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GreenFirst Forest Products
(TSX:GFP)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
C$2.00
▼(-0.50% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is primarily weighed down by weak financial performance—ongoing TTM losses, rising leverage, and negative cash generation. Technicals add only limited support due to a mixed trend profile, and valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend. The earnings call provides some offset with clear Q2 improvement and ramp-up guidance, but liquidity and duty/tariff burdens remain significant risks.
Positive Factors
Operational rebound
The sharp Q2 recovery shows that higher throughput, shipments and pricing can materially improve earnings. If operational gains persist, GFP may rebuild profitability and strengthen its ability to absorb cyclical lumber-market pressure.
Negative Factors
Persistent unprofitability
Deep TTM losses indicate that the recent quarterly rebound has not yet translated into durable company-wide profitability. Continued weak earnings reduce internal funding capacity and leave results highly exposed to lumber prices, costs and production execution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operational rebound
The sharp Q2 recovery shows that higher throughput, shipments and pricing can materially improve earnings. If operational gains persist, GFP may rebuild profitability and strengthen its ability to absorb cyclical lumber-market pressure.
Read all positive factors
GreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$42.86M
Dividend Yield23.81%
Average Volume (3M)5.66K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth2.28%
EPS Growth-237.72%
CountryCA
Employees750
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.62
Shares Outstanding23,165,170
10 Day Avg. Volume6,351
30 Day Avg. Volume5,657
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.67
Price to Sales (P/S)0.13
P/FCF Ratio-1.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
GreenFirst Forest Products Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. engages in the forest products business that manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells lumber products in Canada and the United States. The company provides a range of spruce, pine, and fir lumber products; wood...
How the Company Makes Money
GFP makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling wood products, with revenue driven mainly by (1) sales of finished lumber produced at its sawmills and sold into construction and industrial end-markets, where realized prices depend on prevai...
GreenFirst Forest Products Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflects a meaningful operational and financial turnaround in Q2 — production, shipments, realized prices and manufacturing efficiencies combined to deliver a return to positive operating income and EBITDA and a significant sequential revenue increase. However, the business continues to face material headwinds from elevated duties and tariffs, compressed cash balances and ongoing market uncertainty. Management highlighted operational progress (Chapleau ramp-up, mill records, safety) and government support recognition, but also emphasized liquidity management and cautious outlook due to trade and pricing risk.Positive Updates
Strong sequential revenue recovery
Revenue rose to $96.1M in Q2 from $60.6M in Q1, a sequential increase of ~58.6%, and up from $84.5M in Q2 last year (~+13.7% YoY). Lumber sales totaled $91.0M with $5.1M of byproduct revenue.
Negative Updates
Significant duties and tariffs burden
Export duties and tariffs totaled ~$21.1M in Q2 (CEO cited ~$21M), up from $12.1M in Q1 (a ~74% QoQ increase). Management also noted duties were ~$13M higher than Q2 of the prior year (implying a large YoY increase). Year-to-date the company has paid $33M (approximately $26M duties and $7M tariffs).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong sequential revenue recovery
Revenue rose to $96.1M in Q2 from $60.6M in Q1, a sequential increase of ~58.6%, and up from $84.5M in Q2 last year (~+13.7% YoY). Lumber sales totaled $91.0M with $5.1M of byproduct revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that the Chapleau large‑log line will continue ramping through Q3 2026 with full financial contribution expected by year‑end, a torrefied‑pellets feasibility study is due to complete in Q3 (construction potentially starting late 2027 subject to approvals/financing), and the company will pursue top‑quartile operations and the largest producer position in Ontario while reintroducing small, quick‑payback strategic CapEx (Q2 CapEx ≈ $0.9M) and only evaluating larger projects where federal support makes economics compelling. Liquidity and duty management remain priorities: Q2 cash was $2.8M, operating cash generation was $2.4M, the revolver remains available, and export duties were $21.1M in Q2 ($33M YTD: $26M duties, $7M tariffs). Operational targets focus on sustaining the Q2 momentum (production up 22% to ~111M board feet, shipments up ~43% to ~119–120M board feet), continued manufacturing cost improvement (≈$70/1,000 FBM reduction sequentially), and preserving realized pricing (gross $765/MBF, net $486/MBF after duties; realized price gains of ~$60–100/MBF sequentially), all while maintaining strong safety performance.GreenFirst Forest Products Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
16
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 303.90M | 303.55M | 282.85M | 409.62M | 446.26M | 190.48M |
| Gross Profit | 21.33M | 3.56M | 9.04M | -12.45M | 43.08M | 28.25M |
| EBITDA | -72.28M | -78.32M | 5.31M | -30.89M | 29.80M | 264.00K |
| Net Income | -105.35M | -98.84M | -47.07M | -47.02M | -4.13M | -9.62M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 209.64M | 189.82M | 220.47M | 277.94M | 371.50M | 415.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.83M | 3.48M | 27.76M | 2.42M | 25.35M | 36.17M |
| Total Debt | 68.89M | 35.12M | 21.72M | 25.63M | 57.70M | 125.19M |
| Total Liabilities | 163.51M | 129.20M | 74.85M | 92.71M | 147.04M | 186.78M |
| Stockholders Equity | 46.12M | 60.62M | 145.62M | 185.24M | 224.46M | 229.16M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -41.85M | -40.87M | -32.41M | -82.21M | 24.26M | -2.16M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -21.42M | -10.87M | -23.99M | -58.03M | 57.86M | 3.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.84M | -27.83M | 19.67M | 67.36M | 15.06M | -251.65M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 37.72M | 14.42M | 29.65M | -32.26M | -83.75M | 278.61M |
GreenFirst Forest Products Technical Analysis
Negative
2.01
Price Trends
1.94
Negative
2.04
Negative
2.09
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
43.26
Neutral
39.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.96, above the 50-day MA of 1.94, and below the 200-day MA of 2.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GFP.
GreenFirst Forest Products Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$320.26M | 6.64 | 13.35% | 6.74% | -5.88% | 225.50% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
56 Neutral | C$182.55M | -2.16 | -17.78% | 5.53% | -18.00% | -290.71% | |
50 Neutral | C$1.69B | -2.57 | -25.37% | ― | 2.69% | -2.51% | |
44 Neutral | C$42.86M | -0.40 | -184.29% | 23.81% | 2.28% | -237.72% | |
44 Neutral | C$4.08M | -0.09 | -103.21% | 10.58% | -18.46% | -102.32% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:GFP
GreenFirst Forest Products
1.85
-1.00
-35.09%
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4.20%
GreenFirst Forest Products Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
GreenFirst Swings to Profit in Q2 as Lumber Prices Rise and Costs Fall
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
GreenFirst Forest Products reported a sharp turnaround in its second quarter, posting net income of $5.5 million and positive adjusted EBITDA of $11.8 million, compared with a significant loss in the prior quarter. Net sales climbed 59% to $96.1 m...
Financial Disclosures
GreenFirst Schedules Second-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
Neutral
Aug 7, 2026
GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. will release its second-quarter 2026 financial results after markets close on August 10, 2026, and will host an earnings conference call the following morning. The webcast and related presentation materials will be ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.