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Capstone Copper
(TSX:CS)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
C$18.00
▲(10.36% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is driven by improving financial performance and a very strong, guidance-reaffirming earnings call highlighting record results, deleveraging, and on-track growth projects. Offsetting factors are weaker cash-flow conversion (FCF modest vs earnings), higher leverage versus earlier-cycle levels, and only mixed technical signals with high volatility (beta 2.71). Valuation appears fair (P/E 17.29) with no dividend yield data to add support.
Positive Factors
Improving Earnings
Revenue and profitability have recovered materially, with TTM revenue up about 8% and net margin near 17%. Record second-quarter EBITDA reinforces earnings strength, providing a stronger base for funding mine development and absorbing normal copper-cycle variability.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Conversion
Positive free cash flow is an improvement, but conversion of only about 16% of net income shows that investment needs absorb much of reported profitability. Periodic historical cash burn could recur during heavy spending cycles, limiting internally funded growth and financial flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving Earnings
Revenue and profitability have recovered materially, with TTM revenue up about 8% and net margin near 17%. Record second-quarter EBITDA reinforces earnings strength, providing a stronger base for funding mine development and absorbing normal copper-cycle variability.
Read all positive factors
Capstone Copper (CS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$11.01B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.9
Beta (1Y)2.64
Revenue Growth36.25%
EPS Growth524.95%
CountryCA
Employees1,049
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.61
Shares Outstanding765,984,560
10 Day Avg. Volume3,118,998
30 Day Avg. Volume3,063,667
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)2.26
Price to Sales (P/S)3.19
P/FCF Ratio111.88
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$18.59Price Target Upside13.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.92B
Capstone Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Capstone Copper Corp. specializes in copper mining, with its operations primarily concentrated across the Americas. Its asset base includes the Pinto Valley copper mine located in Arizona, USA, and the Cozamin copper-silver mine situated in Zacate...
How the Company Makes Money
Capstone Copper makes money primarily by selling copper-bearing products produced from its mining operations. The core revenue stream is the sale of copper concentrate and/or copper cathode to smelters, refiners, and other metal buyers, with reali...
Capstone Copper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong positive momentum: record earnings, improving leverage and liquidity, operational gains (notably at Mantoverde), disciplined cost and hedging actions, and on‑schedule high-return growth projects. Challenges were present — mainly elevated sulfuric acid and diesel prices, localized operational issues at Pinto Valley and temporary cathode curtailment at Mantoverde, and remaining execution/financing risks for Santo Domingo — but management presented clear mitigation plans and maintained 2026 guidance. Overall, the positives (record financials, deleveraging, project optionality, and labor/sustainability progress) materially outweigh the manageable operational and commodity-input headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance
Record adjusted EBITDA of $354 million in Q2 2026 (up 8% quarter-over-quarter and 64% year-over-year) and record adjusted net income attributable to shareholders of $97.6 million ($0.13 per share). LME copper averaged $6.50/lb in Q2 (up 4% vs Q1) with realized price of $6.22/lb, yielding gross margins of $3.40/lb (55%).
