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Algoma Steel Group
(TSX:ASTL)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
C$7.00
▲(21.11% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/29/26
The score is held back primarily by weak recent financial performance (large losses, higher leverage, and negative operating/free cash flow). Offsetting factors include improving technical momentum and an earnings-call outlook that signals near-term shipment and EBITDA improvement alongside solid liquidity, while valuation support is limited due to loss-driven negative earnings.
Positive Factors
EAF Transformation
EAF Unit Two's commercial start marks a major structural step in Algoma's modernization. As the combined platform ramps, management expects higher production and a lasting cost and carbon advantage, which could improve competitiveness across steel market cycles.
Negative Factors
Severe Profitability Deterioration
The sharp loss and negative margins show that Algoma currently lacks durable earnings coverage through the downturn. Until volumes, utilization, and cost absorption improve, profitability remains vulnerable and internal funding for operations or investment is constrained.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
EAF Transformation
EAF Unit Two's commercial start marks a major structural step in Algoma's modernization. As the combined platform ramps, management expects higher production and a lasting cost and carbon advantage, which could improve competitiveness across steel market cycles.
Read all positive factors
Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$704.76M
Dividend Yield1%
Average Volume (3M)516.68K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.95
Revenue Growth-42.87%
EPS Growth-10.45%
CountryCA
Employees2,400
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-9.19
Shares Outstanding105,661,470
10 Day Avg. Volume802,614
30 Day Avg. Volume516,682
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.29
P/FCF Ratio-1.56
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$8.50Price Target Upside47.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.13B
Algoma Steel Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a North American producer and vendor of various steel products. The company supplies an array of flat and sheet steel materials, including temper rolled, cold rolled, hot-rolled pickled and oiled, floor plate, and cut-to...
How the Company Makes Money
Algoma Steel makes money by producing and selling steel products to industrial customers, with revenue primarily driven by the volume of steel shipped and the realized selling price per ton (or per unit) across its product mix. Its key revenue str...
Algoma Steel Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 17, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented meaningful operational progress, including restored power, commercial production from EAF Unit Two, improving underlying EBITDA, strong plate pricing, healthy Canadian demand and approximately $428 million of available liquidity. However, the company remained loss-making, shipments and revenue were substantially below the prior year, costs per ton were elevated, the 50% U.S. tariff remained in place and the EAF ramp still involved higher-than-target costs and ongoing legal matters. The positive operational trajectory was balanced by significant current-period financial and transition challenges.Positive Updates
Safety and Execution Through a Demanding Quarter
Management said teams restarted the melt shop after a power disruption, commissioned a replacement turbine at Lake Superior Power, brought EAF Unit Two to first arc, and sent every employee home safely every day.
Negative Updates
Shipments Fell Sharply During the Transition
Shipments were approximately 144,500 tons, down from 419,000 tons in the prior-year quarter and 181,000 tons in the second quarter. The decline reflected the accelerated transition to EAF-only steelmaking, the impact of U.S. Section 232 tariffs on export sales and the Lake Superior Power outage.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Safety and Execution Through a Demanding Quarter
Management said teams restarted the melt shop after a power disruption, commissioned a replacement turbine at Lake Superior Power, brought EAF Unit Two to first arc, and sent every employee home safely every day.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the fourth quarter, shipments are expected to increase by approximately 25% to 35% versus the third quarter, with volumes weighted towards November and December as the second EAF unit ramps, and the company expects a substantial improvement in underlying EBITDA performance, excluding any benefit of the capacity utilization adjustment, with no add-back to EBITDA expected in Q4. Coil sales are expected to increase through the fourth quarter and into 2027. For next year, production could be around 1.2 million tons on average, with production by end of the year expected to be at an average of anywhere from 1.5 million to 1.6 million tons by end of the year; the platform could be as high as 1.8 million, 1.9 million tons run rate, although it is difficult to say right now how soon. Through the ramp-up, costs are expected to be directionally higher from 220 or 225, with greater capacity expected early '28, while the replacement turbine has an all-in cost of approximately USD 35 million, with the balance expected to be financed over a 4-year period.Algoma Steel Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2026 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.09B | 2.09B | 2.45B | 2.78B | 3.81B | 1.79B |
