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Alamos Gold (TSE:AGI)
TSX:AGI
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Alamos Gold (AGI) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:AGI

Alamos Gold

(TSX:AGI)

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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
C$47.00
▲(8.70% Upside)
Alamos Gold's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, offset by bearish technical indicators and high valuation metrics. The company's robust revenue growth and profitability are significant strengths, but the stock's current technical and valuation metrics suggest caution.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The company's strong revenue growth indicates successful expansion and increased market demand for its products, supporting long-term financial stability and investment in future projects.
Operational Efficiency
Improved gross profit margins reflect effective cost control measures, enhancing profitability and providing a buffer against potential market fluctuations.
Strategic Expansion
The strategic expansion in the Island Gold District could lead to increased production capacity and profitability, strengthening Alamos Gold's competitive position in the market.
Negative Factors
Cost Management Challenges
Rising costs can pressure margins and reduce profitability, necessitating improved cost management strategies to maintain financial health.
Operational Setbacks
Operational delays at key sites can hinder production targets and revenue growth, requiring effective management to mitigate long-term impacts.
Environmental Challenges
Environmental issues like groundwater inflow can disrupt operations and increase costs, highlighting the need for robust risk management and contingency planning.

Alamos Gold (AGI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Alamos Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlamos gold holding oorperatief u.a. operates as a subsidiary of Alamos Gold Inc.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlamos Gold generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of gold. The company extracts gold from its mining operations, and the revenue is derived from the sale of gold bullion and concentrates to various customers, including refiners and dealers. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold produced from its mines, as well as potential by-products such as silver. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its exploration and development capabilities. Additionally, fluctuations in gold prices directly impact its earnings, making the company sensitive to market conditions in the commodities sector.

Alamos Gold Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in revenue and cash flow, strong liquidity, and progress in key expansion projects. However, these were tempered by challenges such as lowered production guidance and delays in key projects due to operational issues.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Free Cash Flow
The company delivered record revenue of $462 million and record free cash flow of $130 million in the third quarter, driven by higher production, record gold prices, and lower costs.
Strong Cash Position
The cash balance increased to over $600 million, with total liquidity of over $1.1 billion, providing flexibility for debt reduction, share buybacks, and growth investments.
TSX30 Recognition
The company was recognized for the second consecutive year as a TSX30 winner by the Toronto Stock Exchange for strong share price performance of 310% over the trailing 3 years.
Island Gold Expansion Progress
The expansion at Island Gold is progressing well, with shaft sinking nearly complete, and the project is expected to drive significant production growth by 2026.
Negative Updates
Lowered Production Guidance
Production guidance for 2025 has been reduced by 6% due to unplanned downtime at the Magino mill and a seismic event at Island Gold, affecting access to higher grade areas.
Seismic Event at Island Gold
A seismic event at Island Gold delayed access to higher-grade stopes, leading to lower than planned production in the fourth quarter.
Magino Mill Downtime
The Magino mill experienced one week of unplanned downtime due to a capacitor failure, affecting third-quarter production.
Lynn Lake Project Delays
Forest fires in Northern Manitoba delayed progress on the Lynn Lake project, pushing expected initial production to 2029 and increasing costs due to inflation.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter 2025 conference call, Alamos revised its annual production guidance down by 6% due to unexpected downtime at the Magino mill and a seismic event at Island Gold. Despite these setbacks, the company reported an 18% anticipated production increase for the fourth quarter, driven by improved grades and throughput at its mines, leading to record production. The third quarter saw production of 141,700 ounces, a 3% increase from the previous quarter, with cash costs decreasing by 9% and all-in sustaining costs by 7%. Alamos achieved record revenue and free cash flow of $130 million, projecting further financial improvements in the fourth quarter. The company's full-year production guidance was adjusted to 560,000–580,000 ounces, and capital guidance was updated to $539–$599 million, a 10% decrease from prior estimates. Alamos also announced a $470 million sale of its Turkish development project, increasing its cash balance to over $600 million, with plans to reduce debt and pursue share buybacks.

Alamos Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Alamos Gold demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability margins. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage, although a slight increase in liabilities requires monitoring. Cash flow generation is strong, despite some pressure on free cash flow.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Alamos Gold has demonstrated robust revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $1.4 billion, marking a steady increase from $821 million in 2022. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 44.3%, showcasing efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased slightly to 18.4% from 21.1% in 2024, indicating potential cost pressures or a decrease in pricing power. Despite this, the company maintains strong EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08, indicating conservative leverage. The return on equity (ROE) stands at a healthy 7.2%, reflecting effective utilization of shareholder funds. With an equity ratio of 67.1%, the company is well-capitalized with a strong equity base. However, a slight increase in total liabilities signals the need for careful monitoring of debt levels.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.45, indicating robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow has declined from 2024, resulting in a negative free cash flow growth rate of -20.0%. Despite this, the company maintains a healthy free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.73, suggesting efficient capital expenditure management and the ability to fund operations internally.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.51B1.35B1.02B821.20M823.60M748.10M
Gross Profit707.10M595.80M385.60M212.30M289.50M272.60M
EBITDA798.70M735.00M486.40M321.20M176.14M387.90M
Net Income346.70M284.30M210.00M37.10M-66.70M144.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.54B5.34B4.00B3.67B3.62B3.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments378.20M351.20M237.80M148.40M196.40M264.20M
Total Debt280.30M286.60M994.88K400.00K400.00K500.00K
Total Liabilities1.79B1.75B1.08B953.10M885.90M785.00M
Stockholders Equity3.75B3.58B2.92B2.72B2.74B2.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow160.10M235.80M123.80M-15.20M-7.80M67.50M
Operating Cash Flow636.80M661.10M472.70M298.50M356.50M368.40M
Investing Cash Flow-480.80M-467.10M-351.80M-312.70M-357.10M-314.10M
Financing Cash Flow-123.90M-89.40M-26.00M-28.40M-47.30M-15.60M