Negative Updates
Sulfuric Acid Market Pressure and Operational Adjustments
Spot sulfuric acid prices elevated (~$450/ton) versus fixed protection (~$190/ton) for most of the year. Management temporarily paused higher-acid-consuming heap leach oxide processing, reducing cathode production by ~5 kt and avoiding purchase of ~200 kt of acid at spot; acid market remains a material input risk for 2027 if prices remain elevated.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Performance
Record adjusted EBITDA of $354 million in Q2 2026 (up 8% quarter-over-quarter and 64% year-over-year) and record adjusted net income attributable to shareholders of $97.6 million ($0.13 per share). LME copper averaged $6.50/lb in Q2 (up 4% vs Q1) with realized price of $6.22/lb, yielding gross margins of $3.40/lb (55%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 consolidated production, cost and CapEx guidance and expects stronger H2 driven by higher sulfide grades and throughput at Mantoverde and the on‑schedule/on‑budget MDO; key metrics cited include Q2 consolidated copper ~51.1–51.8 kt, consolidated C1 cash cost $2.82/lb, realized copper $6.22/lb (LME avg $6.50/lb), gross margin $3.40/lb (55%), adjusted EBITDA $354M (+8% q/q, +64% y/y) and adjusted net income $97.6M ($0.13/sh), with net debt $675M (down $63M q/q, >$100M YTD), liquidity >$1B (cash $367M + $715M undrawn RCF) and net debt/EBITDA 0.5x; Mantoverde Optimize tie‑ins complete in Sept with ramp in Q4 and sustained sulfide throughput ~45 ktpd expected early 2027 (Q2 Mantoverde: 22.5 kt Cu, C1 $1.97/lb, 36.3 ktpd throughput, 90.2% recovery, 0.61% grade), hedges in H2 include 40% Chilean diesel at $0.82/L and 50% Pinto Valley diesel at $0.93/L, a temporary ~5 kt reduction in cathode to avoid ~200 kt of spot acid purchases (reducing Mantoverde acid use from ~600 kt to ~400 kt/year), ~80% of asset consumption fixed at ~$190/t vs spot $450–470/t, and the Mantoverde pyrite augmentation (CapEx ~$45M in 2027, completion early 2028) is expected to cut acid needs ~20%, add ~3.5 kt Cu/yr and deliver NPV ~$200–350M (NPV/CapEx ~4–7x); with Santo Domingo sanction expected in Q4, the company forecasts an EBITDA run‑rate near $3B and ~70% production growth vs 2025 once MDO and Santo Domingo reach full rates.Capstone Copper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.67B | 2.40B | 1.60B | 1.35B | 1.30B | 794.77M |
| Gross Profit | 950.95M | 548.67M | 522.46M | 319.36M | 381.86M | 452.37M |
| EBITDA | 1.38B | 1.12B | 353.40M | 184.33M | 334.97M | 434.28M |
| Net Income | 471.41M | 321.40M | 82.91M | -101.67M | 122.20M | 226.83M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.30B | 7.18B | 6.36B | 5.83B | 5.43B | 1.71B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 367.07M | 303.64M | 132.27M | 125.91M | 173.55M | 261.87M |
| Total Debt | 1.49B | 1.54B | 1.32B | 1.36B | 811.22M | 15.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.25B | 3.36B | 2.90B | 2.79B | 2.22B | 704.84M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.57B | 3.38B | 3.05B | 2.64B | 2.78B | 1.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 131.73M | 68.38M | -133.88M | -577.25M | -488.34M | 409.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 756.64M | 596.57M | 292.64M | 49.48M | 54.75M | 540.59M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -658.10M | -563.39M | -425.08M | -621.66M | -337.00M | -158.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -45.70M | 141.73M | 139.87M | 523.41M | 193.79M | -180.53M |
Capstone Copper Technical Analysis
Neutral
16.31
Price Trends
14.36
Positive
13.84
Positive
13.48
Positive
Market Momentum
0.12
Positive
42.69
Neutral
25.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 16.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.58, above the 50-day MA of 14.36, and above the 200-day MA of 13.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:CS.
Capstone Copper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | C$16.31B | 15.69 | 18.43% | 0.08% | 13.43% | 129.98% | |
78 Outperform | C$28.62B | 13.63 | 22.97% | 0.33% | 28.67% | ― | |
73 Outperform | C$5.13B | 11.90 | 30.09% | ― | 93.28% | 113.62% | |
72 Outperform | C$11.01B | 16.86 | 13.69% | ― | 36.25% | 524.95% | |
63 Neutral | C$4.10B | 981.50 | 1.33% | ― | 68.28% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | C$36.66B | -296.43 | -0.73% | 0.63% | 15.02% | -140.36% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
14.37
3.93
37.64%
TSE:HBM
Hudbay Minerals
36.73
17.63
92.27%
TSE:TKO
Trekor Metals
11.21
6.19
123.31%
TSE:LUN
Lundin Mining
33.45
16.77
100.50%
TSE:ERO
Ero Copper
49.17
25.63
108.88%
TSE:FM
First Quantum Minerals
43.94
17.20
64.32%
Capstone Copper Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Capstone Copper Expands Atacama Footprint With San Pietro Acquisition
Positive
Aug 31, 2026
Capstone Copper has completed the acquisition of the San Pietro copper-gold-iron-cobalt project concessions in Chile’s Atacama Region for $25 million in shares, adding about 16,000 hectares and an NI 43-101 Inferred Mineral Resource of 492 m...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.