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Extendicare (TSE:EXE)
TSX:EXE
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Extendicare (EXE) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:EXE

Extendicare

(TSX:EXE)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
C$17.50
▲(8.97% Upside)
Extendicare's overall stock score is driven by its robust earnings call performance and strategic growth initiatives, which are the most significant factors. The company's solid financial performance and reasonable valuation further support the score. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to overbought conditions, which slightly tempers the overall positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Strategic Acquisitions
The acquisition of additional care homes expands Extendicare's capacity and market presence, supporting long-term growth and revenue generation.
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates a stable demand for Extendicare's services, reinforcing its market position and potential for future expansion.
Improved Margins
Margin improvement reflects efficient operations and cost management, enhancing profitability and financial health over the long term.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Significant leverage can increase financial risk and limit flexibility, potentially impacting long-term stability and investment capacity.
Decline in Managed Services
A decline in the Managed Services segment could signal challenges in maintaining service contracts, affecting overall revenue diversity and growth.
Low Net Profit Margin
A low net profit margin indicates limited profitability, which may constrain reinvestment opportunities and shareholder returns over time.

Extendicare (EXE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Extendicare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionExtendicare Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides care and services for seniors in Canada. The company offers long term care (LTC) services; retirement living services; and home health care services, such as nursing care, occupational, physical and speech therapy, and assistance with daily activities, as well as contract and consulting services to third parties. It operates a network of 119 LTC homes and retirement communities, as well as home health care operations under the Extendicare, Esprit Lifestyle Communities, ParaMed, Extendicare Assist, and SGP Purchasing Partner Network brands. Extendicare Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Markham, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyExtendicare generates revenue primarily through government funding and private pay for its healthcare services. The majority of its income comes from long-term care facilities, where it receives per diem funding from provincial governments based on the level of care required by residents. Additionally, the company earns revenue from home health care services, which are often funded through a combination of public health insurance and private payments. Extendicare also has partnerships with various healthcare organizations and agencies, which help to expand its service offerings and enhance its market reach. These partnerships can lead to additional contracts and revenue opportunities. Furthermore, the company may benefit from economies of scale and operational efficiencies, which can improve profit margins across its service lines.

Extendicare Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Extendicare reported robust growth and strategic expansion through acquisitions, which strengthened its position in the long-term and home care sectors. Despite some challenges such as increased operating costs due to seasonal factors and a decline in the Managed Services segment, the overall performance and future growth prospects indicate a positive outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Organic Growth and Improved Margins
Adjusted EBITDA increased to $39.8 million, up 3% over the prior year. Excluding out-of-period items, adjusted EBITDA increased by 15.4% with home health care leading the way. Average daily volumes were up 10.9% from the prior year, and NOI margin improved by 90 basis points to 13.5%.
Strategic Acquisitions and Expansion
Extendicare closed the acquisition of 9 Class C long-term care homes and a parcel of land for $41.9 million, adding 822 long-term care beds and 574 private pay retirement beds. Additionally, the acquisition of Closing the Gap for $75.1 million added more than 1,200 caregivers and 1.1 million service hours to the home health segment.
Increase in AFFO and Dividend Payout Ratio
AFFO increased to $0.29 per share, up 23.1% year-over-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 46% on a trailing 12-month basis.
Enhanced Liquidity Position
Senior secured credit facility increased by $100 million, leaving Extendicare in a strong liquidity position with $152 million available on the revolver and $73 million cash on hand at quarter end.
Negative Updates
Impact of Easter on Operating Costs
Higher operating costs were noted across all segments due to the Easter holiday impacting the second quarter, affecting margins unfavorably by approximately 40 basis points in the Long-Term Care segment.
Challenges in Managed Services Segment
Revenue and NOI in the Managed Services segment declined, reflecting the loss of management fees due to the sale of 30 homes by Revera, with 9 of those homes acquired by Extendicare.
Company Guidance
During Extendicare Inc.'s second quarter 2025 conference call, the company provided guidance reflecting strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 3% to $39.8 million compared to the prior year, with a significant 15.4% rise when excluding out-of-period items, largely driven by a 10.9% increase in average daily volumes in the home health care segment. The company reported a net operating income (NOI) margin improvement of 90 basis points to 13.5%, attributed to efficient capital allocation and scalable back-office operations. Extendicare highlighted notable acquisitions, including the purchase of nine long-term care homes from Revera, adding 822 beds with an expected annualized NOI contribution of $13 million. Additionally, the acquisition of Closing the Gap for $75.1 million is anticipated to contribute $9.8 million in annualized NOI. The company's available liquidity position was strengthened with an increase in its senior secured credit facility by $100 million, maintaining a favorable position for future strategic acquisitions. Moreover, Extendicare mentioned ongoing redevelopment projects and a new capital funding policy by the Ontario government, which provides greater funding flexibility for long-term care home construction. These efforts align with Extendicare's commitment to expanding long-term care capacity in response to demographic demand, while maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 46% and an AFFO increase of 23.1% year-over-year to $0.29 per share.

