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Somnigroup International (SGI)
NYSE:SGI
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Somnigroup International (SGI) AI Stock Analysis

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SGI

Somnigroup International

(NYSE:SGI)

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Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$92.00
▲(15.96% Upside)
Somnigroup International's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including record sales and strategic growth initiatives. However, high valuation metrics and potential liquidity concerns temper the outlook. The technical analysis suggests strong momentum, but caution is advised due to overbought conditions.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for SGI's products and services, supporting long-term market expansion and financial health.
Strategic Partnerships
The expanded partnership with Fullpower enhances SGI's innovation capabilities, potentially leading to new product developments and competitive advantages.
Leadership Strength
Extending the CEO's contract ensures leadership continuity, leveraging his successful track record to guide SGI through future growth and strategic initiatives.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Declining profit margins suggest cost pressures and efficiency issues that could impact SGI's ability to sustain profitability in the long term.
North American Market Challenges
Sales decline in North America indicates market challenges that could hinder SGI's growth and require strategic adjustments to regain momentum.
Tariff Impact
Tariff impacts increase costs and pressure margins, potentially affecting SGI's competitiveness and profitability in affected markets.

Somnigroup International (SGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Somnigroup International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSomni is a company specializing in sleep technology and wellness solutions, developing innovative products to enhance sleep quality. The company integrates science-backed methods, smart technology, and data-driven insights to improve sleep patterns and overall well-being.
How the Company Makes MoneySGI generates revenue through multiple streams. The primary source of income comes from the sale of its smart sleep tracking devices and accessories, which are marketed directly to consumers via online platforms and retail partnerships. Additionally, SGI offers subscription-based services for its sleep-enhancing applications, providing users with personalized insights, coaching, and access to premium content. The company also collaborates with healthcare providers and organizations to integrate its technology into clinical settings, creating additional revenue through partnerships and licensing agreements. Furthermore, SGI invests in research and development to innovate new products, which helps maintain its competitive edge and attract new customers.

Somnigroup International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted significant achievements, including record net sales and successful acquisition synergies, alongside strategic investments and international growth. However, the North American market showed signs of decline, and there were challenges with tariffs and slight sales decreases in some segments.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Sales and Adjusted EBITDA
Somnigroup achieved record net sales up approximately 53% to $1.9 billion, and adjusted EBITDA increased approximately 26% to $291 million.
Successful Acquisition of Mattress Firm
The acquisition of Mattress Firm has resulted in significant synergy initiatives, with forecasted incremental adjusted EBITDA of $40 million in 2025 and another $60 million in 2026.
International Business Growth
The international segment reported robust double-digit sales growth and solid margin expansion, marking 9 consecutive quarters of meaningful sales expansion on a constant currency basis.
Expanded Partnership with Fullpower
Tempur Sealy announced a $25 million equity investment in Fullpower to acquire approximately 15.6% ownership, alongside a multiyear extension through 2036 for exclusive rights to embed Sleeptracker technology.
Strong EPS Guidance
For 2025, Somnigroup raised its adjusted earnings per share guidance to a range of $2.40 to $2.70.
Negative Updates
North American Market Performance
Like-for-like net sales for Tempur Sealy North American business unit were down 2%, with the overall North American bedding market believed to be down high single digits.
Decline in Mattress Firm Sales
On a like-for-like basis, Mattress Firm sales declined 1% over the prior year despite in-store initiatives.
Impact of Tariffs
Tariffs continue to impact the business, particularly in steel and textiles, although mitigated by supplier movements and price increases.
Company Guidance
During the Somnigroup Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided updated guidance for the fiscal year 2025, emphasizing several key metrics. Somnigroup reported a 53% increase in net sales, reaching $1.9 billion, and a 26% increase in adjusted EBITDA, totaling $291 million. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.53. The company anticipates a full-year adjusted EPS range of $2.40 to $2.70, with a sales midpoint of approximately $7.4 billion after intercompany eliminations. Somnigroup projects adjusted EBITDA of about $1.27 billion at the midpoint and expects a gross margin slightly above 44%. The company also foresees CapEx of approximately $200 million for 2025, with plans to invest in refreshing Mattress Firm stores. Furthermore, Somnigroup expects its leverage ratio to be around 3.35x by the end of 2025, down from 3.6x at the end of the second quarter.