Alamos Gold Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price43.24
Price Trends
50DMA
45.18
Negative
100DMA
40.55
Positive
200DMA
37.78
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.58
Positive
RSI
42.70
Neutral
STOCH
32.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 43.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.35, below the 50-day MA of 45.18, and above the 200-day MA of 37.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:AGI.

Alamos Gold Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$23.00B26.7152.25%3.14%63.08%177.42%
$39.76B18.7822.05%0.52%38.34%218.80%
C$14.16B43.398.03%3.00%78.26%
$9.34B8.3826.28%63.67%466.20%
$18.18B24.3914.27%0.32%34.64%115.75%
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
$8.12B-12.34%2.28%15.08%-204.35%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:AGI
Alamos Gold
43.24
15.39
55.27%
TSE:IMG
IAMGOLD
16.24
8.87
120.35%
TSE:K
Kinross Gold
32.62
18.88
137.41%
TSE:BTO
B2Gold
6.14
1.72
38.98%
TSE:LUG
Lundin Gold
95.35
64.13
205.39%
TSE:EDV
Endeavour Mining
56.19
26.73
90.73%

Alamos Gold Corporate Events

Alamos Gold Reports Record Cash Flow Amid Challenges
Oct 31, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc., a prominent player in the gold mining industry, is known for its operations across North America, focusing on sustainable and high-return growth projects. In its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, Alamos Gold announced record free cash flow of $130 million, driven by increased production and margin expansion despite some operational challenges. The company produced 141,700 ounces of gold, a 3% increase from the previous quarter, although slightly below guidance due to unplanned downtime at the Magino mill and a seismic event at Island Gold. Alamos Gold sold 136,473 ounces of gold at an average price of $3,359 per ounce, generating record revenues of $462.3 million. The company reported net earnings of $276.3 million, with adjusted net earnings at $155.5 million. Looking ahead, Alamos Gold expects a significant improvement in the fourth quarter with an 18% production increase and a 5% cost decrease. The company remains optimistic about its long-term growth prospects, particularly with the ongoing Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold and the Lynn Lake project, which are expected to drive substantial production increases and cost reductions in the coming years.

Alamos Gold Achieves Record Q3 2025 Results Amid Operational Challenges
Oct 30, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. reported record financial results for the third quarter of 2025, driven by increased production and expanded margins, resulting in a record free cash flow of $130 million. Despite facing challenges such as unplanned downtime at the Magino mill and a seismic event at Island Gold, the company remains optimistic about its future performance, expecting a significant production increase and cost reduction in the fourth quarter. Alamos has also completed the sale of its Turkish development projects and the Quartz Mountain Gold Project, bolstering its cash reserves and positioning the company to reduce debt and potentially engage in share buybacks.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Alamos Gold Sells Turkish Projects for $470 Million
Positive
Oct 27, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. has finalized the sale of its Turkish development projects, including the Kirazlı, Ağı Dağı, and Çamyurt projects, to Tümad Madencilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş for a total cash consideration of $470 million. The transaction, which involves an initial payment of $160 million and subsequent payments on the first and second anniversaries, is secured by bank guarantees from international financial institutions. This strategic move allows Alamos to focus on its core operations and growth projects in North America, potentially enhancing its market position and financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Alamos Gold Completes Sale of Quartz Mountain Project
Positive
Oct 22, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. has completed the sale of its option to earn a 100% interest in the Quartz Mountain Gold Project to Q-Gold Resources Ltd. The transaction includes an initial payment of $2.85 million in cash and the issuance of 13,924,702 common shares of Q-Gold to Alamos, representing a 9.99% equity interest. The remaining consideration of up to $18.15 million will be paid in cash or shares over the next three years, including guaranteed and milestone payments. This sale allows Alamos to focus on its core operations and growth projects, potentially enhancing its market positioning and operational focus.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Alamos Gold to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Oct 2, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. announced it will release its third quarter 2025 financial results on October 29, 2025, followed by a conference call on October 30, 2025, to discuss the results. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and future outlook, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Alamos Gold Sells Turkish Projects for $470 Million to Focus on North American Growth
Positive
Sep 15, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. has announced the sale of its Turkish development projects, including Kirazlı, Aǧı Daǧı, and Çamyurt, to Tümad Madencilik for $470 million. The transaction allows Alamos to focus on its North American projects, reduce debt, and discontinue arbitration proceedings with Türkiye, enhancing its growth profile in the sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Achieves TSX30 Recognition for Second Year
Positive
Sep 9, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. has been recognized for the second consecutive year as a top performer in the TSX30 by the Toronto Stock Exchange, with its share price increasing by 310% over the past three years. This recognition underscores Alamos Gold’s commitment to sustainable business practices and strong returns for stakeholders, supported by its growth projects, increasing gold production, and improving cost profile, positioning it as a leading gold producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Alamos Gold Declares Quarterly Dividend and Introduces Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Aug 28, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. has announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.025 per common share, continuing its 16-year streak of dividend payments, with $32 million returned to shareholders in 2025. The company has also introduced a dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP), allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into common shares at a 1% discount, enhancing their investment without transaction costs. This move reflects Alamos Gold’s commitment to providing value to its shareholders while maintaining a strong financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Alamos Gold Declares Quarterly Dividend and Offers Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Aug 28, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. has announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.025 per common share, marking 16 consecutive years of dividend payments and returning $32 million to shareholders in 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into additional shares at a 1% discount, enhancing shareholder value and potentially increasing investment in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Alamos Gold Unveils 2024 ESG Achievements
Positive
Aug 26, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. has released its 2024 ESG Report, highlighting significant achievements in environmental, social, and governance areas. The report underscores the company’s commitment to sustainability, with key accomplishments including a $1.5 million investment in community initiatives, zero significant environmental incidents, and strengthened partnerships with Indigenous communities. Additionally, Alamos achieved a 9% reduction in Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions and maintained compliance with the World Gold Council’s Responsible Gold Mining Principles for five consecutive years. These efforts reflect Alamos’ dedication to aligning with leading sustainability frameworks and enhancing its industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Files $500 Million Base Shelf Prospectus
Aug 8, 2025

