Sera Prognostics (SERA) Risk Analysis

Our executive officers, directors and our stockholders holding 5% or more of our common stock and their affiliates beneficially hold a significant percentage of our outstanding Class A common stock. Specifically, our largest stockholder and its affiliated entities hold approximately 15% of our outstanding shares of Class A common stock, in addition to shares of our Class B common stock and pre-funded warrants to purchase shares of our Class A common stock. These stockholders, individually or acting together, would be able to significantly influence our management and affairs and the outcome of matters submitted to our stockholders for approval, including the election of directors and any sale, merger, consolidation, or sale of all or substantially all of our assets. This concentration of ownership control may adversely affect the market price of our Class A common stock by: - delaying, deferring or preventing a change in control;- entrenching our management and the board of directors;- impeding a merger, consolidation, takeover or other business combination involving us that other stockholders may desire; and/or - discouraging a potential acquirer from making a tender offer or otherwise attempting to obtain control of us.

The trading price of our Class A common stock is likely to be highly volatile and could be subject to wide fluctuations in response to various factors, some of which are beyond our control, including limited trading volume. In addition to the factors discussed in this "Risk Factors" section and elsewhere in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, these factors include: - our ability to obtain broader market adoption of our PreTRM test;- actual or anticipated variations in our and our competitors' results of operations, as well as how those results compare to analyst and investor expectations;- our failure to successfully commercialize our product candidates;- announcements by us or our competitors of new products and services, significant acquisitions, other strategic transactions, including strategic and commercial partnerships and relationships, joint ventures, divestitures, collaborations or capital commitments;- changes in reimbursement practices by current or potential payers;- failure of analysts to initiate or maintain coverage of our Company, issuance of new securities analysts' reports or changed recommendations for our Class A common stock;- forward-looking statements related to our financial guidance or projections, our failure to meet or exceed our financial guidance or projections or changes in our financial guidance or projections;- actual or anticipated changes in regulatory oversight of our products and services;- development of disputes concerning our intellectual property or other proprietary rights;- commencement of, or our involvement in, litigation;- announcement or expectation of additional debt or equity financing efforts;- any major change in our management;- our inability to establish collaborations, if needed;- additions or departures of key scientific or management personnel;- our ability to effectively manage our growth;- overall performance of the equity markets;- sales of our common stock by us, our directors and officers, or our other stockholders in the future;- trading volume of our Class A common stock;- changes in accounting practices;- ineffectiveness of our internal controls;- general political and economic conditions; and - other events or factors, many of which are beyond our control. In addition, the stock market in general, and the market for diagnostics companies in particular, has experienced extreme price and volume fluctuations that have often been unrelated or disproportionate to the operating performance of the companies, including as a result of inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, evolving trade policies such as the imposition of new tariffs or the expansion of tariffs affecting medical diagnostics and pharmaceutical products under the current U.S. administration, and broader geopolitical instability. Broad market and industry factors may negatively affect the market price of our Class A common stock, regardless of our actual operating performance. In the past, securities class action litigation has often been instituted against companies following periods of volatility in the market price of a company's securities. This type of litigation, if instituted, could result in substantial costs and a diversion of management's attention and resources.

The dual class structure of our common stock may limit your ability to influence corporate matters. Holders of our Class A common stock are entitled to one vote per share, while holders of our Class B common stock are not entitled to any votes per share. Nonetheless, each share of our Class B common stock may be converted at any time into one share of our Class A common stock at the option of its holder by providing written notice to us, subject to the limitations provided for in our amended and restated certificate of incorporation, as amended. Consequently, if holders of our Class B common stock exercise their option to make this conversion, this will have the effect of increasing the relative voting power of those prior holders of our Class B common stock and correspondingly decreasing the voting power of the holders of our Class A common stock, which may limit your ability to influence corporate matters.

We are an emerging growth company, or EGC, as defined in the JOBS Act. For as long as we continue to be an EGC, we may take advantage of exemptions from various reporting requirements that are applicable to other public companies that are not EGCs, including not being required to comply with the auditor attestation requirements of Section 404 of SOX, reduced disclosure obligations regarding executive compensation in our periodic reports and proxy statements and exemptions from the requirements of holding nonbinding advisory votes on executive compensation and stockholder approval of any golden parachute payments not previously approved. We may remain an EGC until the earliest of: (1) the last day of the fiscal year in which we have at least $1.235 billion in annual revenue; (2) the last day of the fiscal year in which we are deemed to be a "large accelerated filer," as defined in Rule 12b-2 under the Exchange Act, which would occur if the market value of our common stock held by non-affiliates exceeded $700.0 million as of the last business day of the second fiscal quarter of such year; (3) the date on which we have issued more than $1.0 billion in non-convertible debt securities during the prior three-year period; and (4) December 31, 2026. We are also a smaller reporting company, meaning that the market value of our Class A common stock held by non-affiliates is less than $700.0 million and our annual revenue is less than $100.0 million during the most recently completed fiscal year. We may continue to be a smaller reporting company if either (1) the market value of our Class A common stock held by non-affiliates is less than $250.0 million or (2) our annual revenue is less than $100.0 million during the most recently completed fiscal year and the market value of our Class A common stock held by non-affiliates is less than $700.0 million. If we are a smaller reporting company at the time we cease to be an EGC we may continue to rely on exemptions from certain disclosure requirements that are available to smaller reporting companies. Specifically, as a smaller reporting company, we may choose to present only the two most recent fiscal years of audited financial statements in our Annual Report and, similar to EGCs, smaller reporting companies have reduced disclosure obligations regarding executive compensation. We may choose to take advantage of some, but not all, of the available exemptions. We have taken advantage of reduced reporting burdens in our periodic reports. We cannot predict whether investors will find our Class A common stock less attractive if we rely on certain or all of these exemptions. If some investors find our Class A common stock less attractive as a result, there may be a less active trading market for our Class A common stock, and our stock price may be more volatile. Under the JOBS Act, EGCs can also delay adopting new or revised accounting standards until such time as those standards apply to private companies, which may make our financial statements less comparable to companies that comply with new or revised accounting pronouncements as of public company effective dates.

