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Triumph Financial (TFIN)
NASDAQ:TFIN

Triumph Financial (TFIN) AI Stock Analysis

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Triumph Financial

(NASDAQ:TFIN)

57Neutral
Triumph Financial's overall score of 57 reflects a mixed performance. A stable balance sheet and strong cash flows are positives, but these are countered by operational and profitability challenges. Technical indicators suggest bearish sentiment, while a high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation. The earnings call provides some optimism for future revenue growth, yet significant market headwinds remain a concern.

Triumph Financial (TFIN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Triumph Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTriumph Financial (TFIN) is a financial services company operating in the banking sector. It provides a range of financial products and services, including commercial and industrial loans, factoring services, equipment financing, and treasury management solutions to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and other business customers. Triumph Financial aims to support businesses in managing their financial needs through a comprehensive suite of tailored financial solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyTriumph Financial makes money primarily through the interest and fees charged on its lending products, such as commercial loans and equipment financing. The company also generates significant revenue from its factoring services, where it purchases accounts receivable from businesses at a discount, providing them with immediate cash flow. Additionally, Triumph Financial earns income from treasury management services, which include various financial management tools and services that help businesses manage their daily financial operations efficiently. Key partnerships with other financial institutions and business networks further enhance its ability to reach a broader customer base and increase its revenue streams.

Triumph Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Triumph Financial shows stability in its balance sheet with moderate leverage and a stable equity base. However, the income statement indicates operational challenges with declining revenue and profitability pressures. Cash flows are strong, reflecting efficient cash management despite increased capital expenditures.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Triumph Financial's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin remains at 100%, which is typical for banks due to the nature of their revenue recognition. However, the net profit margin for TTM is only 2.56%, indicating pressure on profitability. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a recent decline from the previous year. The EBIT margin is negative for TTM at -11.47%, reflecting operational challenges, although the EBITDA margin is slightly positive at 2.71%.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet of Triumph Financial is relatively strong with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35, indicating moderate leverage for a regional bank. The equity ratio stands at 14.27% for TTM, showcasing a stable capital structure. ROE for the TTM is 1.25%, which is low, suggesting challenges in generating returns on equity despite a solid equity base.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis indicates a positive but modest free cash flow growth rate in the latest period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.23 for TTM, highlighting robust cash flow generation relative to earnings. Free cash flow to net income ratio is 7.21, pointing to strong free cash flow relative to profits, although capital expenditures have increased, impacting free cash flow growth.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
415.57M473.10M484.56M423.63M335.36M
Gross Profit
415.57M473.10M484.56M423.63M335.36M
EBIT
20.47M52.81M155.75M144.95M84.71M
EBITDA
0.0078.07M162.23M167.87M103.76M
Net Income Common Stockholders
16.09M41.08M102.31M112.97M64.02M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
455.40M286.63M662.69M565.60M538.70M
Total Assets
5.95B5.35B5.33B5.96B5.94B
Total Debt
142.01M405.42M178.96M354.70M424.44M
Net Debt
-188.10M118.78M-229.22M-28.48M110.05M
Total Liabilities
5.06B4.48B4.44B354.70M424.44M
Stockholders Equity
890.92M864.40M888.97M858.86M726.78M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-28.59M16.24M63.58M122.60M79.75M
Operating Cash Flow
58.57M43.20M74.49M136.96M97.33M
Investing Cash Flow
-590.03M-112.69M672.38M77.66M-774.74M
Financing Cash Flow
574.94M-52.05M-721.87M-145.83M793.92M

Triumph Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price54.50
Price Trends
50DMA
57.89
Negative
100DMA
71.94
Negative
200DMA
79.65
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.26
Negative
RSI
50.89
Neutral
STOCH
89.25
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TFIN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 54.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.15, below the 50-day MA of 57.89, and below the 200-day MA of 79.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.25 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TFIN.