Extendicare Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Extendicare demonstrates solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and strong operational margins. The company effectively generates returns on equity, but the high leverage poses potential risks. Cash flow metrics are positive, reflecting good cash management. Overall, Extendicare is in a stable financial position with opportunities to enhance profitability and reduce leverage.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Extendicare has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 2.37%. The company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 77.05% in the TTM period, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 5.23%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting solid operational performance.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.29 in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. However, the return on equity is strong at 65.66%, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Extendicare's cash flow performance is robust, with a positive free cash flow growth rate of 5.79% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44, indicating that operating cash flows are adequately covering net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.61 suggests efficient cash conversion from profits.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.51B1.47B1.30B1.22B1.17B1.10B
Gross Profit1.16B168.00M167.62M76.83M115.61M201.16M
EBITDA165.43M155.27M98.63M48.90M67.46M125.08M
Net Income83.18M75.21M33.98M69.55M11.50M54.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets777.83M719.79M672.73M781.58M900.32M963.13M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments72.61M121.85M75.91M167.28M104.63M179.96M
Total Debt284.12M292.49M334.52M383.97M536.85M564.60M
Total Liabilities628.92M595.44M584.81M680.88M798.40M834.94M
Stockholders Equity148.91M124.35M87.92M100.70M101.92M128.19M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow78.93M101.69M-106.13M-2.76M-6.10M88.17M
Operating Cash Flow131.43M143.64M23.28M98.87M59.08M121.27M
Investing Cash Flow-105.66M-9.11M-84.45M155.64M-59.39M2.00M
Financing Cash Flow-89.56M-87.87M-30.93M-191.86M-74.84M-38.16M

Extendicare Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price16.06
Price Trends
50DMA
14.26
Positive
100DMA
13.73
Positive
200DMA
13.09
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.50
Negative
RSI
70.64
Negative
STOCH
66.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:EXE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.34, above the 50-day MA of 14.26, and above the 200-day MA of 13.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.64 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:EXE.

Extendicare Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
C$1.36B16.4665.09%3.19%8.68%39.93%
C$267.45M2.1241.13%2.49%-35.35%948.72%
C$1.82B49.456.94%4.89%10.13%1.30%
C$223.39M-2.17%0.56%-0.16%75.25%
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
C$1.26B-14.61%20.36%-186.10%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:EXE
Extendicare
16.06
7.29
83.12%
TSE:CRRX
CareRx
3.59
1.66
86.01%
TSE:SIA
Sienna Senior Living
19.14
3.04
18.88%
TSE:DR
Medical Facilities
14.45
0.22
1.54%
TSE:WELL
WELL Health Technologies Corp
5.25
0.85
19.32%

Extendicare Corporate Events

Dividends
Extendicare Declares October 2025 Dividend
Positive
Oct 15, 2025

Extendicare Inc. announced a cash dividend of C$0.042 per common share for October 2025, payable on November 17, 2025, to shareholders of record as of October 31, 2025. This announcement reflects Extendicare’s ongoing commitment to providing shareholder value and maintaining its position as a key player in the senior care industry in Canada.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Buy with a C$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Extendicare Schedules Q3 2025 Financial Results Announcement and Conference Call
Neutral
Oct 7, 2025

Extendicare Inc. has announced the release of its third-quarter financial results for 2025, scheduled for November 11, with a subsequent conference call on November 12. This announcement is significant as it provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic positioning in the senior care industry, potentially impacting investor decisions and market perceptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Buy with a C$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Extendicare Declares September 2025 Dividend
Positive
Sep 15, 2025

Extendicare Inc. has announced a cash dividend of C$0.042 per common share for September 2025, payable on October 15, 2025, to shareholders on record as of September 30, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and maintaining its position as a key player in the senior care industry in Canada.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Hold with a C$14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

Extendicare Inc. Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Challenges
Aug 13, 2025

Extendicare Inc. recently held its earnings call, revealing a generally positive sentiment despite some challenges. The company reported strong growth in key areas like Adjusted EBITDA and home health care volumes, alongside successful acquisitions. However, it faced hurdles with revenue losses from closed Class C homes and a decline in Managed Services revenue. Overall, the positive developments and strategic acquisitions suggest a robust position for future growth.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Extendicare Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results and Strategic Acquisitions
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

Extendicare Inc. reported a 15.4% increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025, driven by growth in its home health care segment and improvements in long-term care, including the acquisition of nine Class C LTC homes. The company completed several strategic transactions, including the sale of three LTC projects and the acquisition of Closing the Gap, which is expected to enhance its service offerings and operational scale. These moves, along with increased credit facilities, position Extendicare for future growth and improved market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Hold with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2025