Substantially all of our shares of Class A common stock and Class B common stock are eligible for public sale, if they are registered under the Securities Act or if they qualify for an exemption from registration under the Securities Act, including under Rules 144 or 701. If our existing stockholders sell, or indicate an intention to sell, substantial amounts of our Class A common stock in the public market, the trading price of our Class A common stock could decline. Certain holders of shares of our common stock will be entitled to rights with respect to the registration of their shares under the Securities Act as provided under the terms of an investors' rights agreement between us and the holders of our stock. Registration of these shares under the Securities Act would result in the shares becoming freely tradable without restriction under the Securities Act, except for shares held by affiliates, as defined in Rule 144 under the Securities Act. Any sales of securities by these stockholders could have a material adverse effect on the trading price of our common stock. We have registered on Form S-8 all shares of common stock that are issuable under our existing equity compensation plan, including the 2011 Employee, Director and Consultant Equity Incentive Plan, as amended, or the 2011 Plan, which expired in 2021, the 2021 Equity Incentive Plan, or the 2021 Plan, and the 2021 Employee Stock Purchase Plan, or the 2021 ESPP, as well as the shares of common stock underlying option awards outstanding under the 2011 Plan. Additionally, the number of shares of our Class A common stock reserved for issuance under the 2021 Plan automatically increases on January 1 of each year, beginning on January 1, 2022, by 4% of the total number of shares of our capital stock outstanding on December 31 of the preceding calendar year, or a lesser number of shares determined by our board of directors or compensation committee. Furthermore, the number of shares of our Class A common stock reserved for issuance under the 2021 ESPP automatically increases on January 1 of each year, beginning on January 1, 2022, by 1% of the total number of shares of our capital stock outstanding on December 31 of the preceding calendar year, or a lesser number of shares determined by our board of directors or compensation committee. Unless our board of directors elects not to increase the number of shares available for future grant each year, our stockholders may experience additional dilution. As a consequence, these shares can be freely sold in the public market upon issuance, subject to volume limitations applicable to affiliates.

Our amended and restated certificate of incorporation, as amended, and amended and restated bylaws contain provisions that could delay or prevent a change in control of our Company or changes in our board of directors that our stockholders might consider favorable. Some of these provisions include: - a board of directors divided into three classes serving staggered three-year terms, such that not all members of the board will be elected at one time;- a prohibition on stockholder action through written consent, which requires that all stockholder actions be taken at a meeting of our stockholders;- a requirement that special meetings of stockholders be called only by the board of directors acting pursuant to a resolution approved by the affirmative vote of a majority of the directors then in office;- advance notice requirements for stockholder proposals and nominations for election to our board of directors;- a requirement that no member of our board of directors may be removed from office by our stockholders except for cause and, in addition to any other vote required by law, upon the approval of not less than two-thirds of all outstanding shares of our voting stock then entitled to vote in the election of directors;- a requirement of approval of not less than two-thirds of all outstanding shares of our voting stock to amend any bylaws by stockholder action or to amend specific provisions of our certificate of incorporation, as amended; and - the authority of the board of directors to issue convertible preferred stock on terms determined by the board of directors without stockholder approval and which convertible preferred stock may include rights superior to the rights of the holders of common stock. In addition, because we are incorporated in Delaware, we are governed by the provisions of Section 203 of the General Corporation Law of the State of Delaware, which may prohibit certain business combinations with stockholders owning 15% or more of our outstanding voting stock. These anti-takeover provisions and other provisions in our amended and restated certificate of incorporation, as amended, and amended and restated bylaws could make it more difficult for stockholders or potential acquirers to obtain control of our board of directors or initiate actions that are opposed by the then-current board of directors and could also delay or impede a merger, tender offer or proxy contest involving our Company. These provisions could also discourage proxy contests and make it more difficult for you and other stockholders to elect directors of your choosing or cause us to take other corporate actions you desire. Any delay or prevention of a change in control transaction or changes in our board of directors could cause the market price of our Class A common stock to decline.

The trading market for our Class A common stock will depend in part on the research and reports that securities or industry analysts publish about us or our business. We do not have any control over these analysts. If few analysts commence coverage of us, the trading of our stock would likely decrease. Even if we do obtain sufficient analyst coverage, there can be no assurance that analysts will provide favorable coverage. If one or more of the analysts who covers us downgrades our stock or publishes inaccurate or unfavorable research about our business, our stock price may decline. If one or more of these analysts ceases coverage of our Company or fails to publish reports on us regularly, demand for our stock could decrease, which might cause our stock price and trading volume to decline.