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Aris Mining
(TSX:ARIS)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
C$22.00
▼(-23.10% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:10/31/26
The score is driven by solid financial momentum (higher revenue, stronger margins, improved leverage) and a constructive earnings-call backdrop with reiterated production guidance and cash generation funding growth capex. These positives are partially offset by weak technicals (downtrend across major moving averages and negative MACD) and less consistent free-cash-flow conversion alongside project execution/funding risks at Marmato and near-term throughput constraints at Segovia.
Positive Factors
Profitability and scale expansion
The sharp improvement in revenue, margins, and net income shows meaningful operating leverage as the business scales. If production and processing performance remain stable, stronger profitability can support reinvestment, improve resilience, and expand internally funded growth capacity over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent free-cash-flow conversion
Cash generation is positive but materially weaker than earnings, with recent free-cash-flow decline and a history of negative periods. Continued reinvestment needs and capital-spending swings may limit discretionary cash, making reported profit less reliable as a measure of funds available for expansion or balance-sheet strengthening.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability and scale expansion
The sharp improvement in revenue, margins, and net income shows meaningful operating leverage as the business scales. If production and processing performance remain stable, stronger profitability can support reinvestment, improve resilience, and expand internally funded growth capacity over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Aris Mining (ARIS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.15B
Dividend Yield0.85%
Average Volume (3M)632.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.5
Beta (1Y)2.46
Revenue Growth94.26%
EPS Growth3705.15%
CountryCA
Employees3,578
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.37
Shares Outstanding206,400,000
10 Day Avg. Volume678,856
30 Day Avg. Volume632,385
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.21
Price to Book (P/B)2.12
Price to Sales (P/S)3.24
P/FCF Ratio44.11
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$38.67Price Target Upside35.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.46B
Aris Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aris Mining Corporation, along with its associated entities, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and silver mining ventures, predominantly within Colombia. In Colombia, the company possesses stakes in the Se...
How the Company Makes Money
Aris Mining primarily makes money by producing and selling gold. Its main revenue stream is the sale of gold produced from its mining operations; revenue is generally driven by (i) the volume of gold ounces produced and sold, (ii) the realized gol...
Aris Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes strong operational execution, robust cash generation and clear progress across producing assets and growth projects. Key metrics—Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $179M, Q2 production of 74,000 ounces, H1 operating cash flow of $200M, and continued project milestones at Marmato, Segovia and Toroparu—support a positive outlook. Material near-term items to monitor include Marmato's increased FY investment (~$238M vs $220M budget), the remaining funding requirement (~$76M net of financings), the Segovia shaft bottleneck (≈750 t/day) pending ramp relief in late Q3/Q4, and timing of large tax payments that drove a Q2 cash reduction. On balance, highlights and momentum materially outweigh the manageable execution and funding risks described.Positive Updates
Strong production in the quarter and first half
Consolidated Q2 gold production of 74,000 ounces and first-half production of 148,000 ounces (approximately 50% of the 2026 guidance midpoint). Company reiterates 2026 guidance of 300,000–350,000 ounces and trailing 12-month production is approaching ~300,000 ounces.
