Spin Master (SNMSF) AI Stock Analysis

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Spin Master

(Other OTC:SNMSF)

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Action:N/A

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Positive Factors

Strong Cash GenerationRobust operating and free cash flow provide internal funding for product development, acquisitions, debt reduction and shareholder returns. Strong cash conversion despite reported losses also lowers near-term financial stress and supports strategic reinvestment across Spin Master’s brands and digital platforms.

Negative Factors

Unprofitable and Volatile EarningsRecent losses and negative returns indicate that strong gross margins have not yet translated into dependable earnings. Earnings volatility can constrain reinvestment and shareholder returns, while impairments and content amortization create additional uncertainty around sustainable operating profitability.

Spin Master (SNMSF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $2.19B
Dividend Yield: 2.23%
Average Volume (3M): 19.39K
Price to Earnings (P/E): -14.1
Beta (1Y): 0.64
Revenue Growth: -1.31%
EPS Growth: -287.23%
Country: US
Employees: 2,500
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Leisure

Spin Master Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Spin Master Corp. functions as a leading children's entertainment enterprise, engaged in the conceptualization, design, production, licensing, and commercialization of a diverse portfolio of toys, entertainment properties, and digital games. Its oper...

Spin Master Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:3.99%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 01, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was broadly constructive. Core brands delivered growth, year-to-date adjusted EBITDA increased 7%, cash flow and leverage improved, strategic initiatives gained traction, and full-year guidance was reiterated. These positives were tempered by stable rather than accelerating consolidated revenue, lower reported margins, impairments, declines in Toy and Digital Games reported results, a roughly $30 million tariff headwind and uncertainty around fourth-quarter replenishment demand and the nonrecurrence of the 2026 movie benefit.

Positive Updates

Year-to-Date EBITDA Growth and Reaffirmed Guidance

Year-to-date revenue was stable and adjusted EBITDA increased 7%. Management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance for stable to low single-digit revenue growth and mid- to upper-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth.

Negative Updates

Quarterly Revenue Timing Issues

Underlying core-brand growth was offset by timing issues from the prior call, including an approximately $40 million pull-forward of gross product sales from the third quarter into the second quarter in Toy and approximately $12 million of prior-year Digital Games revenue from licensing certain games to partners.

Company Guidance

Spin Master reiterated its 2026 guidance for stable to low single-digit growth in revenues and mid- to upper single-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA; for the fourth quarter, it is targeting modest revenue and similar adjusted EBITDA growth, although it said it is too soon to provide specifics on where it expects to land within its full year guidance range, with 50% of POS occurring in the fourth quarter and a healthy majority of fourth-quarter orders being domestic replenishment rather than direct import. Management expects about $25 million of revenue and EBITDA directly associated with the PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie this year and said, for modeling purposes, to assume that doesn't reoccur as it heads into '27; it also said Hapiko distribution will widen in the back half of next year and that it will start to ship wider as it gets deeper into 2027.

Spin Master Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

SNMSF against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSE:AW	71Outperform	CAD 889.67M	15.69	25.64%	5.16%	2.77%	101.33%
TSE:MTY	64Neutral	CAD 839.42M	7.69	12.54%	4.38%	-3.60%	234.75%
Sector *	61Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
TSE:CTC	60Neutral	CAD 10.63B	16.88	11.53%	3.26%	1.05%	-6.66%
TSE:DOO	49Neutral	CAD 6.66B	61.57	20.51%	1.03%	19.87%	―
TSE:DII.B	48Neutral	CAD 51.23M	-0.38	133.25%	―	-14.12%	52.15%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SNMSF and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
SNMSF	Spin Master	15.38	1.20	8.44%
TSE:DOO	Brp Inc	93.59	3.80	4.23%
TSE:CTC	Canadian Tire Corp	221.00	-22.34	-9.18%
TSE:MTY	Mty Food Group	36.75	4.10	12.55%
TSE:DII.B	Dorel Industries Class B	1.50	-0.19	-11.24%
TSE:AW	A & W Food Services of Canada Inc.	37.19	2.12	6.04%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Spin Master AI Stock Analysis