Tilly's (TLYS) AI Stock Analysis

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Tilly's

(NYSE:TLYS)

Rating:42Neutral

Price Target:

$1.00

▼(-31.51%Downside)

Tilly's stock is currently underperforming, primarily due to weak financial performance and poor valuation. The technical analysis supports this negative outlook, with bearish trends across key indicators. While the earnings call provided some optimism regarding customer engagement, significant challenges remain, particularly in revenue and profitability, which weigh heavily on the overall score.

Tilly's (TLYS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$40.40M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)668.81K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.91

Revenue Growth-8.79%

EPS Growth-15.17%

CountryUS

Employees1,410

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength73

IndustryApparel - Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.74

Shares Outstanding22,845,798

10 Day Avg. Volume1,244,063

30 Day Avg. Volume668,810

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.08

Price to Book (P/B)0.48

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-0.97

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$2.25

Price Target Upside54.11% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering2

Tilly's Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTilly's, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women, and boys and girls in the United States. Its apparel merchandise includes tops, outerwear, bottoms, and dresses; and accessories merchandise comprises backpacks, hydration bottles, hats, sunglasses, small electronics and accessories, handbags, watches, jewelry, and others, as well as hardgoods consists of skateboards, longboards, bikes, roller-skates, and equipment for snowboarding and surfing. The company also provides third-party merchandise assortment across its various product categories. As of March 14, 2022, it operated 241 stores. The company also sells its merchandise through its e-commerce website, tillys.com. Tilly's, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyTilly's generates revenue through the sale of apparel, footwear, and accessories via its retail stores and online platform. The company's primary revenue stream comes from its extensive network of brick-and-mortar stores located across the United States, which attract a loyal customer base seeking trendy and fashionable products. Additionally, Tilly's leverages its e-commerce platform to reach a wider audience, offering an online shopping experience that complements its physical stores. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with popular brands and exclusive product offerings, which help drive sales and customer engagement. Overall, Tilly's revenue model is centered on maintaining a dynamic product assortment and adapting to changing fashion trends to meet customer demand.

Tilly's Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 04, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 12.31%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted some positive trends in customer engagement and a stabilization in sales decline. However, there were significant concerns due to a decrease in total net sales, increased net loss, and ongoing store closures. The company is cautiously optimistic about future improvements in sales trends.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

E-commerce Growth

The Tilly's TikTok shop has begun outperforming daily order volume through Amazon in mid-April and continues to grow.

Improvement in Comparable Net Sales

First quarter comparable net sales decreased by 7%, an improvement from the 11.2% decrease in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. Fiscal May saw a decrease of just 2.2%.

Positive Customer Engagement

In-person events such as the Mike Tyson and Travis Barker store appearances have been successful in increasing customer engagement.

Negative Updates

Decrease in Total Net Sales

Total net sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 were $107.6 million, a decrease of 7.1% from last year.

Net Loss Increase

Net loss increased to $22.2 million or $0.74 per share from $19.6 million or $0.65 per share last year.

Gross Margin Decline

Gross margin was 19.8% of net sales, down from 21% last year.

Store Closures

Ended the first quarter with 238 total stores, a net decrease of eight stores compared to a year ago, with plans to close additional stores in the coming quarters.

Company Guidance

During Tilly's fiscal 2025 first quarter earnings call, the company reported a 7% decrease in comparable net sales, which was an improvement from the 11.2% decrease in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. Total net sales were $107.6 million, a 7.1% decrease from last year, with physical stores and e-commerce sales decreasing by 7.4% and 5.8%, respectively. The gross margin was 19.8%, down from 21% the previous year, with product margins improving by 40 basis points. SG&A expenses decreased by $1.1 million to $44 million, including $1.2 million in non-cash asset impairment charges, resulting in a pretax loss of $22.3 million. For the second quarter, Tilly's projects net sales of $150 to $158 million and a potential net loss of $2.7 million to net income of $2 million, with a focus on continuing to improve product assortment and customer engagement.

