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Telstra Group
(OTC:TLGPY)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
â–²(6.64% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven mainly by stable-to-constructive fundamentals (strong cash generation and healthy margins) but tempered by rising leverage and weak recent revenue growth. Technicals are a notable drag with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is mixed (solid yield but a higher P/E). The earnings call adds moderate support via upbeat guidance and capital returns, partly offset by outage-related regulatory and cost risks.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Strong operating and free cash flow supports network investment, dividends, buybacks and debt servicing. The improvement in free cash flow enhances financial flexibility, although year-to-year cash conversion remains variable.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to weaker operating conditions, especially alongside elevated network and Aura spending. Buybacks may further shift the capital structure toward debt and less equity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Strong operating and free cash flow supports network investment, dividends, buybacks and debt servicing. The improvement in free cash flow enhances financial flexibility, although year-to-year cash conversion remains variable.
Read all positive factors
Telstra Group (TLGPY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$36.49B
Dividend Yield4.1%
Average Volume (3M)6.43K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.2
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth3.90%
EPS Growth10.64%
CountryUS
Employees29,334
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.98
Shares Outstanding2,227,827,100
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume6,427
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.82
Price to Book (P/B)4.54
Price to Sales (P/S)2.49
P/FCF Ratio11.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.88B
Telstra Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Telstra Group Limited stands as a prominent provider of comprehensive telecommunications and digital information services, serving a diverse clientele that includes individual consumers, businesses, and government bodies, both within Australia and...
How the Company Makes Money
Telstra primarily makes money by selling telecommunications connectivity and related services on recurring and usage-based plans. Key revenue streams include: (1) Mobile services: revenue from postpaid and prepaid mobile plans, data allowances, an...
Telstra Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive financial and operational picture: solid underlying EBITDA and cash earnings growth, strong cash EPS growth (+14%), an increased dividend (+10.5%), completed and additional buybacks, continued heavy investment in networks and digital infrastructure, and clear progress on Aura and AI capability. These positives were tempered by a material July network outage (operational, regulatory and reputational risk), higher remediation and redundancy costs, some international and fixed-market headwinds, and a $200 million uplift in Aura project spend with lumpy cashflow timing. On balance, the company demonstrated growth momentum, disciplined capital allocation and strategic progress while acknowledging and actively addressing the key operational failure.Positive Updates
Underlying EBITDA and Earnings Growth
Underlying EBITDAaL increased 4% to $8.3 billion; reported EBITDAaL up 3% to $8.2 billion. Net profit after tax up 2.7% to $2.4 billion and reported EPS up 5.3% to $0.199. Cash EPS rose 14% to $0.255.
Negative Updates
Significant July Network Outage
A major nationwide outage in July affected customers (including emergency calls). Initial root-cause identified as an undocumented design change and a missed software update. External expert investigation and ACMA investigation are ongoing; company processed ~30,000 customer contacts and ~ $1 million in credits to date.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Underlying EBITDA and Earnings Growth
Underlying EBITDAaL increased 4% to $8.3 billion; reported EBITDAaL up 3% to $8.2 billion. Net profit after tax up 2.7% to $2.4 billion and reported EPS up 5.3% to $0.199. Cash EPS rose 14% to $0.255.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Telstra guided FY27 underlying EBITDA of $8.5–$8.8 billion, BAU CapEx of $3.35–$3.65 billion (with a lift in network investment), cash EBIT of $4.75–$4.95 billion and strategic investment of $0.2–$0.3 billion; this guidance sits against FY26 underlying EBITDAaL $8.3b (reported $8.2b), cash EPS $0.255 (up 14%), cash earnings $2.9b (up 12%), underlying ROIC 9% (up 0.5ppt), positive operating leverage of 2ppt, net debt ~1.9x, average cost of debt 4.8%, and a total FY26 dividend of $0.21 per share (final $0.105, 90.5% franked); the group also completed a $1.25b buyback, announced up to $1b more, expects total Aura strategic investment ~$1.8b to FY28 (over 8,500 km laid, six routes ready) with a mid‑teens IRR and ~9‑year cash payback.Telstra Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 22.94B | 22.72B | 22.93B | 22.70B | 20.92B |
| Gross Profit | 11.49B | 14.51B | 10.53B | 5.75B | 12.69B |
| EBITDA | 7.12B | 8.58B | 7.53B | 7.86B | 7.29B |
| Net Income | 2.24B | 2.17B | 1.62B | 1.93B | 1.69B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 44.12B | 44.97B | 45.55B | 45.03B | 41.63B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.18B | 1.01B | 1.05B | 932.00M | 1.04B |
| Total Debt | 18.92B | 18.00B | 16.97B | 15.87B | 14.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 29.13B | 28.65B | 28.20B | 27.21B | 24.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.58B | 13.90B | 14.92B | 15.41B | 15.35B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.95B | 3.45B | 1.99B | 2.37B | 3.73B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.55B | 7.32B | 7.05B | 6.24B | 6.82B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.47B | -3.37B | -4.99B | -6.03B | -3.40B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.95B | -4.00B | -1.94B | -333.00M | -3.97B |
Telstra Group Technical Analysis
Negative
16.41
Price Trends
16.99
Negative
17.74
Negative
17.09
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.22
Positive
43.06
Neutral
-45.93
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLGPY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.85, below the 50-day MA of 16.99, and below the 200-day MA of 17.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of -45.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TLGPY.
Telstra Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $174.26B | 8.58 | 19.48% | 4.60% | 2.63% | 72.35% | |
73 Outperform | $190.67B | 18.93 | 18.22% | 2.19% | 9.68% | -10.02% | |
69 Neutral | $205.37B | 13.05 | 15.52% | 6.03% | 1.38% | -10.78% | |
67 Neutral | $71.76B | 13.20 | 21.99% | 2.28% | 13.40% | 75.68% | |
63 Neutral | $36.63B | -70.22 | -0.79% | 3.59% | 16.69% | 87.12% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | $36.49B | 23.18 | 17.30% | 3.88% | 3.90% | 10.64% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TLGPY
Telstra Group
16.56
1.19
7.75%
AMX
America Movil
23.18
3.67
18.83%
T
AT&T
26.01
-1.96
-7.02%
VZ
Verizon
50.10
8.70
21.01%
VOD
Vodafone
16.04
4.53
39.34%
TMUS
T Mobile US
181.37
-65.41
-26.50%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.