Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $611.76M
• Dividend Yield: 5.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.42
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 2,818
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): -4.46
• Shares Outstanding: 104,933,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,435,079
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,099,421
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.62
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -9.15
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -85.02
• 1Y Price Target: $8.48
• Price Target Upside: 57.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: C$5.00 ▼(-7.24% Downside)

Algoma Steel Group's overall stock score is driven by significant financial challenges and bearish technical indicators. The company's negative profitability and declining revenue weigh heavily on its financial performance. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, with the stock trading below key moving averages. While the dividend yield offers some appeal, the negative P/E ratio reflects current unprofitability. The earnings call highlights both challenges and positive developments, but these are not enough to offset the overall negative outlook.

Positive Factors

Electric Arc Furnace Project

The EAF project represents a strategic shift towards more sustainable steel production, potentially reducing costs and enhancing competitiveness.

Strong Liquidity Position

A strong liquidity position provides financial flexibility to navigate market challenges and invest in strategic initiatives like the EAF project.

Plate Shipments Increase

Increasing plate shipments indicate a growing demand in certain segments, suggesting potential for revenue growth in these areas.

Negative Factors

Decline in Steel Revenue

Declining revenue reflects challenges in pricing and demand, impacting profitability and long-term growth prospects.

Adjusted EBITDA Loss

EBITDA losses highlight operational inefficiencies and cost pressures, which could hinder future profitability and investment capacity.

CEO Retirement

Leadership changes can create uncertainty and disrupt strategic continuity, potentially affecting long-term business execution.

Algoma Steel Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products primarily in North America. It provides flat/sheet steel products, including temper rolling, cold rolled, hot-rolled pickled and oiled products, floor plate, and cut-to-length products for the automotive industry, hollow structural product manufacturers, and the light manufacturing and transportation industries; and plate steel products that consist of rolled, hot-rolled, and heat-treated for use in the construction or manufacture of railcars, buildings, bridges, off-highway equipment, storage tanks, ships, and military applications. Algoma Steel Group Inc. was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Sault Ste. Marie, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Algoma Steel generates revenue primarily through the sale of its steel products, which are sold to various industries including automotive, construction, and energy. The company operates on a business model that includes both direct sales to large manufacturers and distribution through third-party channels. Key revenue streams include the production of flat-rolled steel products, as well as value-added services such as steel processing and finishing. Algoma Steel may also engage in long-term contracts with major clients, ensuring stable revenue. Additionally, partnerships with industry players and participation in government contracts for infrastructure projects can further enhance earnings potential.

Algoma Steel Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Algoma Steel Group faces significant financial challenges, with negative profitability metrics and declining revenue. The balance sheet remains relatively stable, with a manageable debt level, but profitability needs improvement to enhance financial health. Cash flow constraints due to high capital expenditures pose risks to future growth.

Income Statement

Algoma Steel Group's income statement reveals a challenging financial situation. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is negative, indicating the cost of goods sold exceeds revenue. The net profit margin is also negative, highlighting the company's struggle to achieve profitability. Revenue has declined significantly from previous periods, showing a negative growth trajectory. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Despite these setbacks, the historical data shows the company was profitable in 2022, suggesting potential for recovery if operational issues are addressed.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Algoma Steel Group presents a mixed picture. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively moderate, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. However, the return on equity (ROE) is negative in TTM, showing a decline in profitability. The equity ratio remains stable, indicating solid capital structure. While the company has a considerable amount of total assets, the decline in cash reserves is a concern. Overall, the company maintains a stable equity base but needs to enhance profitability to improve ROE.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis for Algoma Steel Group shows some strengths and weaknesses. The TTM operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating operational cash generation despite net losses. However, free cash flow is negative, primarily due to high capital expenditures. This limits the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities without additional financing. Although the past cash flow was strong in 2022, recent trends highlight the need for more effective cash management to ensure sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.77B	2.45B	2.80B	2.78B	3.81B	1.79B
Gross Profit	-139.30M	-162.40M	282.30M	389.80M	1.51B	157.20M
EBITDA	-15.00M	-72.80M	281.70M	489.30M	1.29B	171.90M
Net Income	-125.00M	-222.67M	105.20M	298.50M	857.70M	-76.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.09B	3.19B	2.68B	2.46B	2.69B	1.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	226.50M	267.00M	97.90M	247.40M	915.30M	21.20M
Total Debt	654.50M	659.60M	146.10M	122.30M	96.20M	629.40M
Total Liabilities	1.61B	1.68B	1.17B	993.40M	1.11B	1.38B
Stockholders Equity	1.48B	1.51B	1.50B	1.46B	1.58B	173.80M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-184.70M	-362.70M	-195.50M	-156.20M	1.10B	-63.70M
Operating Cash Flow	130.00M	-62.60M	294.60M	177.30M	1.26B	8.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-286.80M	-272.20M	-490.10M	-333.50M	-165.70M	-72.90M
Financing Cash Flow	475.60M	483.70M	44.70M	-569.60M	-198.70M	-167.40M

Algoma Steel Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.39
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ASTL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.79, below the 50-day MA of 5.88, and below the 200-day MA of 7.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:ASTL.