Tilly's Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tilly's financial performance is under significant pressure, with declining revenues and profitability, increased leverage, and negative cash flows. The income statement shows a declining trend in revenue and profitability, while the balance sheet reveals moderate financial stability with concerning leverage levels. Cash flow analysis indicates liquidity pressures with negative operating and free cash flow.

Income Statement

Neutral

Tilly's income statement reveals a declining trend in revenue and profitability. The company has experienced negative revenue growth over the past three years, with revenues falling from $775 million in 2022 to $569 million in 2025. The gross profit margin has also decreased significantly, causing a deeper negative net profit margin. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operating challenges.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet shows a stable equity ratio of around 30%, but the debt-to-equity ratio has increased due to declining equity. The return on equity is negative, reflecting recent losses. The overall financial stability is moderate, with a concerning leverage level, though cash reserves provide some liquidity cushion.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, highlighting liquidity pressures. The company has struggled to convert net income into cash flow, which is concerning for future operations. Free cash flow growth is negative, and reliance on debt could increase if cash flows do not improve.

Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
569.45M	623.08M	672.28M	775.69M	531.33M
	Gross Profit
153.42M	165.66M	202.79M	276.66M	142.19M
	EBIT
-49.85M	-27.55M	11.45M	87.59M	-3.04M
	EBITDA
-37.08M	-18.15M	25.59M	104.43M	16.02M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-46.23M	-34.49M	9.68M	64.25M	-1.15M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
46.71M	95.05M	113.28M	139.23M	141.14M
	Total Assets
342.46M	429.55M	475.90M	504.82M	505.47M
	Total Debt
193.87M	231.59M	242.00M	247.00M	265.80M
	Net Debt
172.81M	184.56M	168.48M	204.80M	189.61M
	Total Liabilities
241.59M	284.68M	298.69M	330.11M	344.85M
	Stockholders Equity
100.87M	144.87M	177.21M	174.71M	160.62M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-50.24M	-20.69M	-16.54M	49.98M	30.43M
	Operating Cash Flow
-42.02M	-6.73M	-1.42M	63.40M	38.90M
	Investing Cash Flow
15.75M	-19.99M	42.80M	-45.33M	-3.20M
	Financing Cash Flow
294.00K	227.00K	-10.06M	-52.06M	-29.65M

Tilly's Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price1.46

Price Trends

50DMA

1.51

Negative

100DMA

2.62

Negative

200DMA

3.51

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.07

Negative

RSI

52.04

Neutral

STOCH

40.15

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLYS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.04, below the 50-day MA of 1.51, and below the 200-day MA of 3.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TLYS.

Tilly's Risk Analysis

Tilly's disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tilly's reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tilly's Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
URBN	81 Outperform	$6.50B	14.78	19.55%	―	8.38%	52.18%
BKE	75 Outperform	$2.20B	11.05	44.55%	3.32%	-1.08%	-8.20%
CTRN	68 Neutral	$272.09M	―	-29.52%	―	1.85%	-337.77%
AEO	64 Neutral	$1.80B	10.64	12.19%	4.81%	-0.95%	-10.51%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.93B	11.25	2.95%	3.88%	2.69%	-24.71%
ZUMZ	51 Neutral	$248.31M	―	-0.50%	―	1.57%	98.64%
TLYS	42 Neutral	$40.40M	―	-47.54%	―	-8.79%	-15.17%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TLYS

Tilly's

1.30

-4.50

-77.59%

AEO

American Eagle

10.14

-10.73

-51.41%

BKE

Buckle

42.70

8.80

25.96%

CTRN

Citi Trends

33.25

10.25

44.57%

URBN

Urban Outfitters

69.71

28.37

68.63%

ZUMZ

Zumiez

12.86

-6.44

-33.37%

Tilly's Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Tilly’s Expands Board with Industry Veteran Appointment

Positive

Jan 7, 2025

Tilly’s, Inc. announced the appointment of Michael Relich to its Board of Directors, expanding the board to seven members. With over 40 years in retail, especially in systems and information technology, and experience in leadership roles at major companies like PacSun and Guess, Relich is expected to bring valuable insights to Tilly’s, enhancing its strategic direction in the retail industry.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.