On August 8, 2025, Alamos Gold Inc. announced the filing of a base shelf prospectus with the Ontario Securities Commission and a corresponding shelf registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This prospectus allows for the issuance of up to $500 million in securities over 25 months, providing financial flexibility, although the company has no immediate plans to offer securities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$29.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Releases Technical Update on Island Gold District
Aug 7, 2025

On August 7, 2025, Alamos Gold Inc. released technical information regarding its Island Gold District, which includes the Island Gold and Magino mines. The company holds 100% of the mineral rights and interests in these properties, which are strategically located in Northern Ontario. The Island Gold District is notable for its significant exploration potential and established infrastructure, which supports ongoing and future mining operations. This announcement highlights Alamos Gold’s strong position in the gold mining sector and its commitment to maximizing the value of its assets through strategic acquisitions and resource management.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$29.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Files Technical Report for Island Gold District
Aug 7, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Alamos Gold Inc. announced the filing of a technical report for the Base Case Life of Mine Plan for its Island Gold District operation in Ontario, Canada. This report, prepared in accordance with the National Instrument 43-101 standards, supports the company’s previous disclosures and is accessible on their website and regulatory platforms. This development is expected to provide stakeholders with detailed insights into the operational and financial outlook of the Island Gold District, potentially impacting Alamos Gold’s market positioning and future growth strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$29.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Releases Island Gold District Technical Report
Aug 6, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Alamos Gold Inc. released a technical report for the Island Gold District in Dubreuilville, Ontario, Canada, effective as of June 23, 2025. The report outlines the company’s strategic plans and expectations for the integration of Island Gold and Magino operations, including detailed estimates of Mineral Resources and Reserves, mine plans, and project infrastructure. The report also discusses the anticipated economic impacts, project-related risks, and operational strategies, emphasizing the company’s focus on sustainability and community impact. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into Alamos Gold’s future operational and financial performance, highlighting potential growth and development within the gold mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$29.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold’s Earnings Call: Strong Growth Amid Challenges
Aug 2, 2025

The recent earnings call for Alamos Gold, Inc. conveyed a generally positive sentiment, underscored by strong revenue and cash flow performance, alongside effective cost management and ambitious expansion plans. Despite some operational challenges and increased cost guidance, the company’s strategic initiatives and positive developments appear to outweigh these concerns, painting an optimistic picture for stakeholders.

Alamos Gold Reports Record Cash Flow and Growth
Aug 1, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. is a Canadian-based gold producer operating in the mining sector, known for its focus on low-cost, high-return projects across North America. In its second quarter of 2025, Alamos Gold reported a significant increase in production and a decrease in costs, resulting in record cash flow from operations and substantial free cash flow. The company produced 137,200 ounces of gold, a 10% increase from the previous quarter, and achieved record quarterly revenues of $438.2 million. The Island Gold District, a key driver of growth, successfully transitioned to processing ore through the larger Magino mill, contributing to the improved performance. Alamos Gold’s strategic focus on growth projects, such as the Phase 3+ Expansion and the Lynn Lake project, is expected to drive further production increases and cost reductions in the coming years. The company remains optimistic about its long-term prospects, with plans to expand production to approximately one million ounces per year through ongoing development and exploration efforts.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2025