Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS (TKGBY) AI Stock Analysis

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Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS

(Other OTC:TKGBY)

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Rating:70Outperform

Price Target:$3.50▲(15.28% Upside)

Action:upgraded

Date:11/03/26

Overall score reflects strong valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and solid financial performance supported by profitability and cash generation. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and earnings-call risks around higher cost of risk and asset-quality pressure despite generally constructive guidance.

Positive Factors

Strong earnings and returnsStrong net income growth and a high return on equity indicate that the bank is converting its lending, funding and fee franchises into substantial earnings. This provides internal capital generation to support balance-sheet expansion, absorb credit costs and sustain investment over the coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Deteriorating asset qualityRising Stage-2 exposures and consumer-led NPL inflows point to broader credit deterioration before losses are fully recognized. Higher provisioning can weaken earnings, while migration into later-stage delinquency would pressure capital generation and reduce the profitability benefit from loan growth.

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS (TKGBY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $12.81B
Dividend Yield: 4.26%
Average Volume (3M): 4,100
Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.2
Beta (1Y): 0.45
Revenue Growth: 5.40%
EPS Growth: -4.78%
Country: US
Employees: 20,215
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Banks - Regional

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (TGB), headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey, is a comprehensive financial institution that has been providing a wide array of banking and financial services since its founding in 1946. The bank offers a diverse range of depo...

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:18.73%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 03, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was predominantly positive. Garanti BBVA reported 16% year-over-year net income growth, a 27.5% ROE, strong net interest income and fee momentum, improving margins, better-than-expected operating expenses, solid capital and liquidity, and continued market-share gains. These positives were partly offset by higher cost of risk, worsening retail and SME asset-quality trends, persistent inflation and interest-rate risks, and the loss of the real ROE target. Management nevertheless maintained its nominal ROE outlook and described the bank as well positioned for continued growth.

Positive Updates

Strong Net Income and Return on Equity

Garanti BBVA generated TRY 98 billion in net income during the first nine months of 2026, up 16% year-over-year, with a 27.5% return on equity. A strong recovery in net interest income and sustained fee momentum more than offset higher provisioning costs.

Negative Updates

Macro Downside and Inflation Risks

The bank maintained its year-end GDP growth forecast at 3% but cited downside risk from high energy prices and weaker-than-expected economic activity. It maintained a year-end inflation forecast of 30%, with energy prices as the main upside risk, and expects inflation to remain sticky around 30% until late in the first quarter of 2027.

Company Guidance

Management maintained its year-end GDP growth forecast at 3% with downside risk, year-end inflation forecast at 30% with energy prices remaining the main upside risk, and estimated that the current account deficit may widen only $10 billion to $15 billion in the fourth quarter; inflation is likely to stay sticky around 30% until late first quarter of '27. Lending growth is progressing in line with guidance, fee growth performed in line with expectations, net interest margin is now well positioned to deliver the initial guidance with potential upside depending on interest rate developments, and cost of risk is expected to finish slightly above initial guidance, with another 10% increase or less going forward, while management said it is not at peak but near the peak. OpEx growth is expected to remain below the initially guided range; the bank no longer expects to meet its real ROE targets but remains well positioned to deliver its nominal ROE guidance. For '27, management expects inflation to be between 25% to 30%, interest rates between 30% to 35%, and at least 4%, 5% real rate is required.

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid with good revenue growth and strong absolute profitability, plus strong recent operating and free cash flow. Offsetting risks are margin compression versus prior years, meaningful leverage increase (higher debt-to-equity), and historical cash-flow volatility.

Income Statement

74Positive

Balance Sheet

66Positive

Cash Flow

70Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.22T	988.39B	287.17B	346.52B	177.72B	85.59B
Gross Profit	510.42B	410.34B	287.17B	199.32B	133.01B	61.46B
EBITDA	181.01B	160.63B	0	109.31B	78.23B	19.35B
Net Income	123.06B	109.82B	91.24B	86.37B	58.29B	13.47B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.60T	4.55T	3.00T	2.20T	1.30T	850.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	881.57B	31.82B	591.84B	474.34B	200.82B	182.89B
Total Debt	741.73B	431.79B	223.97B	150.11B	104.47B	97.20B
Total Liabilities	5.07T	4.10T	2.67T	1.96T	1.15T	770.17B
Stockholders Equity	520.72B	444.07B	329.79B	244.70B	152.64B	79.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	227.84B	184.76B	-155.25B	186.17B	43.63B	31.02B
Operating Cash Flow	236.83B	196.04B	-145.82B	191.28B	45.76B	32.31B
Investing Cash Flow	-25.74B	-63.06B	-46.85B	-81.76B	-55.25B	-12.41B
Financing Cash Flow	137.86B	222.25B	95.27B	10.45B	25.67B	29.34B

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price3.04

Price Trends

50DMA2.69Positive

100DMA2.72Positive

200DMA2.89Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.10Negative

RSI70.15Negative

STOCH95.50Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKGBY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.72, above the 50-day MA of 2.69, and above the 200-day MA of 2.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.15 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.50 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TKGBY.

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

TKGBY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TKGBY	70Outperform	$12.91B	5.21	25.89%	4.26%	5.40%	-4.78%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
BSAC	61Neutral	$15.15B	13.78	22.03%	4.63%	17.78%	9.86%
BMA	57Neutral	$4.32B	13.92	7.73%	8.83%	4.03%	-24.70%
BBAR	56Neutral	$2.35B	11.97	8.15%	4.34%	5.91%	-32.85%
BSBR	51Neutral	$18.21B	34.57	10.09%	2.94%	18.27%	16.65%
GGAL	51Neutral	$5.17B	44.90	2.13%	5.69%	3.21%	-89.45%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TKGBY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
TKGBY	Turkiye Garanti Bankasi	3.04	0.07	2.26%
BMA	Banco Macro	55.23	-24.01	-30.30%
BSBR	Banco Santander Brasil SA	5.02	-1.04	-17.18%
BSAC	Banco Santander-Chile	31.97	3.84	13.67%
BBAR	Banco Bbva Argentina	10.35	-4.92	-32.21%
GGAL	Grupo Financiero Galicia	29.04	-22.03	-43.14%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 03, 2026

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS AI Stock Analysis