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Smithfield Foods
(NASDAQ:SFD)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$22.50
▲(2.13% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/11/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (improved profitability, strong ROE, and manageable leverage) and supportive valuation (low P/E with a ~4.6% dividend). These positives are tempered by weak technical signals (price below key moving averages with negative momentum) and a more cautious outlook from management (sales guidance reduced to roughly flat and near-term profitability expected to step down in Q3).
Positive Factors
Vertical integration and branded portfolio
Vertical integration across hog production, processing and packaged meats can improve coordination, support supply flexibility and capture value across the chain. Combined with established brands, this structure provides a durable foundation for customer relationships and earnings resilience.
Negative Factors
Fresh Pork commodity exposure and margin deterioration
Fresh Pork profitability remains highly exposed to external cutout values and processing spreads, limiting management’s ability to protect margins when commodity conditions worsen. The newly projected loss shows that this exposure can materially reduce consolidated earnings over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Vertical integration and branded portfolio
Vertical integration across hog production, processing and packaged meats can improve coordination, support supply flexibility and capture value across the chain. Combined with established brands, this structure provides a durable foundation for customer relationships and earnings resilience.
Read all positive factors
Smithfield Foods (SFD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.11B
Dividend Yield5.86%
Average Volume (3M)1.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.5
Beta (1Y)0.27
Revenue Growth4.17%
EPS Growth16.27%
CountryUS
Employees34,000
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.69
Shares Outstanding393,767,430
10 Day Avg. Volume1,597,382
30 Day Avg. Volume1,596,392
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.57
P/FCF Ratio12.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.33Price Target Upside24.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.53B
Smithfield Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Smithfield Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces various packaged meats and fresh pork products in the United States and internationally. It operates through Packaged Meats, Fresh Pork, Hog Production, and Other segments. The Packa...
How the Company Makes Money
Smithfield Foods makes money primarily by selling pork and pork-based products through an integrated supply chain that includes hog production, pork processing, and packaged meats. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Fresh pork sales: reven...
Smithfield Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Balanced results: the company delivered record adjusted operating profit, expanded margins, strong cash generation, distribution gains and notable consumer traction (digital and younger cohorts) while managing through significant cost inflation, weaker volumes, fresh pork market spread compression and a moderated full-year sales outlook. Management emphasized strategic investments and a strong balance sheet as offsets to near-term commodity and demand headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly and First-Half Profitability
Second quarter adjusted operating profit of $300 million (record Q2); adjusted operating profit margin expanded to 8.1% from 7.9% (+20 bps). First-half adjusted operating profit of $638 million, up 2% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Consolidated Sales and Volume Pressure
Consolidated second quarter sales of $3.7 billion, down 2.3% year-over-year. Packaged Meats sales of $2.0 billion down 2.7% and volumes down 5.5% in Q2 (partly due to earlier Easter timing). Fresh Pork sales down 3.5%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly and First-Half Profitability
Second quarter adjusted operating profit of $300 million (record Q2); adjusted operating profit margin expanded to 8.1% from 7.9% (+20 bps). First-half adjusted operating profit of $638 million, up 2% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Smithfield updated its 2026 guidance, narrowing full‑year adjusted operating profit to $1.225–$1.375 billion (Packaged Meats $1.075–$1.15B; Fresh Pork $180–$240M; Hog Production $75–$125M) and now expects total company sales to be roughly flat (versus prior low single‑digit growth). Management expects Q3 profitability to be down sequentially from Q2 (Packaged Meats slightly up year‑over‑year in Q3) with a stronger, seasonally weighted Q4 driven by expanded distribution, stepped‑up eCommerce/marketing, mix shift and the 53rd week. For context, Q2 consolidated sales were $3.7B (down 2.3%, or essentially flat ex‑JV sales), Q2 adjusted operating profit was a record $300M (8.1% margin), H1 adjusted operating profit was a record $638M (+2% YoY), adjusted net income $245M (+13%), and adjusted diluted EPS $0.62 (+13%). Segment Q2 detail: Packaged Meats sales $2.0B (volumes -5.5%, ASP +2.9%) with operating profit $265M (13.1% margin); Fresh Pork sales $2.0B (volumes -2%, ASP -1.5%) with operating profit $14M (0.7%); Hog Production sales $772M with operating profit $64M (up $42M YoY). Financial strength supports the plan: net debt/adjusted EBITDA 0.4x, liquidity $3.6B (including $1.4B cash), H1 operating cash flow $204M (TTM >$1.1B), H1 capex $165M, and an expected $1.25 per share annual dividend.Smithfield Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 15.44B | 15.53B | 14.14B | 14.64B | 16.20B |
| Gross Profit | 2.04B | 2.09B | 1.90B | 889.00M | 1.50B |
| EBITDA | 1.65B | 1.64B | 1.47B | 374.00M | 1.57B |
| Net Income | 1.06B | 987.00M | 953.00M | 17.00M | 870.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.01B | 12.18B | 11.05B | 13.32B | 13.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.35B | 1.54B | 943.00M | 687.00M | 547.00M |
| Total Debt | 2.40B | 2.40B | 2.36B | 2.46B | 2.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.70B | 5.11B | 5.00B | 5.83B | 6.28B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.00B | 6.80B | 5.83B | 7.24B | 7.37B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 802.00M | 718.00M | 787.00M | 633.00M | 179.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.16B | 1.06B | 1.14B | 1.03B | 517.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -288.00M | -309.00M | -469.00M | -322.00M | 193.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -448.00M | -164.00M | -464.00M | -533.00M | -477.00M |
Smithfield Foods Technical Analysis
Neutral
22.03
Price Trends
22.79
Negative
23.57
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.21
Negative
45.83
Neutral
33.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SFD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.92, below the 50-day MA of 22.79, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SFD.
Smithfield Foods Risk Analysis
Smithfield Foods disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Smithfield Foods reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Smithfield Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $8.11B | 7.53 | 15.60% | 5.86% | 4.17% | 16.27% | |
68 Neutral | $7.13B | 13.15 | 14.85% | 17.80% | 1.42% | -55.97% | |
65 Neutral | $10.47B | 17.27 | 12.24% | ― | 14.73% | 468.97% | |
58 Neutral | $7.03B | -3.65 | -24.31% | 8.39% | -2.85% | -265.99% | |
58 Neutral | $13.52B | 17.21 | 17.67% | 7.94% | 334.15% | -18.31% | |
57 Neutral | $11.47B | 32.65 | 4.33% | 5.68% | 0.73% | -54.64% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
SFD
Smithfield Foods
20.26
-3.01
-12.93%
CAG
Conagra Brands
14.60
-3.16
-17.81%
DAR
Darling Ingredients
65.11
33.67
107.09%
HRL
Hormel Foods
20.57
-3.26
-13.68%
PPC
Pilgrim's Pride
30.24
-13.39
-30.69%
JBS
JBS
12.59
-2.02
-13.82%
Smithfield Foods Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Smithfield Foods Updates Q3 Outlook, Highlights Segment Divergence
Neutral
Sep 8, 2026
Smithfield Foods issued an update to its third-quarter 2026 outlook on September 8, 2026, highlighting divergent trends across its business segments. The company reaffirmed strong performance in Packaged Meats, underpinned by branded share gains, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.