Algoma Steel Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LIF	78 Outperform	C$1.85B	16.27	16.92%	6.72%	-10.99%	-43.30%
VNP	73 Outperform	C$1.73B	28.28	26.65%	―	30.36%	181.15%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TKO	56 Neutral	$2.21B	―	-5.19%	―	0.10%	-135.33%
TSL	54 Neutral	C$71.00M	-14.12	-4.19%	2.72%	-10.54%	-517.42%
ASTL	49 Neutral	$611.76M	-0.92	-59.32%	5.18%	―	―
ABRA	41 Neutral	$1.11B	―	-79.33%	―	―	-193.85%

Algoma Steel Group Corporate Events

Algoma Steel Announces Leadership Transition with New CEO and CFO Appointments

Algoma Steel Group Inc. has announced a leadership transition as part of its succession planning. Current CFO Rajat Marwah will succeed Michael Garcia as CEO effective January 1, 2026, while Michael Moraca will be promoted to CFO. This transition comes at a pivotal time for Algoma, which has recently secured liquidity support from federal and provincial governments and begun producing steel at its Electric Arc Furnace. The leadership change is expected to ensure stability and continuity as the company continues its transformation into a low-carbon steel producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ASTL) stock is a Hold with a C$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Algoma Steel Group stock, see the TSE:ASTL Stock Forecast page.

Algoma Steel Group Faces Challenges Amidst Strategic Transition

Algoma Steel Group reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a significant net loss of $485.1 million, primarily due to a non-cash impairment loss and trade-related challenges, including U.S. tariffs. Despite these challenges, Algoma is advancing its transition to electric arc furnace technology, supported by $500 million in government liquidity, to strengthen its financial position and pursue sustainable profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ASTL) stock is a Hold with a C$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Algoma Steel Group stock, see the TSE:ASTL Stock Forecast page.

Algoma Steel to Release Q3 2025 Financial Results

On October 20, 2025, Algoma Steel Group Inc. announced that it will release its third quarter financial results for 2025 on October 29, 2025. A webcast and conference call are scheduled for October 30, 2025, to discuss the results and recent events. This announcement is part of Algoma’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparency with stakeholders and reinforce its position as a key player in the North American steel industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ASTL) stock is a Hold with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Algoma Steel Group stock, see the TSE:ASTL Stock Forecast page.

Algoma Steel Announces Q3 Guidance and Board Changes

On October 1, 2025, Algoma Steel Group Inc. provided guidance for its third quarter of 2025, projecting total steel shipments of approximately 415,000 to 420,000 net tons and an expected negative Adjusted EBITDA of $80 million to $90 million. Despite trade challenges, the company achieved significant progress in its transition to low-carbon steelmaking with its electric arc furnace, supported by federal and provincial financial aid. In a separate announcement, David Sgro resigned from the board of directors for personal reasons, with the board acknowledging his contributions to the company’s transformation and strategic vision.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ASTL) stock is a Buy with a C$10.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Algoma Steel Group stock, see the TSE:ASTL Stock Forecast page.

Algoma Steel Secures C$500 Million Support Amid U.S. Tariffs

On September 29, 2025, Algoma Steel Group Inc. announced securing C$500 million in liquidity support from the Canadian and Ontario governments to navigate trade uncertainties and advance its business transformation. The funding comes amid the imposition of a 50% tariff on Canadian steel by the U.S., which has closed the U.S. market to Canadian steelmakers. Algoma plans to exit its blast furnace and coke ovens operations, transitioning to Electric Arc Furnace steelmaking, focusing on products for the Canadian market. This strategic shift aims to align with market realities and reinforce Algoma’s role in supporting Canada’s industrial and economic priorities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ASTL) stock is a Buy with a C$13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Algoma Steel Group stock, see the TSE:ASTL Stock Forecast page.

Algoma Steel Expands Credit Facility Amid Market Challenges

On September 18, 2025, Algoma Steel Group Inc. announced an increase in its asset-based revolving credit facility from US$300 million to US$375 million, with the additional funding provided by Export Development Canada. This move is part of Algoma’s broader liquidity initiatives aimed at strengthening its financial position amidst challenging market conditions, including tariffs. The expansion of the credit facility reflects confidence in Algoma’s strategic shift towards Electric Arc Furnace steelmaking and its long-term competitiveness as a sustainable steel producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ASTL) stock is a Buy with a C$13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Algoma Steel Group stock, see the TSE:ASTL Stock Forecast page.