Triumph Financial Risk Analysis

Triumph Financial disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Triumph Financial reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Triumph Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$1.31B11.767.07%3.33%1.52%19.00%
71
Outperform
$1.17B8.4515.54%3.55%-7.38%-15.58%
68
Neutral
$1.29B12.854.44%5.57%-11.99%
68
Neutral
$1.30B11.579.38%3.33%3.01%4.55%
CCCCB
66
Neutral
$1.22B24.0312.78%16.62%18.72%
64
Neutral
$12.64B9.748.05%17044.60%12.66%-4.62%
57
Neutral
$1.28B148.341.35%2.37%-72.01%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TFIN
Triumph Financial
54.50
-18.52
-25.36%
HOPE
Hope Bancorp
10.06
-0.28
-2.71%
TCBK
Trico Bancshares
39.65
3.64
10.11%
WABC
Westamerica Bancorporation
49.61
1.55
3.23%
VBTX
Veritex
24.00
4.17
21.03%
CCB
Coastal Financial
81.34
40.05
97.00%

Triumph Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 16, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 9.11%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. There are clear strategic opportunities for revenue growth, particularly in the Payments segment and through client repricing. However, these are balanced by significant market headwinds and credit challenges in the equipment finance portfolio. The company remains optimistic about the back half of the year, but uncertainty remains high.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Payments Segment and Credit Quality Improvement
Almost every metric reported improved in our transportation businesses, especially in the Payments segment. Credit quality also improved, setting the company up for profitable revenue growth despite market conditions.
Revenue Growth Opportunities
There are significant opportunities for revenue growth in the Payments segment through Load Pay, Green Screens, and existing customer upgrades. The company is also seeing large trucking companies returning to the factoring market, which presents additional revenue opportunities.
Successful Client Repricing
The company has been successful in repricing legacy clients to new, more profitable rates, demonstrating the market's acceptance of the company's updated pricing models.
Negative Updates
Freight Market Headwinds
The transportation market is suffering from persistent headwinds, affecting headline earnings numbers and creating uncertainty in revenue projections.
Potential Revenue Noise in Second Quarter
The second quarter is likely to have a tremendous amount of noise due to potential deals like Green Screens, making it difficult to have a clear sightline to revenue until later in the year.
Credit Stress in Equipment Finance Portfolio
There is ongoing credit stress in the equipment finance portfolio due to the freight recession. The company is only about 40% through working through these credits.
Company Guidance
During the Triumph first-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance amidst challenging market conditions, emphasizing its strategic focus on growing revenue despite persistent freight headwinds. Aaron Graft highlighted improvements across several key performance indicators (KPIs) in the transportation and payments segments, with particular success in enhancing credit quality. The company is poised to capitalize on opportunities such as Load Pay and Green Screens, anticipating significant revenue contributions from these areas. Triumph aims to sustain revenue growth through existing customer base monetization, leveraging relationships like C.H. Robinson, and expanding its presence in the factoring market. With revenue from transportation businesses currently at $206 million, the company expects material increases by year-end. Additionally, Triumph is progressing in upgrading clients to its next-gen audit platform, capturing less than 50% of the opportunity so far, with expectations for further revenue growth. Despite economic uncertainties, the company remains confident in managing credit risks and is focused on delivering long-term shareholder value through strategic investments over share buybacks.

Triumph Financial Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Triumph Financial Shareholders Vote on Key Matters
Neutral
Apr 22, 2025

Triumph Financial, Inc. held its Annual Meeting where shareholders voted on several key matters. The meeting included the election of directors for a one-year term, approval of executive compensation, the frequency of future say-on-pay votes, the Fourth Amendment to the 2014 Omnibus Incentive Plan, and the ratification of Crowe LLP as the independent auditor. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and strategic planning efforts, potentially impacting its operational and financial direction.

Spark’s Take on TFIN Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TFIN is a Neutral.

Triumph Financial’s overall score of 57 reflects a mixed performance. A stable balance sheet and strong cash flows are positives, but these are countered by operational and profitability challenges. Technical indicators suggest bearish sentiment, while a high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation. The earnings call provides some optimism for future revenue growth, yet significant market headwinds remain a concern.

To see Spark’s full report on TFIN stock, click here.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.