Timken Company AI Stock Analysis
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Timken Company (TKR) AI Stock Analysis
Timken Company
(NYSE:TKR)
The score is supported most by the earnings call’s upbeat guidance and execution (raised FY2026 EPS outlook, margin expansion, strong cash flow and de-leveraging). This is partially offset by weak technicals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD) and a less attractive valuation profile (P/E 26.13 with a modest 1.33% yield). Financial performance remains solid overall, but margin compression versus prior years keeps the score from being higher.
Timken Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Adjusted EBITDA by SegmentMeasures operating profitability across Timken’s business segments before certain expenses, helping investors compare performance, assess margins, and identify which operations contribute most to earnings.
Timken’s profit engine is shifting toward Industrial Motion, which has accelerated into record performance and is now the clearest source of incremental margin expansion. Engineered Bearings remains a durable earnings base, recovering from seasonal lows and holding profitability despite only modest demand improvement. The apparent disappearance of Mobile Industries and Process Industries reflects segment reclassification rather than an operating collapse. Management’s raised outlook supports further expansion, though aerospace investments, inflation, solar weakness, and the belts divestiture could temper near-term gains.
The FlyTimken Company (TKR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $7.59B
- Dividend Yield
- 1.28%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 913.13K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 27.1
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.19
- Revenue Growth
- 5.95%
- EPS Growth
- -4.17%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 19,000
- Sector
- Industrials
- Sector Strength
- 63
- Industry
- Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
Timken Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Timken Company operates globally, specializing in the design, manufacturing, and management of advanced bearings and power transmission solutions. Its business activities are organized into two main divisions: Mobile Industries and Process Indust...
How the Company Makes Money
Timken primarily makes money by selling engineered bearings and related components, along with industrial motion and power transmission products, to customers worldwide. Its revenue model is largely product-sales driven: (1) OEM sales, where Timken s...
Timken Company Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive overall. Timken reported solid revenue growth, 20% adjusted EPS growth, margin expansion, strong cash generation, improved leverage, a raised 2026 EPS outlook, and a constructive mid-single-digit organic growth outlook for 2027. Management also described meaningful progress on its Elevate to Outperform strategy, 80/20 program, One Timken operating model, and growth initiatives in automation, robotics, aerospace, and defense. These positives outweighed challenges from China wind weakness, EMEA softness, negative mix, inflationary costs, automotive OE exits, and capacity constraints.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For full year 2026, Timken increased adjusted earnings per share guidance to $6.35-$6.50, expects total revenue to increase approximately 5.5%, reaffirmed organic revenue growth of 3.5% at the midpoint, estimates currency translation to contribute around 1.25% to sales, expects M&A to add 0.75% to full-year revenue on a net basis, and expects consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin to be in the mid-18% range at the midpoint; free cash flow guidance remains $375 million-$400 million. While it is still early and without providing a formal outlook, the company currently expects organic sales to increase by mid-single digits during 2027, with more than 200 basis points of Industrial Motion EBITDA margin improvement from the belts divestiture in 2027, including 60 to 70 basis points from belts.
Timken Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are generally healthy with improving leverage and solid cash generation. The main offset is softer profitability versus recent years, with TTM net and operating margins below 2024–2025 levels despite continued positive earnings.
Income Statement
66PositiveBalance Sheet
69PositiveCash Flow
74Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.81B | 4.58B | 4.57B | 4.77B | 4.50B | 4.13B |
| Gross Profit | 1.40B | 1.31B | 1.45B | 1.52B | 1.34B | 1.16B |
| EBITDA | 676.90M | 746.10M | 834.30M | 915.10M | 838.20M | 714.60M |
| Net Income | 283.20M | 288.40M | 352.70M | 394.10M | 407.40M | 369.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.70B | 6.68B | 6.41B | 6.54B | 5.77B | 5.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 410.20M | 386.50M | 389.50M | 450.90M | 379.90M | 314.80M |
| Total Debt | 2.06B | 2.16B | 2.26B | 2.58B | 2.12B | 1.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.34B | 3.33B | 3.43B | 3.84B | 3.42B | 2.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.19B | 3.18B | 2.83B | 2.58B | 2.27B | 2.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 443.10M | 406.10M | 305.70M | 357.40M | 285.40M | 239.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 585.80M | 554.30M | 475.70M | 545.20M | 463.80M | 387.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -236.90M | -148.30M | -304.60M | -806.50M | -573.30M | -173.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -385.90M | -437.10M | -194.80M | 347.10M | 206.80M | -269.30M |
Timken Company Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 110.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 110.67, below the 50-day MA of 114.87, and below the 200-day MA of 117.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TKR.
Timken Company Risk Analysis
Timken Company disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Timken Company reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksTimken Company Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
RBC75Outperform
LECO73Outperform
SWK72.4Outperform
SNA70Outperform- TKR67Neutral
KMT66Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC | 75Outperform | $15.54B | 44.00 | 10.39% | ― | 17.42% | 36.26% |
| LECO | 73Outperform | $15.40B | 27.39 | 37.78% | 1.10% | 11.02% | 11.74% |
| SWK | 72Outperform | $17.31B | 20.72 | 9.39% | 2.88% | 0.38% | 93.48% |
| SNA | 70Outperform | $19.25B | 19.19 | 16.84% | 2.60% | 2.93% | 0.65% |
| TKR | 67Neutral | $7.49B | 27.10 | 8.86% | 1.28% | 5.95% | -4.17% |
| KMT | 66Neutral | $1.85B | 3.18 | 38.97% | 3.25% | 32.48% | 529.12% |
| Sector * | 63Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKR | Timken | 110.56 | 33.76 | 43.95% | |
| KMT | Kennametal Inc | 24.59 | -2.31 | -8.58% | |
| LECO | Lincoln Electric | 288.14 | 63.80 | 28.44% | |
| RBC | Rbc Bearings | 494.56 | 63.01 | 14.60% | |
| SNA | Snap-on Inc | 374.75 | 47.44 | 14.49% | |
| SWK | Stanley Black & Decker | 115.62 | 50.99 | 78.90% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026