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Telstra Group (TLGPY) AI Stock Analysis
Telstra Group
(Other OTC:TLGPY)
The score is driven mainly by stable-to-constructive fundamentals (strong cash generation and healthy margins) but tempered by rising leverage and weak recent revenue growth. Technicals are a notable drag with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is mixed (solid yield but a higher P/E). The earnings call adds moderate support via upbeat guidance and capital returns, partly offset by outage-related regulatory and cost risks.
Telstra Group (TLGPY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $38.64B
- Dividend Yield
- 4.17%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 81.89K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 24.9
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.19
- Revenue Growth
- 3.90%
- EPS Growth
- 10.64%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 29,334
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Sector Strength
- 60
- Industry
- Telecommunications Services
Telstra Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Telstra Group Limited stands as a prominent provider of comprehensive telecommunications and digital information services, serving a diverse clientele that includes individual consumers, businesses, and government bodies, both within Australia and on...
How the Company Makes Money
Telstra primarily makes money by selling telecommunications connectivity and related services on recurring and usage-based plans. Key revenue streams include: (1) Mobile services: revenue from postpaid and prepaid mobile plans, data allowances, and o...
Telstra Group Earnings Call Summary
The call presented a broadly positive financial and operational picture: solid underlying EBITDA and cash earnings growth, strong cash EPS growth (+14%), an increased dividend (+10.5%), completed and additional buybacks, continued heavy investment in networks and digital infrastructure, and clear progress on Aura and AI capability. These positives were tempered by a material July network outage (operational, regulatory and reputational risk), higher remediation and redundancy costs, some international and fixed-market headwinds, and a $200 million uplift in Aura project spend with lumpy cashflow timing. On balance, the company demonstrated growth momentum, disciplined capital allocation and strategic progress while acknowledging and actively addressing the key operational failure.
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Telstra guided FY27 underlying EBITDA of $8.5–$8.8 billion, BAU CapEx of $3.35–$3.65 billion (with a lift in network investment), cash EBIT of $4.75–$4.95 billion and strategic investment of $0.2–$0.3 billion; this guidance sits against FY26 underlying EBITDAaL $8.3b (reported $8.2b), cash EPS $0.255 (up 14%), cash earnings $2.9b (up 12%), underlying ROIC 9% (up 0.5ppt), positive operating leverage of 2ppt, net debt ~1.9x, average cost of debt 4.8%, and a total FY26 dividend of $0.21 per share (final $0.105, 90.5% franked); the group also completed a $1.25b buyback, announced up to $1b more, expects total Aura strategic investment ~$1.8b to FY28 (over 8,500 km laid, six routes ready) with a mid‑teens IRR and ~9‑year cash payback.
Telstra Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong and improving free cash flow supports the profile, with resilient profitability (EBITDA margins consistently above ~31% and net margin improving). Offsets are weak-to-negative revenue growth and a balance sheet that is trending more leveraged as debt rose and equity declined, increasing financial risk.
Income Statement
66PositiveBalance Sheet
54NeutralCash Flow
72Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 22.72B | 22.94B | 22.72B | 22.93B | 22.70B | 20.92B |
| Gross Profit | 9.00B | 11.49B | 14.51B | 10.53B | 5.75B | 12.69B |
| EBITDA | 8.97B | 9.04B | 8.58B | 7.53B | 7.86B | 7.29B |
| Net Income | 2.22B | 2.24B | 2.17B | 1.62B | 1.93B | 1.69B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 44.12B | 44.12B | 44.97B | 45.55B | 45.03B | 41.63B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.10B | 1.10B | 1.01B | 1.05B | 932.00M | 1.04B |
| Total Debt | 18.92B | 18.92B | 18.00B | 16.97B | 15.87B | 14.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 29.13B | 29.13B | 28.65B | 28.20B | 27.21B | 24.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.58B | 12.58B | 13.90B | 14.92B | 15.41B | 15.35B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.52B | 4.95B | 3.45B | 1.99B | 2.37B | 3.73B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.10B | 7.55B | 7.32B | 7.05B | 6.24B | 6.82B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.69B | -3.47B | -3.37B | -4.99B | -6.03B | -3.40B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.17B | -3.95B | -4.00B | -1.94B | -333.00M | -3.97B |
Telstra Group Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLGPY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.84, above the 50-day MA of 16.89, and below the 200-day MA of 17.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TLGPY.
Telstra Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
AMX76Outperform
TMUS70Outperform
VZ67Neutral
T63Neutral
VOD63Neutral- TLGPY59Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMX | 76Outperform | $75.11B | 15.06 | 22.21% | 2.42% | 15.97% | 39.45% |
| TMUS | 70Outperform | $165.71B | 15.06 | 19.86% | 2.61% | 9.28% | -0.45% |
| VZ | 67Neutral | $185.39B | 11.41 | 15.73% | 6.29% | 1.38% | -16.44% |
| T | 63Neutral | $144.23B | 11.57 | 11.95% | 5.18% | 3.51% | -39.83% |
| VOD | 63Neutral | $36.97B | -72.26 | -0.79% | 3.38% | 16.69% | 87.12% |
| Sector * | 60Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% |
| TLGPY | 59Neutral | $38.53B | 24.89 | 17.30% | 4.17% | 3.90% | 10.64% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLGPY | Telstra Group Limited Adr | 17.41 | 2.18 | 14.29% | |
| AMX | America Movil S.a.b. De C.v. | 24.48 | 2.41 | 10.90% | |
| T | At&t Inc | 21.41 | -2.00 | -8.56% | |
| VZ | Verizon Communications | 44.73 | 7.72 | 20.87% | |
| VOD | Vodafone Group Plc | 15.88 | 4.93 | 44.98% | |
| TMUS | T Mobile US | 156.44 | -42.67 | -21.43% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026