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Alvopetro Energy (TSE:ALV)
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Alvopetro Energy (ALV) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:ALV

Alvopetro Energy

(ALV)

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Outperform 78 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$7.50
▲(16.28% Upside)
Alvopetro Energy's stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and attractive valuation. The company's robust profitability, stable balance sheet, and high dividend yield are significant strengths. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to potential bearish momentum, and cash flow management challenges slightly temper the overall positive outlook.

Alvopetro Energy (ALV) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Alvopetro Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlvopetro Energy Ltd. is a Canadian-based oil and gas exploration and production company primarily focused on the development of hydrocarbons in Brazil. The company operates in the energy sector, specializing in the exploration, production, and sale of oil and natural gas. Alvopetro is committed to sustainable energy practices and aims to create value for its shareholders through efficient resource management and advanced technology in hydrocarbon extraction.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlvopetro Energy generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of oil and natural gas. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil and natural gas from its operational fields in Brazil. Alvopetro's financial performance is influenced by global oil and gas prices, production volumes, and operational efficiency. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its operational capabilities and reduce exploration risks, which can also contribute to its revenue. Factors such as market demand, regulatory environment, and technological advancements in extraction methodologies play a significant role in shaping Alvopetro's earnings.

Alvopetro Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong growth in production, reserve increases, and strategic expansion into new markets, demonstrating a positive outlook for 2025. While there were some financial challenges in Q4 2024, such as decreased operating netback and foreign exchange losses, the overall sentiment remains optimistic due to operational achievements and strategic initiatives.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Production Capacity
Alvopetro's January and February production averaged 2,375 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 37% from Q4 2024 production.
Dividend Increase
Announced an increase in the dividend for Q1 2025 to US$0.10 per share, reflecting a 12% yield at current share prices.
Significant Reserve Growth
Proved reserves increased by 65% and proved + probable reserves increased by 5% year-over-year.
Strong Operating Netback Margin
Despite a slight decrease, the operating netback remained high at 86%.
Debt-Free Status
Maintained a strong balance sheet with $13.2 million in working capital and no debt since September 2022.
Strategic Expansion into Canada
Entered the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, targeting Mannville heavy oil fairway with promising new technologies.
Successful Contract Revision
Revised gas sales agreement with Bahiagás, increasing firm sales by 33% and removing previous contractual ceiling provisions.
Negative Updates
Decreased Q4 Operating Netback
Operating netback decreased by $4.10 from the previous quarter, primarily due to lower sales volumes and prices.
Foreign Exchange Losses
Experienced a $2 million foreign exchange loss in Q4 2024, a significant swing from a $600,000 gain in Q3.
Reduced Natural Gas Sales Price
Natural gas sales price decreased by about 4% from the previous quarter.
Sales Volume Reduction
Q4 2024 saw a 17% reduction in sales volumes compared to Q3.
Company Guidance
In the Q4 2024 results webcast, Alvopetro provided detailed guidance for 2025, highlighting several key metrics. The company has increased its firm natural gas supply to Bahiagás by 33%, leading to an average production of 2,375 barrels of oil equivalent per day in January and February, up 37% from Q4 2024. The operating netback was reported at $55.09, with a margin of 86%, despite a 4% reduction in realized sales price and a 17% reduction in volumes. Alvopetro announced a dividend increase to US$0.10 per share for Q1 2025, reflecting higher sales volumes. The year-end reserve report showed a 65% increase in 1P reserves, totaling 4.5 million BOE, and a 5% increase in 2P reserves, totaling 9.1 million BOE. The company's balance sheet remains strong, with $13.2 million in working capital and no debt. Alvopetro has strategically entered the Canadian market, drilling two wells in the Mannville heavy oil fairway, aiming to capitalize on multi-zone reservoirs. The company projects a strong 2025 with a focus on maintaining a balanced capital allocation model, emphasizing both organic growth and stakeholder returns.

