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FirstService
(TSX:FSV)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
C$223.00
▲(14.09% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
The score reflects strong trend/momentum and a constructive outlook from management, balanced against only mid-level underlying financial quality due to thin net margins, leverage/cash-flow variability (including negative TTM free cash flow), and a premium valuation (high P/E with a low dividend yield) that increases downside risk if execution softens—particularly in roofing and Home Services.
Positive Factors
Recurring residential management revenue
Contracted residential management relationships provide a recurring revenue foundation that is less dependent on individual project timing. A broad base of managed communities can support predictable cash generation, cross-selling, and continued reinvestment in acquisitions and operating capabilities.
Negative Factors
Thin profitability limits earnings leverage
Thin net margins leave limited cushion if labor, materials, or operating costs increase, and they constrain how much revenue growth converts into earnings. The recent gross-margin decline reinforces the risk that continued expansion may not produce proportionate profit growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring residential management revenue
Contracted residential management relationships provide a recurring revenue foundation that is less dependent on individual project timing. A broad base of managed communities can support predictable cash generation, cross-selling, and continued reinvestment in acquisitions and operating capabilities.
Read all positive factors
FirstService (FSV) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$8.89B
Dividend Yield0.86%
Average Volume (3M)121.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.9
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth2.98%
EPS Growth7.81%
CountryCA
Employees30,000
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.27
Shares Outstanding45,722,485
10 Day Avg. Volume109,335
30 Day Avg. Volume121,668
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio5.50
Price to Book (P/B)5.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.27
P/FCF Ratio21.85
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$264.00Price Target Upside35.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)8.63
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$8.07B
FirstService Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
FirstService Corporation, headquartered in Toronto, Canada, and established in 1989, provides a comprehensive array of property management and essential property services to both residential and commercial clients across the United States and Cana...
How the Company Makes Money
FirstService makes money primarily by selling recurring and project-based property services through its two operating segments.
1) FirstService Residential (property management and related services)
- Management fees: The core revenue stream is c...
FirstService Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 09, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly constructive: the company delivered 6% revenue growth, 4% organic growth, 7% adjusted EPS growth, strong Residential and Restoration performance, improving roofing backlog, solid cash flow and a positive full-year outlook. These strengths outweighed meaningful challenges in roofing, Home Services demand, restoration claims, acquisition competition, limited forecasting visibility and higher leverage following buybacks.Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue and Earnings Growth
Third-quarter revenue was $1.53 billion, up 6% year over year, including 4% organic growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased 3% to $170 million, adjusted EPS was $1.89 and increased 7% quarter-over-quarter, and year-to-date adjusted EPS was $4.57, up 4% from $4.39.
Negative Updates
Consolidated EBITDA Margin Compression
Third-quarter consolidated EBITDA margin declined to 11.1% from 11.4% in the prior-year quarter, even though EBITDA increased 3%. FirstService Brands EBITDA was flat at $102 million and its margin declined 80 basis points to 11.3% from 12.1%.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Revenue and Earnings Growth
Third-quarter revenue was $1.53 billion, up 6% year over year, including 4% organic growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased 3% to $170 million, adjusted EPS was $1.89 and increased 7% quarter-over-quarter, and year-to-date adjusted EPS was $4.57, up 4% from $4.39.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q4, FirstService Residential expects a similar result, with more significant margin expansion than the year-to-date performance and at least double the 30 basis points seen year to date; Restoration Brands expect mid to high single-digit growth, roofing expects mid-single-digit reported growth and organic growth that is flat to slightly down from the prior year, Home Services expects revenues to be flat in aggregate and down low single digit organically, and Century Fire expects to finish the year with a similarly strong 10%+ revenue growth. Consolidated revenue growth is expected to be similar mid-single-digit for Q4, consolidated margins slightly higher than prior year, and Brands margins modestly lower; Home Services margin should be roughly in line with Q4 last year. For the full year, the company expects mid-single-digit growth in consolidated annual revenues, at the upper end of the range expected at mid-year, mid-single-digit consolidated annual EBITDA growth, and margins relatively in line compared to prior year; full-year CapEx is expected to come in at approximately $125 million, compared with original 2026 budgeted CapEx of $140 million.FirstService Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.64B | 5.59B | 5.22B | 4.33B | 3.75B | 3.25B |
| Gross Profit | 1.26B | 1.50B | 1.72B | 1.39B | 1.18B | 1.05B |
| EBITDA | 533.31M | 541.54M | 506.02M | 378.64M | 329.31M | 324.01M |
| Net Income | 146.66M | 147.59M | 134.38M | 100.39M | 121.07M | 135.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.45B | 4.28B | 4.19B | 3.63B | 2.77B | 2.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 184.62M | 179.76M | 227.60M | 187.62M | 136.22M | 165.66M |
| Total Debt | 318.81M | 1.38B | 1.57B | 1.42B | 952.16M | 823.19M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.97B | 2.42B | 2.56B | 2.27B | 1.63B | 1.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 936.83M | 1.37B | 1.19B | 1.02B | 907.47M | 799.72M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 301.97M | 323.81M | 172.88M | 187.63M | 28.28M | 109.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 422.77M | 453.75M | 285.67M | 280.36M | 105.89M | 167.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -215.22M | -283.92M | -323.70M | -646.33M | -160.80M | -206.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -268.20M | -233.51M | 74.41M | 413.94M | 18.78M | 24.43M |
FirstService Technical Analysis
Neutral
195.46
Price Trends
190.25
Positive
194.48
Negative
196.79
Negative
Market Momentum
3.15
Negative
53.26
Neutral
58.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FSV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 195.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 189.80, above the 50-day MA of 190.25, and below the 200-day MA of 196.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:FSV.
FirstService Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | C$1.68B | -79.83 | -5.13% | 1.22% | -7.33% | 54.42% | |
66 Neutral | C$8.89B | 42.89 | 11.77% | 0.86% | 2.98% | 7.81% | |
66 Neutral | C$1.57B | 9.10 | 9.49% | 0.19% | 5.14% | -43.08% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | C$6.71B | 43.41 | 7.23% | 0.32% | 14.17% | -4.41% | |
49 Neutral | C$1.50B | -35.63 | -50.22% | 0.29% | 8.75% | -1098.96% | |
48 Neutral | C$23.80M | 10.04 | -2.50% | 53.78% | -6.17% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
TSE:FSV
FirstService
194.36
-21.19
-9.83%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.