Negative Updates
Quarterly cash decline driven by taxes and capex
Cash fell from $472 million at the start of Q2 to $426 million at quarter-end (a decline of $46 million, ≈9.8%), primarily reflecting the timing of annual Colombian tax payments and heavy investment into Marmato and Segovia. Management indicated Q2 is typically the heaviest quarter for cash taxes and taxes are expected to rise with higher net income.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong production in the quarter and first half
Consolidated Q2 gold production of 74,000 ounces and first-half production of 148,000 ounces (approximately 50% of the 2026 guidance midpoint). Company reiterates 2026 guidance of 300,000–350,000 ounces and trailing 12-month production is approaching ~300,000 ounces.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated 2026 production guidance of 300,000–350,000 ounces, reporting Q2 production of 74,000 oz and H1 production of 148,000 oz (about 50% of the midpoint) with trailing‑12‑month production approaching 300,000 oz and a near‑term target of ~500,000 oz/year from Segovia plus Marmato; Marmato first gold is still targeted for Q4. Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $179M, H1 operating cash flow after taxes was $200M which essentially funded H1 capex of $196M, leaving quarter‑end cash of $426M (Q2 start $472M) and the company free‑cash‑flow positive; Segovia H1 capex was $48M. Segovia YTD owner‑mining AISC was $1,623/oz, YTD sales margin 43%, and combined all‑in sustaining contributions were $157M in Q2 and $356M in H1. Marmato has invested ~ $120M year‑to‑date, expects a further ~$118M through year‑end (total ~$238M vs $220M budget), has SAG and ball mills on site, estimates $180M cost‑to‑complete for commissioning with a net funding requirement of ~$76M and a final $42M Wheaton installment due in Q3; Toroparu PFS is on track for H2 completion with a construction decision targeted early 2027 and Soto Norte environmental studies ready for submission.Aris Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.26B | 943.90M | 510.60M | 447.67M | 399.96M | 382.61M |
| Gross Profit | 660.85M | 438.12M | 195.84M | 185.91M | 204.14M | 198.71M |
| EBITDA | 585.69M | 307.15M | 152.23M | 153.49M | 165.88M | 169.95M |
| Net Income | 282.61M | 79.72M | 24.58M | 11.42M | -4.86M | 186.23M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.82B | 2.52B | 1.99B | 1.35B | 1.24B | 998.38M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 424.86M | 391.16M | 252.53M | 194.62M | 299.46M | 323.56M |
| Total Debt | 505.01M | 524.55M | 520.57M | 382.93M | 422.88M | 318.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.06B | 1.07B | 911.40M | 728.22M | 740.75M | 519.86M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.76B | 1.44B | 798.57M | 624.65M | 495.89M | 478.53M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 118.37M | 69.30M | -40.21M | -9.02M | -38.05M | 17.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 430.19M | 317.48M | 141.24M | 104.70M | 76.95M | 80.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -312.77M | -236.34M | -198.77M | -180.28M | -54.58M | -229.72M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.13M | 57.99M | 121.29M | -33.33M | -39.32M | 359.67M |
Aris Mining Technical Analysis
Negative
28.61
Price Trends
25.65
Negative
23.78
Negative
24.91
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.04
Positive
31.19
Neutral
27.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ARIS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.52, above the 50-day MA of 25.65, and above the 200-day MA of 24.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:ARIS.
Aris Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$1.40B | 21.11 | 11.73% | ― | 63.57% | 227.78% | |
72 Outperform | C$1.03B | 15.91 | 18.43% | ― | 54.43% | 148.97% | |
68 Neutral | C$4.15B | 10.51 | 19.15% | 0.85% | 94.26% | 3705.15% | |
66 Neutral | C$602.53M | 53.41 | 4.79% | ― | 70.91% | -35.45% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
53 Neutral | C$2.98B | 31.62 | 10.49% | ― | 197.63% | ― | |
42 Neutral | C$1.62B | -23.53 | -104.74% | ― | ― | -40.34% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:ARIS
Aris Mining
20.11
6.23
44.88%
TSE:ASM
Avino Silver & Gold
6.07
-0.46
-7.04%
TSE:EDR
Endeavour Silver
10.05
-1.47
-12.76%
TSE:ITR
Integra Resources Corp
2.97
-0.94
-24.04%
TSE:GGD
GoGold Resources
3.23
0.67
26.17%
TSE:ABRA
AbraSilver Resource
10.05
3.48
52.97%
Aris Mining Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Aris Mining CEO Neil Woodyer Honoured by Canadian Mining Hall of Fame
Positive
Sep 29, 2026
Aris Mining has highlighted the induction of its Founder, Chair and CEO Neil Woodyer into the Canadian Mining Hall of Fame, underscoring his five-decade track record in mining finance, entrepreneurship and building gold producers across multiple j...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Aris Mining Cuts Seasif Stake in Portfolio Rebalancing Move
Neutral
Aug 5, 2026
Aris Mining has reduced its equity stake in Seasif Exploration, selling 15.5 million Seasif shares in a privately brokered transaction and cutting its ownership from roughly 20.4% to 9.8% of Seasif’s outstanding shares. The disposal, made fo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.