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Triumph Financial
(NYSE:TFIN)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$66.00
▼(-8.15% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (better revenue growth, profitability, and more conservative leverage in 2026 TTM) and a constructive earnings-call outlook centered on expense efficiencies and operating progress. These positives are tempered by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD), a relatively high P/E valuation without a provided common dividend yield, and ongoing macro/operational uncertainties cited on the call (freight demand, intelligence execution, and credit noise).
Positive Factors
Revenue and margin recovery
The return to revenue growth alongside materially higher profitability indicates improving operating performance rather than relying solely on balance-sheet expansion. If sustained, stronger margins can support reinvestment, absorb industry volatility, and improve the company’s earnings capacity over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability and cash-flow volatility
The recovery in current results has not yet demonstrated consistent durability because profitability remains below earlier highs and cash flow has fluctuated. This history suggests earnings are sensitive to operating conditions, making future returns and reinvestment capacity less predictable than the latest improvement implies.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin recovery
The return to revenue growth alongside materially higher profitability indicates improving operating performance rather than relying solely on balance-sheet expansion. If sustained, stronger margins can support reinvestment, absorb industry volatility, and improve the company’s earnings capacity over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Triumph Financial (TFIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.51B
Dividend Yield22.1%
Average Volume (3M)266.44K
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.1
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth12.64%
EPS Growth586.98%
CountryUS
Employees1,442
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.97
Shares Outstanding23,921,510
10 Day Avg. Volume311,045
30 Day Avg. Volume266,440
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.94
Price to Book (P/B)1.57
Price to Sales (P/S)2.87
P/FCF Ratio29.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$75.60Price Target Upside5.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$480.00M
Triumph Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Triumph Financial, Inc., a financial technology enterprise founded in 1981 and based in Dallas, Texas, centers its operations on payments, factoring, and banking. The company, which rebranded from Triumph Bancorp, Inc. in December 2022, executes i...
How the Company Makes Money
Triumph Financial makes money primarily through a mix of (1) banking spread income and fees and (2) freight-transaction-related payments and factoring revenue. On the banking side, it generates net interest income by earning interest on loans (inc...
Triumph Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 27, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive, with strong operating progress, expanding factoring and payments margins, continued LoadPay adoption, factoring customer growth, improved funding mix, and a clear 2027 efficiency and profitability framework. These positives were tempered by uncertain freight demand, persistent driver-supply constraints, the slower-than-expected intelligence rollout and customer attrition, funding costs, and credit-related noise.Positive Updates
Strong Third-Quarter Operating Progress
Management described the quarter as one of strong operating progress: transportation revenue grew materially, margins expanded in factoring and payments, and LoadPay continued to gain scale.
Negative Updates
Funding Costs Reduce Invoice-Price Contribution
Of the $12 million of revenue associated with a $100 change in average invoice price, approximately $8.5 million is expected to become pre-tax income because roughly one-quarter of factoring revenue is given back to incremental funding costs.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Third-Quarter Operating Progress
Management described the quarter as one of strong operating progress: transportation revenue grew materially, margins expanded in factoring and payments, and LoadPay continued to gain scale.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management established a sub-$400 million expense target for 2027, requiring at least $20 million of efficiencies from the current run rate, with those efficiencies expected much sooner than the back half of next year; payments volume growth at high single digits was described as very attainable, while revenue per invoice should see much slower growth going forward; LoadPay could move from 1%-2% to 5%-10% over the course of the next couple of years, with accounts expected to exit this year right around 14,000 and run at a very similar pace to the remainder of 2027, and the company expects to run at the same pace for the next couple of quarters; the 2027 framework includes low double-digit transportation revenue, with 10% transportation growth used for the exercise, and an earnings bridge of between 1% and 1.2% ROA if invoices remain flat, while factoring is running at an over 5% pre-tax ROA; LoadPay revenue per account remains targeted at north of $1,200 in revenue on an annualized basis per account for accounts open over 120 days, and Q4 guidance was $100 million.Triumph Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 524.03M | 516.08M | 487.63M | 471.85M | 502.94M | 442.00M |
| Gross Profit | 428.27M | 433.05M | 397.10M | 406.05M | 477.63M | 432.46M |
| EBITDA | 128.31M | 70.25M | 53.82M | 82.52M | 166.29M | 167.87M |
| Net Income | 50.37M | 25.36M | 16.09M | 41.08M | 102.31M | 112.97M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.68B | 6.38B | 5.95B | 5.35B | 5.33B | 5.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.24B | 612.75M | 416.91M | 586.28M | 662.69M | 565.60M |
| Total Debt | 113.49M | 392.87M | 142.01M | 405.42M | 179.30M | 356.81M |
| Total Liabilities | 6.70B | 5.44B | 5.06B | 4.48B | 4.44B | 5.10B |
| Stockholders Equity | 978.56M | 941.77M | 890.92M | 864.40M | 888.97M | 858.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 87.33M | 50.62M | -28.59M | 16.24M | 63.58M | 122.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 113.27M | 67.06M | 58.57M | 60.06M | 80.75M | 136.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -457.80M | -525.48M | -590.03M | -129.56M | 666.11M | 77.66M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.23B | 376.77M | 574.94M | -52.05M | -721.87M | -145.83M |
Triumph Financial Technical Analysis
Negative
71.86
Price Trends
65.45
Negative
70.91
Negative
67.33
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.48
Negative
54.94
Neutral
86.00
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TFIN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 71.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.15, above the 50-day MA of 65.45, and above the 200-day MA of 67.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.00 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TFIN.
Triumph Financial Risk Analysis
Triumph Financial disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Triumph Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Triumph Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $2.90B | 10.06 | 13.59% | ― | 8.29% | 67.64% | |
69 Neutral | $1.63B | 9.58 | 20.79% | 0.26% | -0.51% | 3.26% | |
69 Neutral | $2.07B | 9.43 | 32.32% | ― | 2.65% | 13.98% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $330.15M | 4.82 | 16.34% | 6.65% | 8.04% | 10.59% | |
63 Neutral | $1.61B | 12.21 | 10.67% | 0.35% | 8.59% | 88.76% | |
62 Neutral | $1.51B | 32.15 | 5.25% | 22.10% | 12.64% | 586.98% |
* Financial Sector Average
TFIN
Triumph Financial
63.99
5.27
8.97%
CASH
Pathward Financial
76.39
7.37
10.68%
NEWT
Newtek Business
11.52
1.35
13.27%
CUBI
Customers Bancorp
86.53
18.32
26.86%
TBBK
Bancorp
51.03
-28.14
-35.54%
LOB
Live Oak Bancshares
34.74
2.56
7.95%
Triumph Financial Corporate Events
Dividends
Triumph Financial Declares Quarterly Series C Preferred Dividend
Positive
Aug 31, 2026
On August 31, 2026, Triumph Financial’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $17.81 per share on its 7.125% Series C Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, equivalent to $0.44525 per NYSE-listed depositary share. The div...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.