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Grupo Supervielle SA
(NYSE:SUPV)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▼(-10.71% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/05/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses, declining revenue, negative operating/free cash flow, and higher leverage). Technicals provide a partial offset with price above key moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation is mixed due to a negative P/E and only moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cost reduction and capital buffer
A 17% workforce reduction with estimated AR$42bn annualized personnel savings creates a structurally leaner cost base. Coupled with a CET1 ratio of 14.2%, this improves capital resilience and supports sustainable earnings recovery and regulatory compliance over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Recent loss-making and weak cash flow
The swing from prior positive cash generation to deep operating and free cash outflows materially weakens financial flexibility. Persistent cash burn undermines the bank's ability to fund lending, absorb shocks, or invest in strategic initiatives without relying on external financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cost reduction and capital buffer
A 17% workforce reduction with estimated AR$42bn annualized personnel savings creates a structurally leaner cost base. Coupled with a CET1 ratio of 14.2%, this improves capital resilience and supports sustainable earnings recovery and regulatory compliance over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Grupo Supervielle SA (SUPV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$795.31M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)579.87K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth-4.66%
EPS Growth-184.78%
CountryUS
Employees3,456
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-854.35
Shares Outstanding76,186,730
10 Day Avg. Volume389,334
30 Day Avg. Volume579,865
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)1.49
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio-1.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.70Price Target Upside22.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$973.27M
Grupo Supervielle SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Grupo Supervielle S.A. is an Argentine financial services conglomerate that provides a wide array of banking and financial solutions. The company serves both individual customers and corporate entities through its distinct operational segments: Pe...
How the Company Makes Money
Grupo Supervielle primarily earns money through a mix of net interest income and fee-based income generated across its banking and related financial-services operations. (1) Net interest income: The bank collects interest on its loan portfolio (e....
Grupo Supervielle SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of operational resilience and near-term challenges. Highlights include strong loan growth (led by corporate lending), a materially stronger capital position (CET1 at 15.4%), a rebound in net financial income and NIM, improved core deposit traction, cost discipline and accelerating momentum at the digital brokerage (EOL). Offsetting these positives are a quarterly net loss driven by a 75% sequential increase in provisions, elevated net cost of risk (10.4% in the quarter), a rise in NPLs to 5.0%, and a 6% sequential decline in total deposits due to tactical deleveraging. Management provided constructive guidance for 2026 (loans, deposits, NIM, cost of risk and ROE) and signaled that provisioning trends may have peaked, supporting an optimistic outlook. On balance, operational progress and capital strength appear to outweigh near-term credit and macro pressures, supporting a cautiously positive outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Loan Growth
Total loans grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year; commercial (corporate) lending led expansion, up 25% quarter-over-quarter and 64% year-over-year, and now represents 63% of the loan portfolio.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Net Loss and Provisioning Spike
Reported an attributable net loss of ~AR 19.5 billion in 4Q'25, although improved from the ~AR 55 billion loss in the prior quarter. Loan loss provisions increased ~75% sequentially and were the primary driver of the quarterly loss.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Loan Growth
Total loans grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year; commercial (corporate) lending led expansion, up 25% quarter-over-quarter and 64% year-over-year, and now represents 63% of the loan portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to real loan growth of 25–30% (led by corporate lending, with peso loans expected to grow faster than dollar loans), deposit growth of 20–25% (peso deposits to drive the mix and tax-amnesty upside for dollar balances), an NPL ratio of 5–6% for the year with a temporary peak in 1Q26, net cost of risk of 6.0–6.5%, NIM of 14–16%, net fee income up ~5% in real terms, structural operating expenses broadly stable in real terms, ROE of 4–9% for 2026 (with sequential improvement expected and a path to double-digit ROE by year-end 2026 and high‑teens by 2027–28 under normalization), and an ending CET1 ratio targeted at 11–13%; these projections assume macro parameters of ~22.4% inflation, 3.7% GDP growth and an exchange rate of ~1,750 ARS/USD by end‑2026.Grupo Supervielle SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.42T | 2.33T | 2.04T | 3.02T | 1.96T | 793.88B |
| Gross Profit | 733.15B | 918.05B | 1.16T | 1.23T | 859.83B | 381.48B |
| EBITDA | -17.32B | -112.72B | 195.12B | 257.67B | 10.04B | 16.79B |
| Net Income | -23.97B | -56.60B | 104.49B | 112.40B | -34.09B | -10.52B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.79T | 7.79T | 4.51T | 4.48T | 2.17T | 760.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.40T | 1.60T | 662.73B | 553.95B | 158.18B | 82.66B |
| Total Debt | 992.80B | 1.05T | 91.25B | 8.27B | 6.63B | 4.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.53T | 6.78T | 3.71T | 3.74T | 1.88T | 660.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.04T | 1.01T | 797.74B | 743.40B | 287.32B | 100.34B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -577.57B | -1.13T | 461.47B | 133.20B | 539.30B | 273.86B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -539.08B | -1.05T | 518.86B | 157.95B | 565.34B | 304.33B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 685.78B | 1.13T | -46.24B | -18.89B | -23.53B | -28.48B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 221.75B | 484.51B | -1.05T | -1.00T | -599.33B | -329.09B |
Grupo Supervielle SA Technical Analysis
Negative
9.52
Price Trends
9.65
Negative
9.26
Negative
10.05
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.39
Positive
34.28
Neutral
8.45
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SUPV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.17, below the 50-day MA of 9.65, and below the 200-day MA of 10.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.45 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SUPV.
Grupo Supervielle SA Risk Analysis
Grupo Supervielle SA disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Grupo Supervielle SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Grupo Supervielle SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $601.05M | 8.79 | 20.68% | 2.36% | 18.07% | 52.19% | |
71 Outperform | $822.05M | 15.93 | 7.65% | 0.43% | 10.63% | 59.91% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
62 Neutral | $723.35M | 12.58 | 11.82% | 2.99% | 8.43% | 69.62% | |
50 Neutral | $795.31M | -22.64 | -4.99% | ― | -4.66% | -184.78% |
* Financial Sector Average
SUPV
Grupo Supervielle SA
8.05
-1.63
-16.84%
AROW
Arrow Financial
39.25
12.41
46.22%
NRIM
Northrim Bancorp
27.25
6.22
29.59%
PGC
Peapack-Gladstone Financial
46.68
20.29
76.89%
Grupo Supervielle SA Corporate Events
Grupo Supervielle Returns to Profit in 2Q26 as Cost Cuts and Margin Gains Strengthen Outlook
Aug 11, 2026
Grupo Supervielle returned to profitability in the second quarter of 2026, reporting attributable net income of AR$12.8 billion and an adjusted ROAE of 12.4% when excluding extraordinary severance costs tied to a rightsizing plan. The bank cut hea...
Grupo Supervielle Clears Related-Party Portfolio Rebalancing Transactions
Jun 8, 2026
On June 8, 2026, Grupo Supervielle S.A. disclosed that its board approved securities transactions between the parent company and its wholly owned brokerage subsidiary, Supervielle Agente de Negociación S.A.U. The transactions were designed to...
Grupo Supervielle Reports First-Quarter 2026 Financial Position
May 27, 2026
Grupo Supervielle S.A. has filed its consolidated condensed interim financial statements for the three‑month period ended March 31, 2026, prepared in homogeneous Argentine pesos and presented on a comparative basis with prior periods. The fi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.