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Telstra Group (TLGPY) AI Stock Analysis

TLGPY

Telstra Group

(Other OTC:TLGPY)

Select Model
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:$17.50â–²(0.51% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/17/26

The score is driven mainly by stable-to-constructive fundamentals (strong cash generation and healthy margins) but tempered by rising leverage and weak recent revenue growth. Technicals are a notable drag with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is mixed (solid yield but a higher P/E). The earnings call adds moderate support via upbeat guidance and capital returns, partly offset by outage-related regulatory and cost risks.

Positive Factors
Strong Cash GenerationStrong operating and free cash flow supports network investment, dividends, buybacks and debt servicing. The improvement in free cash flow enhances financial flexibility, although year-to-year cash conversion remains variable.
Negative Factors
Rising LeverageHigher leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to weaker operating conditions, especially alongside elevated network and Aura spending. Buybacks may further shift the capital structure toward debt and less equity.

Telstra Group (TLGPY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%TLGPY+15.20%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$38.64B
Dividend Yield
4.17%
Average Volume (3M)
81.89K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
24.9
Beta (1Y)
0.19
Revenue Growth
3.90%
EPS Growth
10.64%
Country
US
Employees
29,334
Sector
Communication Services
Sector Strength
60
Industry
Telecommunications Services

Telstra Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Telstra Group Limited stands as a prominent provider of comprehensive telecommunications and digital information services, serving a diverse clientele that includes individual consumers, businesses, and government bodies, both within Australia and on...

How the Company Makes Money

Telstra primarily makes money by selling telecommunications connectivity and related services on recurring and usage-based plans. Key revenue streams include: (1) Mobile services: revenue from postpaid and prepaid mobile plans, data allowances, and o...

Telstra Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026(Q4-2026)|% Change Since:0.65%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a broadly positive financial and operational picture: solid underlying EBITDA and cash earnings growth, strong cash EPS growth (+14%), an increased dividend (+10.5%), completed and additional buybacks, continued heavy investment in networks and digital infrastructure, and clear progress on Aura and AI capability. These positives were tempered by a material July network outage (operational, regulatory and reputational risk), higher remediation and redundancy costs, some international and fixed-market headwinds, and a $200 million uplift in Aura project spend with lumpy cashflow timing. On balance, the company demonstrated growth momentum, disciplined capital allocation and strategic progress while acknowledging and actively addressing the key operational failure.

Positive Updates

Underlying EBITDA and Earnings Growth
Underlying EBITDAaL increased 4% to $8.3 billion; reported EBITDAaL up 3% to $8.2 billion. Net profit after tax up 2.7% to $2.4 billion and reported EPS up 5.3% to $0.199. Cash EPS rose 14% to $0.255.

Negative Updates

Significant July Network Outage
A major nationwide outage in July affected customers (including emergency calls). Initial root-cause identified as an undocumented design change and a missed software update. External expert investigation and ACMA investigation are ongoing; company processed ~30,000 customer contacts and ~ $1 million in credits to date.

Company Guidance

Telstra guided FY27 underlying EBITDA of $8.5–$8.8 billion, BAU CapEx of $3.35–$3.65 billion (with a lift in network investment), cash EBIT of $4.75–$4.95 billion and strategic investment of $0.2–$0.3 billion; this guidance sits against FY26 underlying EBITDAaL $8.3b (reported $8.2b), cash EPS $0.255 (up 14%), cash earnings $2.9b (up 12%), underlying ROIC 9% (up 0.5ppt), positive operating leverage of 2ppt, net debt ~1.9x, average cost of debt 4.8%, and a total FY26 dividend of $0.21 per share (final $0.105, 90.5% franked); the group also completed a $1.25b buyback, announced up to $1b more, expects total Aura strategic investment ~$1.8b to FY28 (over 8,500 km laid, six routes ready) with a mid‑teens IRR and ~9‑year cash payback.

Telstra Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and improving free cash flow supports the profile, with resilient profitability (EBITDA margins consistently above ~31% and net margin improving). Offsets are weak-to-negative revenue growth and a balance sheet that is trending more leveraged as debt rose and equity declined, increasing financial risk.

Income Statement

66Positive

Balance Sheet

54Neutral

Cash Flow

72Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMJun 2026Jun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue22.72B22.94B22.72B22.93B22.70B20.92B
Gross Profit9.00B11.49B14.51B10.53B5.75B12.69B
EBITDA8.97B9.04B8.58B7.53B7.86B7.29B
Net Income2.22B2.24B2.17B1.62B1.93B1.69B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets44.12B44.12B44.97B45.55B45.03B41.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.10B1.10B1.01B1.05B932.00M1.04B
Total Debt18.92B18.92B18.00B16.97B15.87B14.27B
Total Liabilities29.13B29.13B28.65B28.20B27.21B24.79B
Stockholders Equity12.58B12.58B13.90B14.92B15.41B15.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.52B4.95B3.45B1.99B2.37B3.73B
Operating Cash Flow7.10B7.55B7.32B7.05B6.24B6.82B
Investing Cash Flow-3.69B-3.47B-3.37B-4.99B-6.03B-3.40B
Financing Cash Flow-3.17B-3.95B-4.00B-1.94B-333.00M-3.97B

Telstra Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price17.41

Price Trends

50DMA16.89Positive
100DMA17.01Positive
200DMA17.41Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.13Negative
RSI61.63Neutral
STOCH83.40Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLGPY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.84, above the 50-day MA of 16.89, and below the 200-day MA of 17.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TLGPY.

Telstra Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

TLGPY against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
AMXAMX76Outperform$75.11B15.0622.21%2.42%15.97%39.45%
TMUSTMUS70Outperform$165.71B15.0619.86%2.61%9.28%-0.45%
VZVZ67Neutral$185.39B11.4115.73%6.29%1.38%-16.44%
TT63Neutral$144.23B11.5711.95%5.18%3.51%-39.83%
VODVOD63Neutral$36.97B-72.26-0.79%3.38%16.69%87.12%
Sector *60Neutral$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
TLGPYTLGPY59Neutral$38.53B24.8917.30%4.17%3.90%10.64%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%60%TLGPYAMXTVZVODTMUSDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
TLGPY and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
TLGPYTelstra Group Limited Adr17.412.1814.29%
AMXAmerica Movil S.a.b. De C.v.24.482.4110.90%
TAt&t Inc21.41-2.00-8.56%
VZVerizon Communications44.737.7220.87%
VODVodafone Group Plc15.884.9344.98%
TMUST Mobile US156.44-42.67-21.43%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026