Sera Prognostics (SERA) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was strongly positive, with substantial increases in ordering physicians and test volume, Medicaid coverage established in Illinois and Florida, expanding commercial and payer engagement, strengthening clinical and health economic evidence, and a stated cash runway into fiscal year 2029. The main challenges were lower third-quarter ASPs caused by a low- or non-reimbursed patient mix and the 12-month to 18-month timeframe typically required to move providers toward broad adoption. Management characterized the company as transitioning into commercialization with significant work still ahead.

Sera expects to pursue CE Mark approval for PreTRM Global in 2027, publish its PRIME health economic analysis in the fourth quarter, and see flat or down operating expenses in 2027 while significantly increasing the size of its commercial team; it believes it has sufficient cash to fund operations into fiscal year 2029. Management expects meaningful increases in product traction next calendar year, especially as it transitions to the second half of 2027, and is hoping at least 1 or 2 additional states will enact Medicaid coverage in fiscal year 2027. In Illinois and Florida, management is hoping to achieve low single-digits percentage penetration in each state in the first year and quickly accelerating afterwards; at, let's say, 20%, 30% of each state, revenue could be in tens of millions of dollars.