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Chorus Aviation
(TSX:CHR)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
C$32.00
▲(12.16% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial quality (stronger free cash flow and lower leverage) and a constructive earnings update with reaffirmed guidance and meaningful cash generation. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E. Technicals are positive but tempered by overbought momentum indicators, and financial results still show margin compression and historical earnings volatility.
Positive Factors
Stronger Cash Flow and Lower Leverage
Improved cash conversion and materially lower leverage strengthen financial flexibility. This provides more capacity to fund aircraft investments, repay debt, support dividends and buybacks, and absorb operating volatility over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
CPA Contractual Step-Downs
Lower CPA economics can structurally pressure revenue mix and fixed-margin contribution from the core regional flying business. Growth from Voyager and Kadex may offset some impact, but contract repricing remains a continuing earnings headwind.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stronger Cash Flow and Lower Leverage
Improved cash conversion and materially lower leverage strengthen financial flexibility. This provides more capacity to fund aircraft investments, repay debt, support dividends and buybacks, and absorb operating volatility over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Chorus Aviation (CHR) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$631.52M
Dividend Yield1.36%
Average Volume (3M)72.66K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.0
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth-3.60%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees4,255
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.00
Shares Outstanding22,570,404
10 Day Avg. Volume44,371
30 Day Avg. Volume72,661
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio19.86
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$36.55Price Target Upside28.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)2.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.31B
Chorus Aviation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Chorus Aviation Inc. delivers a broad spectrum of aviation support functionalities across the United States and Canada. The company's operations are divided into two primary divisions: Regional Aviation Services and Regional Aircraft Leasing. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Chorus Aviation has primarily generated revenue through contracted flying arrangements and aviation asset-related income. (1) Contracted regional airline services: Under capacity purchase agreements (CPAs), Chorus (through its regional airline ope...
Chorus Aviation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights strong cash generation, an accretive acquisition (Kadex) that is exceeding expectations, disciplined capital allocation with active buybacks and dividends, improved leverage (1.5x) and solid liquidity ($204M). Operational milestones across Jazz, Voyager, Kadex, Falko/Elisen, and Cygnet show strategic progress and diversification into defense, ISR, and RPAS. Offsetting these positives are contractual CPA step-downs, timing-related delays on the last two aircraft sales, and the inherently lumpy nature of parts and defense contract revenue which led management to maintain conservative guidance for the back half. Overall, positives materially outweigh the challenges, but some back-half timing and revenue volatility risks remain.Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow and Aircraft Monetization
Generated $118 million of combined free cash flow and aircraft sale proceeds in H1 2026, including $72.6 million in Q2 (comprised of $32.3M free cash flow and $40.4M aircraft sale proceeds). Q2 free cash flow was $32.3M ($1.41 per share). Sales produced a $2.5M gain in the quarter.
Negative Updates
CPA Contractual Step-Downs
Contractual step-downs in the capacity purchase agreement (CPA) reduced fixed margin and leasing revenue; although Voyager and Kadex largely offset the impact, the CPA step-downs remain a headwind to revenue mix and were explicitly noted as a swing factor.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Free Cash Flow and Aircraft Monetization
Generated $118 million of combined free cash flow and aircraft sale proceeds in H1 2026, including $72.6 million in Q2 (comprised of $32.3M free cash flow and $40.4M aircraft sale proceeds). Q2 free cash flow was $32.3M ($1.41 per share). Sales produced a $2.5M gain in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Chorus reaffirmed its full‑year guidance and said Q2 results have it trending toward the high end of the range: Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $50.7M, adjusted net income per share $0.83 (up 54% y/y), free cash flow $32.3M ($1.41/share) and H1 free cash flow plus aircraft sale proceeds totaled $118M; adjusted net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.5x (from 1.7x), with $204M liquidity. Kadex contributed Q2 revenue of $16.4M and $1.2M of net income (incl. $0.5M amortization); aircraft monetization is on track with 7 of 9 Dash‑8‑400s sold (Q2 proceeds $40.4M, $58.4M H1) toward estimated total net proceeds of ≈$414.4M and two remaining closings expected by Q4 (≈$14.4M). Capital allocation activity included Q2 buybacks of ~$14.8M (617k shares), $20M YTD (845k), a maintained quarterly dividend of $0.11, and a framework targeting up to $100M in buybacks, $40M in dividends, $190M of term‑loan repayments and $170–220M of flexible capital.Chorus Aviation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.32B | 1.32B | 1.40B | 1.40B | 1.60B | 1.02B |
| Gross Profit | 170.85M | 264.86M | 270.89M | 337.13M | 423.40M | 205.63M |
| EBITDA | 191.03M | 223.53M | 165.54M | 271.36M | 360.85M | 270.46M |
| Net Income | 48.19M | 78.74M | -158.50M | 101.35M | 48.89M | -20.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.26B | 1.31B | 1.61B | 3.85B | 4.06B | 3.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 26.77M | 28.66M | 222.22M | 88.83M | 100.03M | 123.57M |
| Total Debt | 307.86M | 374.16M | 516.38M | 1.76B | 2.03B | 1.91B |
| Total Liabilities | 757.46M | 802.61M | 1.10B | 2.57B | 2.79B | 2.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 506.02M | 507.84M | 511.95M | 1.19B | 1.18B | 690.47M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 122.14M | 27.86M | 212.13M | 256.51M | 217.23M | 110.26M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 164.85M | 62.75M | 265.02M | 299.68M | 279.51M | 184.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.87M | -28.04M | 818.67M | 37.56M | -231.37M | -45.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -178.42M | -225.49M | -1.06B | -325.55M | -71.46M | -180.93M |
Chorus Aviation Technical Analysis
Positive
28.53
Price Trends
26.47
Positive
25.21
Positive
23.62
Positive
Market Momentum
0.35
Positive
51.00
Neutral
18.54
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CHR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.01, above the 50-day MA of 26.47, and above the 200-day MA of 23.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CHR.
Chorus Aviation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | C$631.52M | 13.99 | 9.32% | 1.36% | -3.60% | ― | |
69 Neutral | C$1.17B | 25.64 | 6.30% | 1.86% | 0.80% | -66.47% | |
66 Neutral | C$6.79B | 31.95 | 11.69% | 2.28% | 33.11% | 40.81% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | C$8.04B | 20.23 | 16.92% | ― | 5.63% | -65.53% | |
60 Neutral | C$1.88B | 31.33 | 7.11% | 0.61% | 15.36% | 57.18% | |
47 Neutral | C$69.11M | -15.54 | 8.11% | ― | 5.66% | 50.33% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:CHR
Chorus Aviation
27.98
8.15
41.11%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.