| Gross Profit | -665.00M | -664.80M | -162.40M | 389.80M | 1.51B | 157.20M |
| EBITDA | -814.70M | -859.60M | -72.80M | 485.70M | 1.29B | 79.60M |
| Net Income | -984.90M | -984.90M | -222.67M | 298.50M | 857.70M | -76.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.12B | 2.12B | 3.19B | 2.46B | 2.69B | 1.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 77.60M | 77.50M | 267.00M | 247.40M | 915.30M | 21.20M |
| Total Debt | 916.90M | 862.00M | 659.60M | 122.30M | 96.20M | 629.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 0.00 | 1.62B | 1.68B | 993.40M | 1.11B | 1.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 491.10M | 491.10M | 1.51B | 1.46B | 1.58B | 173.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -361.20M | -394.60M | -362.70M | -156.20M | 1.10B | -63.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -63.10M | -66.10M | -62.60M | 177.30M | 1.26B | 8.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -282.61M | -312.30M | -272.20M | -333.50M | -165.70M | -72.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 93.42M | 200.80M | 483.70M | -569.60M | -198.70M | -167.40M |
Algoma Steel Group Technical Analysis
Positive
5.78
Price Trends
6.10
Positive
5.99
Positive
6.16
Positive
Market Momentum
0.21
Negative
66.97
Neutral
85.71
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ASTL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.24, below the 50-day MA of 6.10, and below the 200-day MA of 6.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.71 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ASTL.
Algoma Steel Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$1.28B | 16.50 | 12.04% | 6.26% | -15.44% | -32.07% | |
70 Outperform | C$317.65M | 6.41 | 13.52% | 6.80% | -1.45% | 220.30% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | C$899.03M | -2.03 | -30.64% | 6.38% | -7.37% | -92.84% | |
56 Neutral | C$1.13B | 5,163.35 | 0.21% | 1.63% | 23.69% | ― | |
53 Neutral | C$704.76M | -0.95 | -225.44% | 1.00% | -42.87% | -10.45% | |
47 Neutral | C$61.96M | -9.04 | -6.25% | 2.50% | -17.61% | -35.19% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:ASTL
Algoma Steel Group
6.67
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13.82%
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Algoma Steel Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Algoma Steel Narrows EBITDA Loss as EAF Transition Reaches Key Milestones
Positive
Oct 28, 2026
Algoma Steel Group reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $249.4 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $13.9 million, a marked improvement in margin versus the prior year despite sharply lower shipments amid its transition to electric arc furnace...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Algoma Steel Sets Date for Q3 Results as It Advances Low-Carbon Transition
Positive
Oct 15, 2026
Algoma Steel Group Inc. will release its 2026 third quarter financial results after markets close on October 28, 2026, followed by a webcast and conference call on October 29 to review performance, discuss recent developments, and take questions f...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Algoma Steel Flags Q3 Loss but Restored Power and EAF Progress Bolster Transformation
Negative
Oct 1, 2026
Algoma Steel Group issued third-quarter 2026 guidance, projecting steel shipments of about 145,000 tons and an Adjusted EBITDA loss between $10 million and $20 million, even after a sizeable capacity utilization adjustment. The company said result...
Business Operations and Strategy
Algoma Steel Restores EAF Output Under Interim Power Arrangements After LSP Outage
Positive
Sep 2, 2026
Algoma Steel Group has provided an operational update following the unplanned outage at its Lake Superior Power generating facility, which had affected its electric arc furnace operations. Working with the Independent Electricity System Operator, ...
Business Operations and Strategy
Algoma Steel Halts Electric Arc Furnace After Lake Superior Power Turbine Outage
Negative
Aug 18, 2026
Algoma Steel Group has reported an unplanned outage at its Lake Superior Power generating facility after one turbine unit detected an abnormal condition and went offline, although the remaining units are unaffected. As LSP supplies electricity to ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.