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Atrium Mortgage Invest
(TSX:AI)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
C$12.50
â–²(7.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is led by solid underlying financial strength and a supportive earnings-call outlook (liquidity, improving impaired loans, and guidance for renewed portfolio growth). Offsetting this are the sharp TTM revenue decline and weaker cash-flow coverage signals, while technical momentum remains muted; valuation and dividend yield are supportive but not enough to fully offset the growth and credit-migration risks.
Positive Factors
High profitability / margins
Sustained high operating and net margins give the mortgage REIT durable earnings power versus peers. Strong margins provide a buffer for credit volatility and support dividend capacity and internal reinvestment even if top-line growth moderates over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Sharp TTM revenue decline
A sustained ~41% TTM decline in revenue signals meaningful pressure on earning-asset growth and portfolio yields. If weaker origination or elevated prepayments persist, durable revenue erosion could constrain cash generation, limit reinvestment, and pressure dividend sustainability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability / margins
Sustained high operating and net margins give the mortgage REIT durable earnings power versus peers. Strong margins provide a buffer for credit volatility and support dividend capacity and internal reinvestment even if top-line growth moderates over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Atrium Mortgage Invest (AI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$554.53M
Dividend Yield8.98%
Average Volume (3M)139.35K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth-10.85%
EPS Growth-5.88%
CountryCA
EmployeesN/A
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Mortgages
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.99
Shares Outstanding48,346,275
10 Day Avg. Volume119,026
30 Day Avg. Volume139,346
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.97
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)6.47
P/FCF Ratio9.27
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$12.91Price Target Upside11.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$80.25M
Atrium Mortgage Invest Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation operates as a specialized non-bank lender, delivering financial solutions to the real estate sector across Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia. The company offers a comprehensive portfolio of mortgage prod...
How the Company Makes Money
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Atrium Mortgage Invest Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and balance-sheet picture: improved impaired loan balances (Stage 3), strong liquidity, lower funding costs, conservative LTVs, active new originations and geographic expansion, and low loan loss expense in the quarter. Offsetting negatives included a year-over-year decline in net income and EPS, a contraction in portfolio size driven by unusually high repayments, migration into Stage 2 (and a higher allowance-to-portfolio ratio), and a modest decline in portfolio yield as higher-yielding loans prepaid. Overall, management expressed confidence in the pipeline and expects portfolio growth to at least $900M by year-end.Positive Updates
Solid Earnings vs Dividend Coverage
Net income of $11.7M and basic EPS of $0.24 in Q2 2026; quarterly EPS exceeded the regular dividend of $0.2325. Year-to-date EPS of $0.49 exceeds the annualized dividend of $0.465 per share.
Negative Updates
YoY Decline in Net Income and EPS
Net income fell to $11.7M in Q2 2026 from $13.1M in Q2 2025; basic EPS declined to $0.24 from $0.28 year-over-year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Earnings vs Dividend Coverage
Net income of $11.7M and basic EPS of $0.24 in Q2 2026; quarterly EPS exceeded the regular dividend of $0.2325. Year-to-date EPS of $0.49 exceeds the annualized dividend of $0.465 per share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that the loan portfolio should grow to at least $900 million by year-end (up from $860.1M at June 30, 2026 and down from $917.1M at Dec‑31, 2025), driven by a moderation in repayments and new production from all three offices with a larger Western Canada contribution (BC strong in Q2; Alberta office opened mid‑April, closed 1 loan and has 2 binding commitments). Key underlying Q2 metrics cited: $121.9M of repayments vs $88.2M of advances (net write‑offs $1M), a portfolio turnover rate of 58% annualized (vs 38% in 2025), weighted average mortgage rate 8.69% (down from 8.86% at Mar‑31), 80.9% of loans floating, 96.9% first mortgages, weighted average LTV 62.5% (vs 61.4% at year‑end), construction loans $52M (from $43M), high‑ratio loans $82M (~9.5% of portfolio), Stage 1 $704.6M / Stage 2 $93.9M / Stage 3 $61.5M, allowance for credit losses $30.1M (3.5% of the portfolio), Q2 PCL $137k, debt at 36.5% of assets with $224.1M drawn on a $380M facility and a weighted borrowing cost of 4.67%; the Board reiterated dividend guidance of $0.0775 monthly for Oct–Dec (consistent with a $0.93 annual standard) while YTD EPS of $0.49 remains above the $0.465 per‑share dividend.Atrium Mortgage Invest Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 80.50M | 85.14M | 88.70M | 90.11M | 69.84M | 56.99M |
| Gross Profit | 71.87M | 76.35M | 49.15M | 52.78M | 49.26M | 43.17M |
| EBITDA | 66.36M | 69.59M | 47.85M | 51.48M | 46.33M | 41.79M |
| Net Income | 47.80M | 49.06M | 47.85M | 51.48M | 46.33M | 41.79M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 835.61M | 893.63M | 864.30M | 877.88M | 874.78M | 775.49M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 296.95M | 355.39M | 147.44M | 169.60M | 168.96M | 174.54M |
| Total Liabilities | 304.80M | 368.58M | 347.32M | 395.67M | 399.22M | 305.32M |
| Stockholders Equity | 530.82M | 525.05M | 516.98M | 482.21M | 475.56M | 470.17M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 58.38M | 59.40M | 68.13M | 34.87M | 58.07M | 67.89M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 58.38M | 59.40M | 68.13M | 34.87M | 58.07M | 67.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 54.21M | -42.03M | -24.86M | 13.28M | -87.81M | -33.02M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -112.59M | -17.36M | -68.13M | -48.15M | 29.74M | -34.86M |
Atrium Mortgage Invest Technical Analysis
Neutral
11.58
Price Trends
11.67
Negative
11.64
Negative
11.34
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.08
Positive
47.68
Neutral
45.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.51, below the 50-day MA of 11.67, and above the 200-day MA of 11.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:AI.
Atrium Mortgage Invest Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | C$1.41B | 10.23 | 11.40% | 2.37% | 10.08% | 33.25% | |
71 Outperform | C$433.53M | 12.29 | 8.24% | 8.68% | -10.14% | -7.73% | |
69 Neutral | C$999.71M | 29.37 | 6.17% | 0.32% | 13.80% | 11.27% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | C$554.53M | 11.59 | 9.06% | 9.06% | -10.85% | -5.88% | |
63 Neutral | C$890.54M | 10.37 | 13.08% | 7.86% | 12.78% | 14.21% | |
62 Neutral | C$479.97M | 18.95 | 3.85% | 12.08% | -5.01% | -41.36% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:AI
Atrium Mortgage Invest
11.47
0.87
8.19%
TSE:AGF.B
AGF Management B NV
21.90
9.60
78.01%
TSE:FC
Firm Cap Mortgage Invest
11.80
0.63
5.59%
TSE:MKP
MCAN Financial
21.88
1.30
6.34%
TSE:TF
Timbercreek Financial
5.80
-1.10
-15.95%
TSE:VBNK
Versabank
30.84
14.67
90.77%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.