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TransMedics Group
(NASDAQ:TMDX)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$78.00
▼(-15.42% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/11/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial progress and sustained growth (now profitable with solid gross margins), but is capped by rising leverage and recent margin/free-cash-flow softness. Earnings call takeaways are supportive on demand and guidance, yet near-term profitability is expected to remain pressured due to heavy investment and PAD dilution. Technically, momentum is mixed, and valuation looks reasonable but lacks dividend support.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth reflects expanding adoption of the OCS platform and rising logistics utilization rather than a single temporary event. Continued product and service expansion should support greater operating scale and reinforce TransMedics’ position in transplant infrastructure over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
The increase in leverage reduces financial flexibility as TransMedics funds expansion and absorbs higher interest costs. If profitability remains under pressure, a larger debt burden could constrain capital allocation, raise financing sensitivity, and leave less room to respond to operational setbacks or slower adoption.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth reflects expanding adoption of the OCS platform and rising logistics utilization rather than a single temporary event. Continued product and service expansion should support greater operating scale and reinforce TransMedics’ position in transplant infrastructure over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
TransMedics Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Divides revenue by market to show geographic strengths and vulnerabilities. Expansion into multiple transplant hubs points to scalable adoption and reduced reliance on any single region, while heavy dependence on one area increases risk from regulatory, reimbursement, or economic changes there.
Divides revenue by market to show geographic strengths and vulnerabilities. Expansion into multiple transplant hubs points to scalable adoption and reduced reliance on any single region, while heavy dependence on one area increases risk from regulatory, reimbursement, or economic changes there.
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The Fly
The FlyTransMedics Group (TMDX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.51B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)815.03K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.4
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth25.82%
EPS Growth108.84%
CountryUS
Employees898
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.42
Shares Outstanding34,675,144
10 Day Avg. Volume908,637
30 Day Avg. Volume815,027
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)8.74
Price to Sales (P/S)6.83
P/FCF Ratio30.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.23
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.64
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$97.44Price Target Upside5.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$743.64M
TransMedics Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TransMedics Group, Inc. operates as a commercial-stage medical technology enterprise, committed to transforming the landscape of organ transplant therapy for patients worldwide grappling with end-stage organ failure. At the core of their offerings...
How the Company Makes Money
TransMedics generates revenue primarily by selling its OCS platform and associated recurring-use products and services used in individual transplant cases. Key revenue streams include: (1) Product revenue tied to the OCS ecosystem, including the O...
TransMedics Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and commercial picture: record revenue, strong product and service growth (notably liver and logistics), improved sequential gross margin, robust cash balance, and raised revenue guidance. At the same time, the company is investing heavily in strategic initiatives (OCS Kidney, Gen 3.0, ENHANCE, DENOVO, European logistics/PAD) which is elevating R&D and operating expenses, tempering near-term operating margin and introducing execution and timing risk (IDE approvals, PAD integration and international reimbursement). Overall, the fundamentals and long-term growth roadmap are strong, but near-term profitability will be impacted by deliberate, front-loaded investments and some timing uncertainties.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Volume
Total revenue of approximately $190 million, the highest quarterly revenue in company history, up ~21% year-over-year and ~9% sequentially.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Margin Pressure from Mix and Costs
Total gross margin declined ~180 basis points year-over-year (despite sequential improvement) due to higher mix of service revenue and temporary product cost pressures including inventory provisioning and trial-related solution costs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Volume
Total revenue of approximately $190 million, the highest quarterly revenue in company history, up ~21% year-over-year and ~9% sequentially.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TransMedics raised the low end of its 2026 revenue guide to $737–$757 million (≈22%–25% growth vs. 2025), explicitly assuming no revenue from the recent PAD Aviation investment and no meaningful contribution yet from ENHANCE Part B or DENOVO; management expects second-half gross margin (ex‑PAD) of ~59% and a full‑year adjusted operating margin (ex‑PAD) of ~12.5%–14% (vs. a prior ~16% target and 2025’s 18.5%), with Q2 adjusted operating margin at 13.6% (~$25.8M) and adjusted net income of $16.2M ($0.44 diluted EPS on ~40.7M shares). The company finished Q2 with ~$473M cash (+~$18M restricted), forecasts full‑year interest expense of ~ $29M (including ~$15.3M HQ‑related) partially offset by ~ $12M interest income, expects an effective tax rate of ~26% for the year, warns PAD consolidation in Q3 will be near‑term dilutive to gross and operating margins, and reiterates longer‑term targets of ~60% sustainable gross margin and a platform capable of ~30,000 transplants by 2032 driving >$2B in annual revenue.TransMedics Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 668.47M | 605.49M | 441.54M | 241.62M | 93.46M | 30.26M |
| Gross Profit | 392.35M | 362.81M | 262.08M | 154.09M | 65.27M | 21.16M |
| EBITDA | 130.22M | 148.49M | 69.95M | -7.70M | -28.96M | -38.49M |
| Net Income | 151.70M | 190.29M | 35.46M | -25.03M | -36.23M | -44.22M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.46B | 1.07B | 804.08M | 706.05M | 277.15M | 134.89M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 472.68M | 488.37M | 336.65M | 394.81M | 201.18M | 92.45M |
| Total Debt | 867.72M | 469.69M | 518.29M | 515.95M | 67.56M | 43.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 946.34M | 595.27M | 575.47M | 568.85M | 89.77M | 67.04M |
| Stockholders Equity | 518.05M | 473.10M | 228.60M | 137.20M | 187.38M | 67.85M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 79.04M | 133.59M | -80.94M | -192.09M | -57.72M | -32.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 145.93M | 192.84M | 48.80M | -13.03M | -45.82M | -28.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -66.89M | -59.25M | -129.30M | -193.95M | 54.51M | 29.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 11.47M | 16.86M | 22.87M | 400.42M | 167.93M | 1.39M |
TransMedics Group Technical Analysis
Negative
92.22
Price Trends
84.57
Negative
79.45
Negative
96.89
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.19
Positive
37.21
Neutral
33.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMDX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 92.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 78.90, above the 50-day MA of 84.57, and below the 200-day MA of 96.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMDX.
TransMedics Group Risk Analysis
TransMedics Group disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TransMedics Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TransMedics Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $50.89B | 50.80 | 9.69% | ― | 14.55% | 15.09% | |
80 Outperform | $121.05B | 22.75 | 10.60% | 3.07% | 9.77% | 12.28% | |
69 Neutral | $4.39B | 22.74 | 15.41% | ― | 12.39% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $5.33B | 56.85 | 11.35% | ― | 0.44% | -37.48% | |
66 Neutral | $2.51B | 16.38 | 32.97% | ― | 25.82% | 108.84% | |
56 Neutral | $1.13B | -384.23 | -0.71% | 1.15% | 16.40% | 85.99% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TMDX
TransMedics Group
72.40
-56.51
-43.84%
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LIVN
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TransMedics Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
TransMedics Group Names New Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Sep 10, 2026
On September 10, 2026, TransMedics announced that veteran healthcare finance executive Fernando Araujo will become Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer on September 21, 2026, succeeding Gerardo Hernandez, who shifts to a commercial advisory role ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.