JM Smucker (SJM) AI Stock Analysis

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JM Smucker

(NYSE:SJM)

Select Model

Neutral 50 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:50Neutral

Price Target:

$109.00

▲(0.65% Upside)

JM Smucker's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, with declining profitability and high leverage being major concerns. The technical analysis suggests a cautious outlook, while the valuation is impacted by negative earnings. Despite these challenges, the high dividend yield offers some income potential for investors.

Positive Factors

Strong Free Cash Flow Outlook

An improved free cash flow outlook indicates stronger cash generation capabilities, supporting debt reduction and potential reinvestment in growth initiatives.

Positive Performance in Coffee Segment

Strong performance in the coffee segment suggests robust demand and effective pricing strategies, contributing to sustained revenue growth.

Positive Trends in Uncrustables and Pet Segment

Momentum in key brands like Uncrustables and the pet segment highlights successful brand management and potential for continued market share gains.

Negative Factors

Declining Profitability

Declining profitability and negative net income indicate operational challenges and may hinder the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

High Leverage

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to navigate economic downturns.

Impact of Increased Tariffs on Coffee

Increased tariffs on coffee imports could pressure margins and affect profitability, requiring strategic adjustments to maintain competitiveness.

JM Smucker (SJM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$11.50B

Dividend Yield4.01%

Average Volume (3M)2.47M

Price to Earnings (P/E)22.2

Beta (1Y)0.17

Revenue Growth2.54%

EPS Growth-293.39%

CountryUS

Employees9,000

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength42

IndustryPackaged Foods

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.90

Shares Outstanding106,685,160

10 Day Avg. Volume2,375,779

30 Day Avg. Volume2,467,166

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.04

Price to Book (P/B)2.03

Price to Sales (P/S)1.42

P/FCF Ratio15.15

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.70

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.24

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.38

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-43.20

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$117.87

Price Target Upside8.84% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering18

JM Smucker Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. It operates in three segments: U.S. Retail Pet Foods, U.S. Retail Coffee, and U.S. Retail Consumer Foods. The company offers mainstream roast, ground, single serve, and premium coffee; peanut butter and specialty spreads; fruit spreads, shortening and oils, and frozen sandwiches and snacks; pet food and pet snacks; and foodservice hot beverage, foodservice portion control, and flour products, as well as dog and cat food, frozen handheld products, juices and beverages, and baking mixes and ingredients. It provides its products under the Meow Mix, 9Lives, Kibbles 'n Bits, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Rachael Ray Nutrish and Nature's Recipe, Folgers, Café Bustelo, Dunkin', Folgers, Café Bustelo, 1850, Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Robin Hood, and Five Roses. The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, natural foods stores and distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, and mass merchandisers. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.

How the Company Makes MoneyJM Smucker generates revenue primarily through the sale of its branded products in several key categories. The company's major revenue streams include the sale of coffee, with Folgers and Dunkin' being significant contributors, and the sale of spreads, where Smucker's and Jif are leading brands. Additionally, JM Smucker has a growing pet food segment, which includes brands like Meow Mix and Kibble 'n Bits. The company benefits from strong distribution networks and partnerships with major retailers, enhancing its market reach. Seasonal promotions, brand loyalty programs, and strategic marketing initiatives also play a crucial role in driving sales and customer engagement, thereby contributing to its overall earnings.

JM Smucker Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Product

Revenue by Product
Details revenue generated from individual products, offering insight into consumer preferences and product performance within the market.

Chart InsightsJ.M. Smucker's Coffee segment remains robust, showing resilience despite price elasticity challenges, while Sweet Baked Goods and Pet Foods face significant headwinds. The Sweet Baked Snacks segment, in particular, is struggling with a 14% sales decline and substantial impairment charges. Meanwhile, innovations like Uncrustables and Café Bustelo are driving growth, with Uncrustables achieving double-digit expansion. The company is focusing on debt reduction and leveraging synergies from the Hostess acquisition to mitigate these challenges and improve financial stability.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

JM Smucker Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2025

(Q1-2026)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Dec 02, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While there are positive developments in the coffee segment, free cash flow, and specific brands like Uncrustables and Milk Bone, challenges such as increased tariffs, soft first-quarter earnings, and volume declines in sweet baked snacks balance out the positives.

Q1-2026 Updates

Positive Updates

Positive Performance in Coffee Segment

The coffee segment is expected to see pricing in the mid-20% range, with overall growth in the low to mid-teens year-over-year. The company experienced a $50 million over-delivery in coffee expectations in Q1 due to better-than-expected price elasticity.

Strong Free Cash Flow Outlook

The free cash flow outlook was increased from $875 million to $975 million for the fiscal year, driven by benefits from the Beautiful Bill Act, which will be an ongoing benefit in future fiscal years.

Positive Trends in Uncrustables and Pet Segment

The Uncrustables brand continues to show momentum, and the pet segment, particularly cat food, also shows ongoing momentum.