Alvopetro Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Alvopetro Energy exhibits strong financial performance with robust profitability and a stable balance sheet. The company has a high return on equity and low leverage, indicating financial stability. However, challenges in cash flow management, particularly in free cash flow growth, slightly offset these strengths.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Alvopetro Energy shows strong profitability with a consistent increase in net profit margins, reaching 37.29% in TTM. The revenue growth rate of 6.99% in TTM indicates a positive trajectory, although it has fluctuated in previous years. Gross profit margins remain robust, though slightly decreased from 2023. Overall, the company demonstrates solid financial health with strong EBIT and EBITDA margins.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09 in TTM, indicating prudent leverage management. Return on equity is healthy at 25.76%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. However, the slight increase in debt over the years warrants monitoring.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a decrease in free cash flow growth by 19% in TTM, which is a concern. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.31 indicates efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains positive, though it has declined, suggesting room for improvement in cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue51.12M45.52M58.03M63.51M34.98M11.31M
Gross Profit33.61M32.46M53.83M48.47M20.13M7.16M
EBITDA37.24M28.11M41.96M46.28M22.16M5.64M
Net Income22.30M16.30M28.52M31.73M5.59M5.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets116.97M101.02M109.83M98.43M73.63M80.39M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments15.00M21.70M18.33M19.78M11.47M5.16M
Total Debt7.46M7.86M8.68M9.43M14.52M23.73M
Total Liabilities23.76M21.66M21.62M22.02M22.61M27.28M
Stockholders Equity93.21M79.36M88.21M76.41M51.02M53.11M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow11.55M19.60M20.25M22.74M19.78M-356.00K
Operating Cash Flow37.12M34.90M47.70M47.53M24.29M3.06M
Investing Cash Flow-24.47M-11.69M-27.75M-22.77M-3.98M-3.23M
Financing Cash Flow-17.08M-17.99M-21.74M-16.55M-13.74M4.23M

Alvopetro Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price6.45
Price Trends
50DMA
6.53
Negative
100DMA
6.19
Positive
200DMA
5.56
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.08
Positive
RSI
41.82
Neutral
STOCH
21.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ALV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.41, below the 50-day MA of 6.53, and above the 200-day MA of 5.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:ALV.

Alvopetro Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
C$220.76M8.1021.90%8.79%2.20%38.33%
76
Outperform
C$196.98M6.3542.32%8.92%6.65%9.78%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
61
Neutral
C$334.23M-79.66-1.09%12.73%16.69%-108.64%
59
Neutral
C$223.69M25.410.20%6.86%-8.58%-98.92%
49
Neutral
$261.92M-11.70-43.41%4.22%-6.56%-42.28%
46
Neutral
C$279.39M-89.06%17.26%65.00%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:ALV
Alvopetro Energy
6.24
1.78
39.91%
TSE:PNE
Pine Cliff Energy
0.83
0.02
2.09%
TSE:HME
Hemisphere Energy
2.13
0.46
27.54%
TSE:GASX
NG Energy International
1.10
0.16
17.02%
TSE:PRQ
Petrus Resources
1.75
0.42
31.58%
TSE:IPO
InPlay Oil Corp.
12.70
3.98
45.64%

Alvopetro Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Alvopetro Energy Reports September Sales and Strategic Expansion
Positive
Oct 7, 2025

Alvopetro Energy Ltd. reported September 2025 sales volumes of 2,231 boepd, with significant contributions from its Murucututu field in Brazil. The company has adjusted its natural gas pricing and entered into a new agreement to expand its Mannville Stack opportunities in Western Saskatchewan. Additionally, Alvopetro is disposing of its non-core Bom Lugar and Mãe da Lua oil fields in Brazil, which is expected to streamline its operations and focus on more strategic assets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALV) stock is a Buy with a C$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alvopetro Energy stock, see the TSE:ALV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Alvopetro Declares Q3 2025 Dividend, Reinforcing Growth and Shareholder Returns
Positive
Sep 15, 2025

Alvopetro Energy Ltd. has announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.10 per share, payable on October 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 30, 2025. This move reflects the company’s strategy of balancing capital reinvestment and shareholder returns, potentially strengthening its market position and appealing to investors seeking income from dividends.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALV) stock is a Buy with a C$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alvopetro Energy stock, see the TSE:ALV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alvopetro Energy Reports Strong August Sales and Production Expansion Plans
Positive
Sep 4, 2025

Alvopetro Energy Ltd. reported August 2025 sales volumes of 2,375 boepd, with significant contributions from its Murucututu field in Brazil following the start of production from the 183-D4 well. The company is currently constrained by facility capacity at Murucututu and is exploring options to enhance production capacity. In Canada, Alvopetro anticipates commencing oil sales from new wells at Big Gully in September. These developments underscore Alvopetro’s strategic focus on optimizing production and expanding its operational capabilities in key markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALV) stock is a Buy with a C$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alvopetro Energy stock, see the TSE:ALV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Alvopetro Energy Reports Record Production from Murucututu Well
Positive
Aug 25, 2025

Alvopetro Energy Ltd. has announced promising initial production results from its 183-D4 well in the Murucututu field, achieving record natural gas production levels. This development supports the company’s growth objectives and highlights the potential of its Brazilian assets. The company is currently evaluating options to enhance production capacity due to facility constraints. Additionally, Alvopetro is progressing with joint development activities in its Caburé field and expanding operations in Western Canada, which includes new wells that have commenced production.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALV) stock is a Buy with a C$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alvopetro Energy stock, see the TSE:ALV Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2025