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The ONE Group Hospitality Inc (STKS)
NASDAQ:STKS
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The ONE Group Hospitality (STKS) AI Stock Analysis

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STKS

The ONE Group Hospitality

(NASDAQ:STKS)

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Neutral 48 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(21.21% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—especially high leverage and ongoing net losses—despite positive operating cash flow. Technicals are mixed with a soft longer-term trend, while the earnings call adds some support via margin improvement, liquidity progress, and EBITDA guidance. Valuation provides limited help given negative earnings and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Restaurant-level margin expansion
Broad margin gains across STK and Benihana indicate better operating discipline, sourcing and acquisition synergies. Sustained improvement can strengthen unit economics and partially offset labor, occupancy and other cost pressures.
Negative Factors
High leverage and shrinking equity
Heavy leverage leaves limited balance-sheet flexibility and increases sensitivity to interest costs, refinancing conditions and earnings volatility. Falling equity further reduces the company’s capacity to absorb operational setbacks or fund expansion internally.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Restaurant-level margin expansion
Broad margin gains across STK and Benihana indicate better operating discipline, sourcing and acquisition synergies. Sustained improvement can strengthen unit economics and partially offset labor, occupancy and other cost pressures.
Read all positive factors

The ONE Group Hospitality (STKS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

The ONE Group Hospitality Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. is a global hospitality firm primarily involved in the development, ownership, operation, management, and licensing of restaurants and lounges. The company conducts its business through its distinct STK, Kona Grill,...
How the Company Makes Money
The ONE Group makes money primarily by operating restaurants, generating revenue from food and beverage sales to guests (dine-in and, where offered, related on-premise dining occasions such as private events). A secondary source of revenue can com...

The ONE Group Hospitality Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented meaningful operational and financial progress: stronger cash generation (nearly tripled operating cash flow YTD), improved restaurant-level margins, sustained cost-of-sales improvement, positive comparable transactions across all segments, and a disciplined shift toward capital-efficient, asset-light growth (including a promising Benihana Express prototype). Offsetting these positives were a modest revenue decline (~3.3%), a ~9.7% decrease in adjusted EBITDA driven by higher marketing and G&A investments, continued net losses to common shareholders, and temporary headwinds from the World Cup, extreme weather and a delayed NYC relocation. Overall, management emphasized execution, liquidity improvement, and a conservative growth posture.
Positive Updates
Strong Cash Generation and Debt Paydown
Operating cash flow for the first six months of 2026 nearly tripled year-over-year to approximately $32-$33 million (from $11 million), enabling repayment of over $6 million of debt year-to-date ($4M term loan, $2M revolver) and improved liquidity with $28.7 million available under the revolving facility.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline Year-Over-Year
Total consolidated GAAP revenues decreased ~3.3% to $200–201 million (from $207 million prior year). Management attributes much of the decline to planned portfolio optimization and the delayed relocation of STK Downtown NYC, but top-line pressure remains a near-term headwind.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Strong Cash Generation and Debt Paydown
Operating cash flow for the first six months of 2026 nearly tripled year-over-year to approximately $32-$33 million (from $11 million), enabling repayment of over $6 million of debt year-to-date ($4M term loan, $2M revolver) and improved liquidity with $28.7 million available under the revolving facility.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management provided Q3 and full‑year 2026 targets: for Q3 they expect GAAP revenue of $176–$180M, consolidated comparable sales of 0%–2%, managed/franchise/license revenue of ~ $3M, company‑owned operating expenses of 85%–87% of company‑owned restaurant net revenue, adjusted G&A (ex‑stock comp) of about $12.5M, adjusted EBITDA of $12–$15M, and preopening expense of $1–$2M (noting Q3 historically represents ~10%–15% of full‑year contribution). For FY2026 they guide GAAP revenue of $805–$820M with comparable sales of 1%–2%, managed/franchise/license revenue of ~ $14M, company‑owned operating expenses ≈82% of company‑owned restaurant net revenue, adjusted G&A (ex‑stock comp) ≈ $50M, adjusted EBITDA $95–$105M, preopening $6.5–$7.5M, net interest expense $38–$39M, an effective tax rate of ~10%–20%, total capex (net of landlord allowances) $30M, and plans to open 6–10 new venues.

The ONE Group Hospitality Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials are pressured by persistent net losses and heavy leverage. Income statement quality is weak (large TTM net loss and compressed gross margin), the balance sheet is the primary risk (very high debt-to-equity and shrinking equity), and cash flow is a relative bright spot (positive operating cash flow with only thin/volatile free cash flow).
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue800.51M805.72M673.34M332.77M316.64M277.18M
Gross Profit111.62M95.88M122.75M65.79M66.58M65.18M
EBITDA64.52M51.19M40.72M34.02M26.33M38.57M
Net Income-82.03M-92.24M-15.82M4.72M13.53M31.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets885.30M884.20M959.35M317.25M291.02M229.84M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.36M4.17M27.58M21.05M55.12M23.61M
Total Debt658.69M651.10M641.02M199.29M183.63M132.64M
Total Liabilities771.25M772.72M756.75M249.88M222.43M169.31M
Stockholders Equity118.48M115.47M205.25M69.18M69.71M61.43M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.49M-27.28M-27.37M-22.77M-7.38M19.50M
Operating Cash Flow51.94M30.31M44.19M30.78M25.25M30.97M
Investing Cash Flow-49.07M-57.59M-441.39M-53.55M-32.63M-11.47M
Financing Cash Flow-1.04M3.87M404.34M-11.25M39.10M-20.27M

The ONE Group Hospitality Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1.65
Price Trends
50DMA
1.80
Negative
100DMA
1.83
Negative
200DMA
1.90
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.04
Negative
RSI
37.64
Neutral
STOCH
15.25
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STKS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.70, below the 50-day MA of 1.80, and below the 200-day MA of 1.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.25 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STKS.

The ONE Group Hospitality Risk Analysis

The ONE Group Hospitality disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. The ONE Group Hospitality reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

The ONE Group Hospitality Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
$87.34M13.169.84%1.28%6.14%53.60%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
53
Neutral
$160.11M-5.0129.24%-3.71%50.04%
48
Neutral
$51.65M-0.43-69.17%-4.06%-154.36%
47
Neutral
$85.44M-3.5750.91%0.19%46.85%
42
Neutral
$19.18M-6.05-9.79%5.09%-9.48%77.31%
42
Neutral
$43.25M-0.5840.16%-8.19%-47.68%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
STKS
The ONE Group Hospitality
1.63
-1.09
-40.07%
ARKR
Ark Restaurants
5.32
-1.86
-25.91%
BDL
Flanigan's Enterprises
46.99
18.72
66.22%
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet
8.47
2.32
37.72%
NDLS
Noodles & Co
14.32
8.99
168.82%
THCH
TH International
1.35
-1.12
-45.34%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 18, 2026