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Acadian Timber
(TSX:ADN)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
C$19.00
▲(11.83% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score reflects mixed fundamentals: a relatively solid balance sheet but uneven earnings and cash-flow consistency. Valuation is a key positive (low P/E and high yield), while the latest earnings call was balanced—operational progress and improving guidance are offset by weaker near-term results and refinancing/timing risks (March 2027 maturity; delayed carbon credit issuance). Technicals are mildly supportive with price above key moving averages but neutral momentum.
Positive Factors
Moderate leverage and improving equity
Moderate leverage and rising equity provide financial resilience for a timber business exposed to cyclical prices. This supports continued asset management and investment while limiting dependence on aggressive borrowing.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue and uneven profitability
Falling sales and sharply lower earnings demonstrate current sensitivity to customer inventories, harvest volumes and product demand. Profitability has also been unusually volatile, making durable earnings power harder to assess.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Moderate leverage and improving equity
Moderate leverage and rising equity provide financial resilience for a timber business exposed to cyclical prices. This supports continued asset management and investment while limiting dependence on aggressive borrowing.
Read all positive factors
Acadian Timber (ADN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$316.35M
Dividend Yield6.84%
Average Volume (3M)15.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.5
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth-5.88%
EPS Growth225.50%
CountryCA
Employees195
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.59
Shares Outstanding18,619,713
10 Day Avg. Volume19,335
30 Day Avg. Volume15,100
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.80
Price to Sales (P/S)3.32
P/FCF Ratio79.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$18.00Price Target Upside5.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$104.70M
Acadian Timber Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Acadian Timber Corp. is a key producer of essential raw forest materials, serving markets across Eastern Canada and the Northeastern United States. Its operations are structured into two main divisions: NB Timberlands and Maine Timberlands. The co...
How the Company Makes Money
Acadian Timber makes money primarily by selling timber harvested from its owned and managed timberlands. Its core revenue stream is timber sales (e.g., logs and other timber products) delivered to customers such as sawmills and other wood-product ...
Acadian Timber Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: near-term financial results weakened (notable declines in revenue, adjusted EBITDA and net income), but management has demonstrated concrete operational improvements in Maine, reduced unit costs, improved liquidity, and a growing pipeline of non-timber opportunities (renewables, carbon credits, residential development). Several short-term headwinds remain (soft pulpwood demand, elevated fuel and hauling costs, a $45M debt maturity in Mar 2027 and delayed carbon issuance), but management expects continued operational progress and a positive outlook for the remainder of 2026.Positive Updates
Price Strength — Weighted Average Selling Price +19%
Weighted average selling price increased ~19% year-over-year (driven by stronger softwood lumber markets, higher fuel surcharges and longer hauling distances); Maine selling price rose ~16%.
Negative Updates
Decline in Adjusted EBITDA and Net Income
Adjusted EBITDA fell to $1.3 million in Q2 2026 from $2.4 million in Q2 2025 (≈ -46%). Net income decreased to $1.3 million from $2.7 million (≈ -52%). Net income per share declined to $0.07 from $0.15 (≈ -53%).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Price Strength — Weighted Average Selling Price +19%
Weighted average selling price increased ~19% year-over-year (driven by stronger softwood lumber markets, higher fuel surcharges and longer hauling distances); Maine selling price rose ~16%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to expect improving results through the balance of 2026: Q2 metrics included $14.6M revenue, $1.3M adjusted EBITDA and $1.3M net income ($0.07/share vs $0.15/share in Q2 2025), a 19% increase in weighted average selling price (16% in Maine), total sales of $12.0M (vs $14.4M), Maine sales of $2.6M (vs $2.7M) with pre-hold volumes down 31%, Maine adjusted EBITDA improving to -$0.4M from -$0.9M, cost of sales per m3 in Maine down 7%, and operating costs down $1.7M year-over-year; liquidity remains $15M while $45M of long-term debt matures in March 2027 (management intends to refinance), they expect contractor availability in New Brunswick and sales to match harvesting capacity, sawlog demand to be relatively stable but pulpwood/biomass pricing to remain soft, carbon credit issuance now expected in H2 2026, renewables income modest near-term with potential to be ~10x timber income in 4–5 years, and a Maine residential development targeted to be shovel-ready by end‑2026 with revenue in 2027.Acadian Timber Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 82.97M | 86.96M | 116.19M | 93.48M | 90.47M | 95.73M |
| Gross Profit | 23.52M | 26.52M | 38.27M | 29.22M | 27.58M | 30.80M |
| EBITDA | 69.75M | 73.44M | 34.63M | 43.56M | 52.51M | 29.69M |
| Net Income | 47.43M | 48.97M | 21.74M | 29.43M | 35.51M | 18.68M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 642.11M | 633.61M | 608.02M | 567.95M | 547.84M | 516.64M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.50M | 4.81M | 15.25M | 1.83M | 6.23M | 7.32M |
| Total Debt | 116.73M | 110.71M | 114.94M | 105.52M | 107.94M | 100.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 280.19M | 273.87M | 268.99M | 248.97M | 244.11M | 225.16M |
| Stockholders Equity | 361.92M | 359.74M | 339.03M | 318.98M | 303.72M | 291.49M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.51M | 3.62M | 23.55M | 9.79M | 14.86M | 15.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.96M | 6.82M | 34.05M | 10.41M | 15.23M | 16.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 580.00K | -8.52M | -9.14M | 56.00K | -319.00K | 186.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -8.69M | -8.74M | -11.49M | -14.87M | -16.00M | -19.36M |
Acadian Timber Technical Analysis
Negative
16.99
Price Trends
17.48
Negative
17.23
Negative
16.41
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.15
Positive
38.30
Neutral
12.76
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ADN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.40, below the 50-day MA of 17.48, and above the 200-day MA of 16.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:ADN.
Acadian Timber Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | C$316.35M | 6.55 | 13.35% | 6.61% | -5.88% | 225.50% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | C$7.37B | -3.63 | -24.96% | 1.90% | -11.06% | -888.45% | |
58 Neutral | C$919.42M | -2.23 | -30.64% | ― | -7.37% | -92.84% | |
56 Neutral | C$189.52M | -2.31 | -22.88% | ― | -18.00% | -290.71% | |
50 Neutral | C$1.68B | -2.62 | -25.37% | ― | 2.69% | -2.51% | |
39 Underperform | C$4.89M | -0.10 | -79.83% | ― | -18.46% | -102.32% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:ADN
Acadian Timber
16.97
0.34
2.03%
TSE:WFG
West Fraser Timber Co
95.67
-2.38
-2.43%
TSE:CFF
Conifex Timber
0.12
-0.19
-60.66%
TSE:WEF
Western Forest Prod
18.46
5.92
47.21%
TSE:IFP
Interfor
14.98
2.22
17.40%
TSE:CFP
Canfor
14.70
1.54
11.70%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.