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Conifex Timber
(TSX:CFF)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
C$0.10
▼(-15.00% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/19/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (sustained losses, negative cash flows, and sharply higher leverage). Technicals show modest improvement with the stock trading above key moving averages, and the earnings call adds some support via improving EBITDA trend and a defined restart plan, but execution is contingent on financing and burdened by substantial duty/tariff-related liquidity pressure. Valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Local fiber advantage
A substantial local sawlog surplus and competitive delivered log costs can support lower production costs and more reliable raw-material access once operations normalize. This creates a durable site-level advantage that may improve margins and competitiveness across future operating cycles.
Negative Factors
Rapidly rising leverage
The sharp increase in leverage and erosion of the equity base materially reduce financial flexibility. Higher indebtedness leaves less capacity to fund the restart internally, absorb prolonged weakness, or pursue growth, while continued losses could further pressure the capital structure.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Local fiber advantage
A substantial local sawlog surplus and competitive delivered log costs can support lower production costs and more reliable raw-material access once operations normalize. This creates a durable site-level advantage that may improve margins and competitiveness across future operating cycles.
Read all positive factors
Conifex Timber (CFF) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.28M
Dividend Yield10.58%
Average Volume (3M)44.72K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.73
Revenue Growth-18.46%
EPS Growth-102.32%
CountryCA
Employees244
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.15
Shares Outstanding40,767,710
10 Day Avg. Volume5,109
30 Day Avg. Volume44,717
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.02
P/FCF Ratio-0.28
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Conifex Timber Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Conifex Timber Inc. is principally involved in the global production and distribution of lumber products, serving markets across the United States, China, Canada, and Japan. Its operations cover the full forestry cycle, encompassing timber harvest...
How the Company Makes Money
Conifex primarily makes money by converting harvested logs into lumber products and selling those products at market-based prices. Its main revenue stream is the sale of lumber (e.g., dimensional lumber and related wood products) produced at its s...
Conifex Timber Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear operational and strategic positives—improving EBITDA, strong local fiber advantages, lender support, and a defined restart and capital program—with significant near-term risks from large cumulative U.S. duties/tariffs, low capacity utilization, and financing uncertainty. Management presented a credible path to returning to two-shift operations and potential EBITDA positivity in 2026, but those outcomes are contingent on securing additional funding and favorable market/duty developments.Positive Updates
Improved EBITDA Loss in Q2
EBITDA loss narrowed to $6.3M in Q2 from $7.7M in Q1, an improvement of $1.4M (approximately an 18% reduction in the EBITDA loss quarter-over-quarter).
Negative Updates
Curtailments and Low Capacity Utilization
Lumber production for the first half of 2026 was 35.8 million board feet, equating to roughly 30% capacity utilization due to single-shift curtailments—contributing to continued net losses and underleveraged fixed costs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improved EBITDA Loss in Q2
EBITDA loss narrowed to $6.3M in Q2 from $7.7M in Q1, an improvement of $1.4M (approximately an 18% reduction in the EBITDA loss quarter-over-quarter).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that resumption of operations in the back half of 2026 is contingent on securing additional financing and that its immediate priorities are to secure capital to launch a winter logging program, build sawlog inventories to support 2‑shift steady‑state operations before year‑end, restart the power plant on a 7x24 basis, and complete ~ $15.3 million of quick‑payback capital projects (2–3 year paybacks); management said H1 lumber production was 35.8 million board feet (~30% capacity), Q2 net loss was $9.5M (Q1 $9.4M) with EPS loss $0.23 in both quarters, and EBITDA loss improved to $6.3M in Q2 from $7.7M in Q1 (a $1.4M improvement); they noted cumulative U.S. duties/tariffs of USD 49.4M (~CAD 68M) which equals the lumber borrowings and working capital deficit of CAD 68M, pointed to strong fiber economics in Mackenzie (annual sawlog supply 2.3M m3 vs Conifex need ~800k m3 and delivered log costs representing ~2/3 of total cost), and said that, assuming analyst consensus SPF pricing (cited ~USD 522 for 2027), lower unit costs from higher utilization, and expected duty deposit rate decreases later this year and next, the integrated Mackenzie site is expected to be EBITDA‑positive in 2026 (while noting there are no guarantees on obtaining government funding).Conifex Timber Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 109.03M | 142.75M | 127.74M | 141.16M | 231.27M | 250.53M |
| Gross Profit | -18.27M | 15.80M | 3.84M | -5.82M | 65.55M | 72.44M |
| EBITDA | -43.53M | -28.23M | -15.12M | -25.77M | 35.86M | 51.49M |
| Net Income | -47.04M | -35.67M | -29.78M | -30.63M | 24.49M | 27.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 199.63M | 207.67M | 203.88M | 218.99M | 257.26M | 231.46M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.65M | 6.93M | 3.64M | 4.19M | 8.44M | 6.35M |
| Total Debt | 101.79M | 87.65M | 77.32M | 63.85M | 62.80M | 59.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 168.83M | 157.93M | 118.04M | 103.49M | 111.00M | 101.63M |
| Stockholders Equity | 30.80M | 49.74M | 85.84M | 115.50M | 146.27M | 129.83M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -18.94M | -10.04M | -10.70M | -2.99M | 11.31M | 20.33M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -14.97M | -5.52M | -6.62M | 3.62M | 24.83M | 26.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.97M | -4.53M | -4.08M | -5.20M | -12.81M | -5.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 16.10M | 9.34M | 10.15M | -2.67M | -9.94M | -25.73M |
Conifex Timber Technical Analysis
Negative
0.12
Price Trends
0.11
Negative
0.12
Negative
0.12
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
44.82
Neutral
41.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CFF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.11, above the 50-day MA of 0.11, and below the 200-day MA of 0.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CFF.
Conifex Timber Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | C$317.65M | 6.41 | 13.52% | 6.80% | -1.45% | 220.30% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
56 Neutral | C$163.02M | -1.93 | -17.78% | 5.53% | -18.00% | -290.71% | |
50 Neutral | C$1.75B | -2.66 | -25.37% | ― | 2.69% | -2.51% | |
45 Neutral | C$4.28M | -0.09 | -103.21% | 10.58% | -18.46% | -102.32% | |
44 Neutral | C$31.04M | -0.29 | -184.29% | 23.81% | 2.28% | -237.72% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:CFF
Conifex Timber
0.11
-0.13
-55.32%
TSE:GFP
GreenFirst Forest Products
1.34
-1.03
-43.46%
TSE:ADN
Acadian Timber
17.06
3.67
27.41%
TSE:WEF
Western Forest Prod
15.44
3.51
29.42%
TSE:CFP
Canfor
14.95
2.72
22.24%
Conifex Timber Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Conifex Names Spencer Bell as New Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Oct 1, 2026
Conifex Timber Inc. has appointed Spencer Bell as Chief Financial Officer and Corporate Secretary, effective October 1, 2026, recognizing his progression through key finance roles since joining the company in 2021. Bell played a central role in se...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Conifex Secures $30 Million Federal Loan to Support Mackenzie Mill Restart
Positive
Sep 18, 2026
Conifex Timber Inc. has secured a Government of Canada Large Enterprise Tariff Loan facility providing up to $30 million in additional liquidity to support operations amid weak lumber markets. The seven-year, market-rate facility is secured agains...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.