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GreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) AI Stock Analysis
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GreenFirst Forest Products
(TSX:GFP)
The score is primarily weighed down by weak financial performance—ongoing TTM losses, rising leverage, and negative cash generation. Technicals add only limited support due to a mixed trend profile, and valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend. The earnings call provides some offset with clear Q2 improvement and ramp-up guidance, but liquidity and duty/tariff burdens remain significant risks.
GreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- CAD 23.17M
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 8,443
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -0.3
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.80
- Revenue Growth
- 2.28%
- EPS Growth
- -237.72%
- Country
- Canada
- Employees
- 750
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
GreenFirst Forest Products Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. engages in the forest products business that manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells lumber products in Canada and the United States. The company provides a range of spruce, pine, and fir lumber products; wood ch...
How the Company Makes Money
GFP makes money primarily by manufacturing forest products and selling them to wholesale and industrial customers. Its key revenue stream is the sale of softwood lumber (e.g., dimensional lumber) produced at its sawmilling operations; revenue is gene...
GreenFirst Forest Products Earnings Call Summary
The call reflects a meaningful operational and financial turnaround in Q2 — production, shipments, realized prices and manufacturing efficiencies combined to deliver a return to positive operating income and EBITDA and a significant sequential revenue increase. However, the business continues to face material headwinds from elevated duties and tariffs, compressed cash balances and ongoing market uncertainty. Management highlighted operational progress (Chapleau ramp-up, mill records, safety) and government support recognition, but also emphasized liquidity management and cautious outlook due to trade and pricing risk.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that the Chapleau large‑log line will continue ramping through Q3 2026 with full financial contribution expected by year‑end, a torrefied‑pellets feasibility study is due to complete in Q3 (construction potentially starting late 2027 subject to approvals/financing), and the company will pursue top‑quartile operations and the largest producer position in Ontario while reintroducing small, quick‑payback strategic CapEx (Q2 CapEx ≈ $0.9M) and only evaluating larger projects where federal support makes economics compelling. Liquidity and duty management remain priorities: Q2 cash was $2.8M, operating cash generation was $2.4M, the revolver remains available, and export duties were $21.1M in Q2 ($33M YTD: $26M duties, $7M tariffs). Operational targets focus on sustaining the Q2 momentum (production up 22% to ~111M board feet, shipments up ~43% to ~119–120M board feet), continued manufacturing cost improvement (≈$70/1,000 FBM reduction sequentially), and preserving realized pricing (gross $765/MBF, net $486/MBF after duties; realized price gains of ~$60–100/MBF sequentially), all while maintaining strong safety performance.
GreenFirst Forest Products Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial statements indicate elevated fundamental risk: TTM results remain deeply unprofitable with a sizable net loss and weak margins, leverage has risen sharply (higher debt-to-equity alongside declining equity), and both operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative, increasing funding/liquidity pressure.
Income Statement
18Very NegativeBalance Sheet
34NegativeCash Flow
16Very Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 303.90M | 303.55M | 282.85M | 409.62M | 446.26M | 190.48M |
| Gross Profit | 21.33M | 3.56M | 9.04M | -12.45M | 43.08M | 28.25M |
| EBITDA | -72.28M | -78.32M | 5.31M | -30.19M | 29.80M | -1.29M |
| Net Income | -105.35M | -98.84M | -47.07M | -47.02M | -4.13M | -9.62M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 209.64M | 189.82M | 220.47M | 277.94M | 371.50M | 415.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.83M | 3.48M | 27.76M | 2.42M | 25.35M | 36.17M |
| Total Debt | 68.89M | 35.12M | 21.72M | 25.63M | 57.70M | 125.19M |
| Total Liabilities | 163.51M | 129.20M | 74.85M | 92.71M | 147.04M | 186.78M |
| Stockholders Equity | 46.12M | 60.62M | 145.62M | 185.24M | 224.46M | 229.16M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -41.85M | -40.87M | -32.41M | -82.21M | 24.26M | -2.16M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -21.42M | -10.87M | -23.99M | -58.03M | 57.86M | 3.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.84M | -27.83M | 19.67M | 67.36M | 15.06M | -251.65M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 37.72M | 14.42M | 29.65M | -32.26M | -83.75M | 278.61M |
GreenFirst Forest Products Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.53, below the 50-day MA of 1.73, and below the 200-day MA of 2.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.19 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.12 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GFP.
GreenFirst Forest Products Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
TSE:ADN67Neutral
TSE:WEF54Neutral
TSE:CFP50Neutral
TSE:CFF45Neutral- TSE:GFP44Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:ADN | 67Neutral | CAD 317.65M | 6.41 | 13.52% | 6.80% | -1.45% | 220.30% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
| TSE:WEF | 54Neutral | CAD 163.02M | -1.93 | -17.78% | ― | -18.00% | -290.71% |
| TSE:CFP | 50Neutral | CAD 1.75B | -2.66 | -25.37% | ― | 2.69% | -2.51% |
| TSE:CFF | 45Neutral | CAD 4.28M | -0.09 | -103.21% | ― | -18.46% | -102.32% |
| TSE:GFP | 44Neutral | CAD 31.04M | -0.29 | -184.29% | ― | 2.28% | -237.72% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:GFP | Greenfirst Forest Products Inc. | 1.34 | -0.92 | -40.71% | |
| TSE:ADN | Acadian Timber | 17.06 | 3.86 | 29.20% | |
| TSE:CFF | Conifex Timber | 0.10 | -0.13 | -54.35% | |
| TSE:WEF | Western Forest Prod | 15.44 | 3.74 | 31.97% | |
| TSE:CFP | Canfor Corp. | 14.95 | 2.73 | 22.34% |
GreenFirst Forest Products Corporate Events
GreenFirst Secures Ontario Funding for Chapleau Mill Upgrades and Biomass Expansion
PositiveGreenFirst Forest Products Inc., a sustainable lumber producer operating four sawmills across Northern Ontario, manages over 6 million hectares of FSC®-certified public forestlands. The company’s forest-first model seeks to capture cyclica...
GreenFirst Swings to Profit in Q2 as Lumber Prices Rise and Costs Fall
PositiveGreenFirst Forest Products reported a sharp turnaround in its second quarter, posting net income of $5.5 million and positive adjusted EBITDA of $11.8 million, compared with a significant loss in the prior quarter. Net sales climbed 59% to $96.1 mill...
GreenFirst Schedules Second-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
NeutralGreenFirst Forest Products Inc. will release its second-quarter 2026 financial results after markets close on August 10, 2026, and will host an earnings conference call the following morning. The webcast and related presentation materials will be mad...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026