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Ag Growth International
(TSX:AFN)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
C$10.50
▼(-18.60% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/29/26
The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance: losses, negative operating/free cash flow, and very high leverage. Technicals are only modestly supportive due to a short-term rebound within a broader downtrend. Valuation is mixed, with a strong dividend yield offset by a negative P/E driven by losses.
Positive Factors
Broad agricultural infrastructure portfolio
AGI serves several essential stages of the agricultural and food value chain rather than relying on one equipment category. Its combination of storage, handling, conditioning, and processing products can support cross-selling and make the business relevant to customers’ ongoing infrastructure needs.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage and shrinking equity
The high debt burden leaves AGI with a thin equity cushion and materially reduces financial flexibility. Shrinking equity and negative recent returns increase the consequences of operating weakness, while substantial leverage can constrain investment, capital allocation, and the ability to absorb further setbacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Broad agricultural infrastructure portfolio
AGI serves several essential stages of the agricultural and food value chain rather than relying on one equipment category. Its combination of storage, handling, conditioning, and processing products can support cross-selling and make the business relevant to customers’ ongoing infrastructure needs.
Read all positive factors
Ag Growth International (AFN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$203.34M
Dividend Yield5.57%
Average Volume (3M)231.00K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth1.23%
EPS Growth-1641.31%
CountryCA
Employees3,679
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAgricultural - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-6.22
Shares Outstanding18,880,490
10 Day Avg. Volume221,941
30 Day Avg. Volume231,004
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.48
Price to Book (P/B)1.76
Price to Sales (P/S)0.31
P/FCF Ratio-4.32
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$10.38Price Target Upside-19.57% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.28B
Ag Growth International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ag Growth International Inc. (AGI), through its subsidiaries, is a global manufacturer and distributor of equipment for the handling, storage, and conditioning of grain and rice. The company operates extensively across Canada, the United States, a...
How the Company Makes Money
AGI makes money primarily by selling agricultural equipment and engineered systems, and by providing related services tied to those sales. Its core revenue streams include: (1) Product sales of grain storage and conditioning equipment (e.g., bins/...
Ag Growth International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call mixed modest revenue growth and international/commercial topline strength with material operational and financial setbacks. Management disclosed significant margin compression (~830 bps), a large negative free cash flow outflow (~$111M in 2025), elevated leverage (4.7x), and execution failures—notably in Brazil—while outlining a clear restructuring plan, $20M+ annualized SG&A savings, ERP termination to preserve cash, and expectation to monetize $80–$100M of receivables to improve liquidity. The initiatives are constructive but the magnitude and immediacy of the profit, cash and leverage issues indicate significant near-term risk.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth in Q4
Consolidated Q4 revenue increased 4% year-over-year to $396 million, driven by strength in the Commercial segment and international markets.
Negative Updates
Significant EBITDA and Margin Compression
Adjusted EBITDA decreased ~38% year-over-year to approximately $48.3 million in Q4; adjusted EBITDA margin compressed to 12.2%, a decline of roughly 830 basis points versus prior year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth in Q4
Consolidated Q4 revenue increased 4% year-over-year to $396 million, driven by strength in the Commercial segment and international markets.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said Q4 revenue was $396M (+4% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $48M (‑38% YoY) and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.2% (down ~830 bps); segment detail: Farm Q4 revenue $123M (‑8% YoY; Canada ‑34%, U.S. +11%, International +36%) with Farm adj. EBITDA $19.8M (‑39%, 16% margin vs 24.1% prior), and Commercial Q4 revenue $273M (+10%; international $206M, +18%) with Commercial adj. EBITDA $33M (‑39%, 12% margin vs 21.6% prior). They closed 2025 with an order book of $543M (‑26% YoY), negative free cash flow of ~$111M for 2025, net debt leverage 4.7x (vs 3.9x q/q, 3.1x y/y), and disclosed a $21M transactional expense in Q4; management expects negative FCF in Q1 but plans to monetize Brazil receivables (already $7M received, targeting $80–100M by H1) to materially improve cash flow. Near-term actions: terminate the ERP, suspend the dividend, reduce the executive team from 17 to 8 and complete North America realignment in ~30 days, drive at least $20M of annualized SG&A savings and ~$20M of cash cost avoidance over two years, incur ~ $20M of one‑time costs in H1, pause new large-scale financed projects (equipment‑only in Brazil only), refinance the dec‑maturity debenture in Q2–Q3, and target returning to historical margins (but not near‑term 18–20% levels) while pursuing a longer‑term leverage target of ~2.5x.Ag Growth International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.39B | 1.42B | 1.40B | 1.53B | 1.46B | 1.20B |
| Gross Profit | 336.64M | 349.37M | 447.99M | 479.13M | 420.60M | 304.01M |
| EBITDA | 136.41M | 187.07M | 133.62M | 223.07M | 91.18M | 116.11M |
| Net Income | -117.24M | -26.39M | -20.08M | 68.89M | -50.58M | 10.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.63B | 1.71B | 1.67B | 1.65B | 1.65B | 1.59B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.51M | 51.01M | 79.89M | 88.04M | 59.64M | 61.31M |
| Total Debt | 1.01B | 1.01B | 895.16M | 906.95M | 916.32M | 887.23M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.43B | 1.46B | 1.37B | 1.34B | 1.38B | 1.32B |
| Stockholders Equity | 186.12M | 246.90M | 298.44M | 317.98M | 265.67M | 268.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -31.00M | -100.88M | 79.15M | 48.95M | 49.87M | -6.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -14.12M | -79.96M | 110.82M | 105.63M | 102.17M | 39.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -19.48M | -30.50M | -36.54M | -43.12M | -85.77M | -75.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 14.46M | 75.90M | -82.43M | -34.11M | -18.07M | 35.05M |
Ag Growth International Technical Analysis
Neutral
12.90
Price Trends
10.82
Negative
14.78
Negative
19.58
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.43
Negative
61.13
Neutral
85.24
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AFN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 12.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.86, above the 50-day MA of 10.82, and below the 200-day MA of 19.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:AFN.
Ag Growth International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$474.27M | 13.08 | 16.61% | 0.24% | 29.57% | -7.54% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | C$140.77M | 28.66 | 10.60% | 4.44% | -4.58% | -36.77% | |
57 Neutral | C$388.60M | 13.42 | 9.04% | 98.67% | -5.27% | -37.28% | |
47 Neutral | C$332.71M | 21.22 | -29.88% | ― | 101.45% | ― | |
45 Neutral | C$203.34M | -1.73 | -48.31% | 5.57% | 1.23% | -1641.31% | |
45 Neutral | C$372.35M | -10.44 | -14.80% | 3.25% | -9.05% | 73.48% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Ag Growth International Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ag Growth International Sets Date for Q3 2026 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Oct 15, 2026
Ag Growth International Inc. will release its third quarter 2026 financial results after markets close on November 11, 2026, and discuss the performance in a conference call on November 12, 2026. The company will host a webcast and provide a limit...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Ag Growth International Details Debt-Reduction Plan and Strategic Asset Sales
Positive
Sep 30, 2026
Ag Growth International has outlined an updated capital strategy aimed at reducing debt, improving cash generation and accelerating balance sheet deleveraging as it heads into 2027. The company is seeing strengthening farm markets and rising comme...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Ag Growth International Seeks Approval to Extend and Reprice 2026 Debentures
Positive
Sep 24, 2026
Ag Growth International Inc. plans to seek debentureholder approval to amend the terms of its Third Series 5.25% senior subordinated unsecured debentures due December 31, 2026. The company is proposing to extend the maturity to December 31, 2030 a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.