV income variability (NPi income $15.0M vs $17.7M) could affect near‑term results.Pollard Banknote Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 603.55M | 596.02M | 557.10M | 520.44M | 482.28M | 459.01M |
| Gross Profit | 95.06M | 77.00M | 104.72M | 86.58M | 81.82M | 91.10M |
| EBITDA | 59.24M | 112.47M | 106.66M | 93.05M | 71.46M | 71.65M |
| Net Income | 27.06M | 34.65M | 35.20M | 31.42M | 19.28M | 19.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 758.27M | 695.89M | 636.31M | 515.71M | 499.27M | 461.40M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 78.50M | 68.71M | 22.36M | 8.41M | 1.48M | 3.52M |
| Total Debt | 193.88M | 173.01M | 168.52M | 137.23M | 135.28M | 131.70M |
| Total Liabilities | 367.48M | 322.49M | 302.17M | 240.91M | 247.33M | 254.45M |
| Stockholders Equity | 390.80M | 373.40M | 334.13M | 274.80M | 251.93M | 206.96M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 45.83M | 56.66M | 19.92M | 26.53M | -2.82M | 21.71M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 82.45M | 83.33M | 73.90M | 64.63M | 30.40M | 56.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -55.39M | -73.60M | -77.19M | -52.09M | -24.57M | -60.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -24.77M | -2.51M | 16.81M | -10.94M | -7.73M | 6.37M |
Pollard Banknote Technical Analysis
Negative
18.05
Price Trends
17.61
Negative
17.32
Negative
18.16
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
45.19
Neutral
6.56
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PBL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.70, above the 50-day MA of 17.61, and below the 200-day MA of 18.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.56 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:PBL.
Pollard Banknote Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | C$685.91M | 11.70 | 9.97% | 1.38% | 0.90% | 1.97% | |
72 Outperform | C$613.48M | 19.80 | 15.90% | 5.19% | -18.04% | 7.87% | |
69 Neutral | C$467.12M | 17.26 | 7.16% | 1.16% | 3.61% | -25.09% | |
63 Neutral | C$517.23M | 89.63 | 8.44% | ― | 21.49% | 42.38% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
52 Neutral | C$526.42M | 17.09 | 6.64% | 3.54% | 0.35% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:PBL
Pollard Banknote
17.26
-1.44
-7.71%
TSE:ACQ
AutoCanada
22.90
-12.42
-35.16%
TSE:TWC
TWC Enterprises
28.43
5.80
25.64%
TSE:WFC
Wall Financial
19.25
4.33
29.01%
TSE:KITS
Kits Eyecare
15.21
-1.45
-8.70%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.