Somnigroup International Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Somnigroup International shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and profitability. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio indicates significant leverage, which poses potential risks despite the company's effective cash generation and return on equity.
Income Statement
70
Positive
Somnigroup International has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in gross profit margin, indicating improved cost management. The net profit margin has been stable, reflecting effective expense control. EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown healthy levels, contributing to robust profitability. Despite minor fluctuations, the overall trajectory is positive, showcasing strong financial performance.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting significant leverage. However, the positive return on equity indicates efficient use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is relatively low, implying reliance on debt financing. While this presents potential risk, the company's ability to generate returns tempers concerns.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Operating cash flow has consistently covered net income, showing strong cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow growth has been positive, supporting capital expenditures and financing activities. The cash flow ratios reflect effective cash management, although high financing cash flows suggest reliance on external funding.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.99B4.93B4.93B4.92B4.93B3.68B
Gross Profit2.52B2.18B2.13B2.05B2.16B1.64B
EBITDA722.20M804.20M739.30M807.30M1.00B627.40M
Net Income267.80M384.30M368.10M455.70M624.50M348.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets11.38B5.98B4.55B4.36B4.32B3.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments98.10M117.40M74.90M69.40M300.70M65.00M
Total Debt6.84B4.47B3.27B3.37B2.86B1.70B
Total Liabilities8.53B5.41B4.22B4.37B4.03B2.80B
Stockholders Equity2.84B559.00M323.40M-22.10M285.80M503.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow580.20M569.20M384.90M72.30M599.80M543.40M
Operating Cash Flow678.20M666.50M570.30M378.80M723.10M654.70M
Investing Cash Flow-2.92B-96.70M-187.80M-315.30M-554.80M-146.60M
Financing Cash Flow2.21B1.08B-384.30M-279.10M76.50M-522.60M

Somnigroup International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price79.34
Price Trends
50DMA
84.16
Negative
100DMA
78.16
Positive
200DMA
69.82
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.79
Positive
RSI
34.07
Neutral
STOCH
5.14
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SGI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 79.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.73, below the 50-day MA of 84.16, and above the 200-day MA of 69.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.79 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SGI.

Somnigroup International Risk Analysis

Somnigroup International disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Somnigroup International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Somnigroup International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$6.93B72.4512.97%18.61%-21.36%
$16.65B55.5616.47%0.57%23.05%-32.01%
$2.86B17.8320.68%3.53%7.04%13.52%
$10.27B56.9041.88%88.69%947.74%
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
$34.84B-20.73%1.43%-6.36%-554.84%
$3.47B-9.98%-3.68%-631.67%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SGI
Somnigroup International
79.34
31.40
65.50%
EL
The Estée Lauder Companies
96.69
31.46
48.23%
IPAR
Inter Parfums
89.15
-31.69
-26.22%
COTY
Coty
3.97
-3.50
-46.85%
ELF
e.l.f. Beauty
122.14
18.25
17.57%
HIMS
Hims & Hers Health
45.46
24.70
118.98%

Somnigroup International Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Somnigroup Appoints Christopher T. Cook as Director
Positive
Sep 30, 2025

On September 30, 2025, Somnigroup International Inc. announced the appointment of Christopher T. Cook as an independent director, expanding its Board of Directors from seven to eight members. Mr. Cook, a seasoned retail entrepreneur with over 20 years of leadership experience, is expected to bring valuable insights from his previous roles, including his tenure at Mattress Firm, to support Somnigroup’s long-term value creation strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (SGI) stock is a Buy with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Somnigroup International stock, see the SGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Somnigroup International Joins 2025 Goldman Sachs Conference
Positive
Sep 2, 2025

On September 2, 2025, Somnigroup International Inc. announced its participation in the 2025 Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference on September 3, 2025, highlighting the continuation of positive sales trends from early in the third quarter. The company’s leadership expressed confidence in leveraging favorable market conditions to enhance its performance, indicating potential positive impacts on its operations and industry standing.

The most recent analyst rating on (SGI) stock is a Hold with a $87.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Somnigroup International stock, see the SGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Somnigroup International Appoints New CEO for Subsidiary
Positive
Aug 18, 2025

On August 14, 2025, Somnigroup International‘s Board of Directors expanded Steven H. Rusing’s role from President to President and Chief Executive Officer of Mattress Firm, a wholly-owned subsidiary. This strategic move, announced on August 18, 2025, aims to enhance leadership agility and operational focus, with Rusing having already positively impacted the company’s direction and strategy since his initial appointment.

The most recent analyst rating on (SGI) stock is a Buy with a $57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Somnigroup International stock, see the SGI Stock Forecast page.

Tempur Sealy’s Strong Quarter with Record Sales
Aug 12, 2025

Tempur Sealy International’s latest earnings call paints a picture of a company experiencing a strong quarter, marked by record sales and the successful integration of Mattress Firm. Despite facing challenges in the North American market, including slight sales declines and ongoing tariff impacts, the company remains optimistic. International growth continues to be a significant positive, showcasing robust performance.

Somnigroup International Reports Strong Q2 Growth
Aug 8, 2025

Somnigroup International Inc., the world’s largest bedding company, specializes in designing, manufacturing, distributing, and retailing sleep solutions across more than 100 countries, with renowned brands like Tempur-Pedic, Sealy, and Mattress Firm under its umbrella.

Business Operations and Strategy
Somnigroup International Updates Investors on Strategic Initiatives
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

On August 7, 2025, Somnigroup International Inc. released an updated investor presentation highlighting its strategic initiatives and market positioning. The company, reimagined in February 2025 following the acquisition of Mattress Firm, emphasizes its competitive advantages in the bedding industry, including its strong financial flexibility and seasoned management team. The presentation outlines opportunities for growth through market share gains, product innovation, and operational efficiencies, while addressing tariff impacts and capital allocation strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (SGI) stock is a Buy with a $57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Somnigroup International stock, see the SGI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 02, 2025