Milk Bone Brand Support and Growth

Milk Bone is expected to return to growth in the second half of the fiscal year, supported by advertising, innovation, and tactical pricing strategies.

Negative Updates

Impact of Increased Tariffs on Coffee

The company is experiencing increased tariffs on green coffee, leading to a net 25¢ headwind, which offsets the 20¢ benefit from favorable price elasticity.

Soft First Quarter Earnings

The first quarter was the softest, with additional coffee costs higher than anticipated. The second quarter is also expected to see further coffee cost impacts due to timing and hedging activities.

Volume Decline in Sweet Baked Snacks

There was a volume decline in the sweet baked snacks segment, although SKU rationalization is expected to improve profitability over time.

Company Guidance

During the J. M. Smucker Company's Fiscal 2026 First Quarter Earnings Call, several key metrics and guidance updates were discussed. The company has updated its outlook for the coffee segment, now expecting pricing benefits in the mid-20% range due to additional pricing actions responding to increased tariff rates on green coffee. Volume is anticipated to be impacted in the low to mid-teens, leading to overall segment growth in the low to mid-teens year-over-year. Despite these headwinds, the full-year guidance remains at a $9 midpoint, with expected favorability from better-than-anticipated price elasticity partially offset by increased tariffs. Additionally, the fiscal year free cash flow outlook has increased from $875 million to $975 million due to benefits from the new "One Big Beautiful Bill" act, which is expected to support ongoing debt reduction efforts. The company also highlighted sequential improvement in the Sweet Baked Snacks segment's profitability as SKU rationalization and cost-saving measures are implemented, with expected savings of $30 million impacting the current and next fiscal years.

JM Smucker Financial Statement Overview

Summary

JM Smucker is facing financial challenges with declining revenues and profitability. The income statement shows negative net income and operational inefficiencies. The balance sheet reflects high leverage, and cash flow is under pressure despite positive operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Neutral

The income statement shows significant challenges with negative net income and declining revenue growth in the TTM period. Gross profit margin has decreased from previous periods, and both EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operational inefficiencies. The company is facing a downturn in profitability, which is a concern for future growth.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, which has increased over time, indicating rising leverage. Return on equity is negative, highlighting profitability issues. However, the equity ratio remains stable, suggesting some level of balance sheet strength despite the challenges.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, although the company maintains a positive operating cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively strong, indicating that the company is generating cash despite net losses. However, the overall cash flow position is under pressure due to declining profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.71B	8.73B	8.18B	8.53B	8.00B	8.00B
Gross Profit	3.06B	3.38B	3.12B	2.80B	2.70B	3.14B
EBITDA	-452.10M	-155.60M	1.69B	573.80M	1.46B	1.80B
Net Income	-1.46B	-1.23B	744.00M	-91.30M	631.70M	876.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	17.74B	17.56B	20.27B	14.99B	16.05B	16.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	39.30M	69.90M	62.00M	1.14B	169.90M	334.30M
Total Debt	8.08B	7.76B	8.55B	4.42B	4.61B	4.91B
Total Liabilities	11.82B	11.48B	12.58B	7.70B	7.91B	8.16B
Stockholders Equity	5.93B	6.08B	7.69B	7.29B	8.14B	8.12B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	672.50M	816.60M	642.90M	717.00M	718.80M	1.26B
Operating Cash Flow	1.03B	1.21B	1.23B	1.19B	1.14B	1.56B
Investing Cash Flow	-125.80M	-100.30M	-3.96B	262.60M	-355.50M	311.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-901.70M	-1.10B	2.14B	-964.60M	-944.50M	-1.94B

JM Smucker Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price108.30

Price Trends

50DMA

109.25

Negative

100DMA

106.84

Positive

200DMA

107.32

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.23

Negative

RSI

49.45

Neutral

STOCH

37.58

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SJM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 108.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 108.14, below the 50-day MA of 109.25, and above the 200-day MA of 107.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SJM.

JM Smucker Risk Analysis

JM Smucker disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JM Smucker reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

JM Smucker Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GIS	69 Neutral	$27.04B	9.60	30.98%	4.79%	-3.26%	25.58%
MKC	69 Neutral	$18.27B	23.65	14.19%	2.57%	0.89%	4.85%
CPB	67 Neutral	$9.42B	15.75	15.64%	4.88%	6.40%	6.17%
CAG	67 Neutral	$9.17B	10.82	9.65%	7.33%	-4.11%	72.17%
HRL	63 Neutral	$13.56B	17.98	9.46%	4.68%	0.65%	-3.76%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
SJM	50 Neutral	$11.50B	22.22	-21.32%	4.01%	2.54%	-293.39%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SJM

JM Smucker

108.30

-3.36

-3.01%

CPB

Campbell Soup

31.95

-13.16

-29.17%

CAG

Conagra Brands

19.11

-8.34

-30.38%

GIS

General Mills

50.36

-19.48

-27.89%

HRL

Hormel Foods

24.64

-5.46

-18.14%

MKC

McCormick & Company

68.91

-9.07

-11.63%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 04, 2025