Acadian Timber (ADN) AI Stock Analysis

Acadian Timber

(TSX:ADN)

Select Model

Rating:70Outperform

Price Target:CAD 19.00▲(11.37% Upside)

Action:upgraded

Date:10/30/26

The score is primarily supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a generally sound financial profile with moderate leverage and strong reported profitability. It is held back by uneven revenue trends and inconsistent cash conversion, while technicals are neutral and the latest earnings call is constructive but includes notable near-term demand/cost and refinancing risks.

Positive Factors

Timberland ownership and recurring harvest modelOwnership of timberlands provides a durable asset base that can support recurring harvests across multiple periods. Sustainable forest management and silviculture help preserve long-term productivity, while diversified softwood and hardwood sales provide ongoing exposure to regional wood-product demand.

Negative Factors

Weak pulpwood demand and customer curtailmentsPersistent weakness in pulpwood demand can reduce harvest opportunities, product mix quality and realized volumes across both operating regions. A major customer curtailment adds uncertainty because reduced mill activity may persist beyond one quarter and pressure regional supply-demand conditions.

Acadian Timber (ADN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Market Cap: CAD 317.65M
Dividend Yield: 6.80%
Average Volume (3M): 8,190
Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.4
Beta (1Y): 0.41
Revenue Growth: -1.45%
EPS Growth: 220.30%
Country: Canada
Employees: 195
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products

Acadian Timber Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Acadian Timber Corp. is a key producer of essential raw forest materials, serving markets across Eastern Canada and the Northeastern United States. Its operations are structured into two main divisions: NB Timberlands and Maine Timberlands. The compa...

How the Company Makes Money

Acadian Timber primarily makes money by selling timber harvested from its owned and managed timberlands. Revenue is generated through the sale of different product categories (commonly including softwood sawlogs, hardwood sawlogs, and pulpwood/fiber)...

Acadian Timber Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 27, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-0.81%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 09, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was broadly positive. Highlights included improved adjusted EBITDA and net income, sharply better Maine operating performance, higher pricing, progress in real estate and environmental solutions, and a positive longer-term regional outlook. These developments outweighed challenges involving lower New Brunswick volumes and EBITDA, weak softwood pulpwood demand, higher New Brunswick variable costs, customer curtailments, elevated fuel costs, tariff uncertainty and the $45.3 million debt maturity scheduled for March 2027.

Positive Updates

Improved Quarterly Profitability

Acadian generated $5 million of adjusted EBITDA and $4.4 million of net income in Q3 2026, compared to $3.5 million of adjusted EBITDA and $2.9 million of net income in Q3 2025. Net income per share increased to $0.23 from $0.16.

Negative Updates

Lower New Brunswick Volumes and EBITDA

New Brunswick freehold sales volumes, excluding biomass, decreased 21% from Q3 2025, primarily because of lower softwood sales volumes associated with elevated customer roundwood inventories and abundant sawmill residuals. Total sales declined to $19.4 million from $20.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA declined to $3.9 million from $4.4 million.

Company Guidance

Acadian expects to retain sufficient capacity in New Brunswick through the remainder of 2026 and into the 2027 winter season with steady volumes over the coming quarters, and said it is now feeling that the things are in a normalized situation when it comes to customer inventories, their demand and therefore, our ability to deliver the wood that we cut them in New Brunswick for Q4; in Maine, it expects the business to continue delivering stronger results in 2026 compared to 2025 and stronger results in 2027 compared to what we have achieved so far this year. Softwood pulpwood demand continues being weak in both New Brunswick and Maine, while hardwood pulpwood demand is expected to remain steady in the short term, demand for softwood and hardwood sawtimber is expected to hold steady in both New Brunswick and Maine, and Acadian does not anticipate significant near-term changes to our markets or pricing over the coming months, while maintaining a positive longer-term outlook as end-use markets improve and customers increase their consumption.

Acadian Timber Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Reported profitability is strong (TTM net margin ~58%) and leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity ~0.31–0.36) with improving ROE (~13.5%). The main drag is cash-flow reliability: operating cash flow is low versus earnings in TTM (~17% coverage) and cash generation has been volatile across years, alongside uneven revenue trends.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

74Positive

Cash Flow

56Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	83.97M	86.96M	116.19M	93.48M	90.47M	95.73M
Gross Profit	24.85M	26.52M	38.27M	29.22M	27.58M	30.80M
EBITDA	69.28M	73.44M	34.63M	43.56M	52.51M	29.69M
Net Income	48.89M	48.97M	21.74M	29.43M	35.51M	18.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	643.77M	633.61M	608.02M	567.95M	547.84M	516.64M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.75M	4.81M	15.25M	1.83M	6.23M	7.32M
Total Debt	115.04M	110.71M	114.94M	105.52M	107.94M	100.89M
Total Liabilities	280.37M	273.87M	268.99M	248.97M	244.11M	225.16M
Stockholders Equity	363.40M	359.74M	339.03M	318.98M	303.72M	291.49M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.95M	3.62M	23.55M	9.79M	14.86M	15.90M
Operating Cash Flow	10.42M	6.82M	34.05M	10.41M	15.23M	16.23M
Investing Cash Flow	1.79M	-8.52M	-9.14M	56.00K	-319.00K	186.00K
Financing Cash Flow	-9.89M	-8.74M	-11.49M	-14.87M	-16.00M	-19.36M

Acadian Timber Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price17.06

Price Trends

50DMA17.07Negative

100DMA17.14Negative

200DMA16.72Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.00Negative

RSI47.51Neutral

STOCH45.05Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ADN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.07, below the 50-day MA of 17.07, and above the 200-day MA of 16.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:ADN.

Acadian Timber Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

TSE:ADN against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSE:ADN	70Outperform	CAD 317.65M	6.41	13.52%	6.80%	-1.45%	220.30%
Sector *	61Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TSE:IFP	59Neutral	CAD 899.03M	-2.03	-30.64%	―	-7.37%	-92.84%
TSE:WFG	53Neutral	CAD 7.34B	-3.83	-24.07%	1.91%	-7.92%	-344.24%
TSE:CFP	50Neutral	CAD 1.75B	-2.66	-25.37%	―	2.69%	-2.51%
TSE:CFF	45Neutral	CAD 4.28M	-0.09	-103.21%	―	-18.46%	-102.32%
TSE:WEF	45Neutral	CAD 163.02M	-1.93	-17.78%	―	-18.00%	-290.71%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:ADN and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
TSE:ADN	Acadian Timber	17.06	3.86	29.20%
TSE:WFG	West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.	93.70	10.83	13.07%
TSE:CFF	Conifex Timber	0.10	-0.13	-54.35%
TSE:WEF	Western Forest Prod	15.44	3.74	31.97%
TSE:IFP	Interfor (OTC)	13.67	5.72	71.95%
TSE:CFP	Canfor Corp.	14.95	2.73	22.34%

Acadian Timber Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures

Acadian Timber Lifts Q3 Earnings on Maine Operational Gains

Positive

Oct 28, 2026

Acadian Timber reported third-quarter 2026 results showing sales of $24.0 million, up from $23.0 million a year earlier, with net income rising to $4.4 million and Adjusted EBITDA to $5.0 million. The company’s Adjusted EBITDA margin improved t...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2026

Acadian Timber AI Stock Analysis