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Sera Prognostics
(NASDAQ:SERA)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-2.44% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/30/26
The overall score is weighed down primarily by weak financial performance (tiny and declining revenue, negative gross profit, and persistent cash burn). Offsetting factors include a low-leverage balance sheet, a strong stated cash runway through 2029, and constructive commercialization/payer progress from the earnings call, but near-term revenue visibility and adoption timing remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Cash runway & cost reduction
A sizable cash balance coupled with a clear plan to cut ~ $10M in annual operating expenses materially extends the company's runway through 2029. This reduces near-term dilution risk and provides time to execute commercialization, pursue payer decisions, and reach scalable volumes before requiring additional capital.
Negative Factors
Very weak revenue & margins
Revenue levels are tiny and declining while gross profit is negative, indicating the company currently loses money on sales at scale. Persistent negative unit economics and low volumes mean the business must materially improve reimbursement, pricing or scale to achieve sustainable margins and profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash runway & cost reduction
A sizable cash balance coupled with a clear plan to cut ~ $10M in annual operating expenses materially extends the company's runway through 2029. This reduces near-term dilution risk and provides time to execute commercialization, pursue payer decisions, and reach scalable volumes before requiring additional capital.
Read all positive factors
Sera Prognostics (SERA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$77.32M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)40.22K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.36
Revenue Growth-35.19%
EPS Growth21.75%
CountryUS
Employees72
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.67
Shares Outstanding38,481,710
10 Day Avg. Volume55,279
30 Day Avg. Volume40,220
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)1.86
Price to Sales (P/S)1735.84
P/FCF Ratio-5.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.00Price Target Upside192.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$361.50K
Sera Prognostics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sera Prognostics, Inc. is a women's health diagnostics firm that focuses on creating, advancing, and bringing to market biomarker tests aimed at improving pregnancy results. Their primary product, the PreTRM test, is a blood-based biomarker assay ...
How the Company Makes Money
Sera Prognostics generates revenue primarily from the commercialization of its proprietary pregnancy diagnostics, most notably the PreTRM blood test. The company’s revenue model is centered on selling tests that are processed and reported through ...
Sera Prognostics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strategic, clinical and policy wins—most notably the PRIME subgroup results, Illinois Medicaid coverage, expanded payer engagement (>20 payer opportunities) and a strengthened evidence and European regulatory pathway—while acknowledging that commercial revenue remains nascent, operating losses have increased, and meaningful utilization will require multi-step execution across months to years. On balance, achievements around evidence, policy and payer pipeline materially improve the long-term commercialization outlook even as short-term revenue and adoption timelines remain constrained.Positive Updates
PRIME Subgroup Outcomes in First-Time Mothers
Publication of PRIME subgroup analysis showed a 22% reduction in NICU admissions, a twofold reduction (≈50%) among newborns following spontaneous preterm birth, a 30% reduction in severe composite neonatal morbidity, and a number needed to screen and treat (NNT) of 28 to prevent one NICU admission. First-time mothers represent ~40% of U.S. pregnancies, strengthening clinical relevance.
Negative Updates
Revenue Remains Modest
Q2 2026 revenue was only $30,000 despite a ≈76.5% year-over-year increase from $17,000 in Q2 2025, reflecting the early-stage nature of geographically targeted commercialization and that meaningful commercialization has not yet scaled.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
PRIME Subgroup Outcomes in First-Time Mothers
Publication of PRIME subgroup analysis showed a 22% reduction in NICU admissions, a twofold reduction (≈50%) among newborns following spontaneous preterm birth, a 30% reduction in severe composite neonatal morbidity, and a number needed to screen and treat (NNT) of 28 to prevent one NICU admission. First-time mothers represent ~40% of U.S. pregnancies, strengthening clinical relevance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management provided specific near‑ and medium‑term guidance and milestones: Q2 revenue was $30K (vs. $17K a year ago), operating expenses ~$10.0M (vs. $9.3M), R&D $3.5M (vs. $3.3M), SG&A $6.5M (vs. $6.0M), net loss $9.1M (vs. $8.0M), and cash of $80.3M, which they believe funds the company through key adoption and commercial milestones into 2029. Commercial targets include establishing 5–7 commercial programs (4 launched to date), having exceeded their goal to double payer discussions across 15–17 states (now engaged with >20 payer opportunities across >20 states), and converting access into utilization with provider registration taking a few months to up to a year, contracting/implementation typically ~6–9 months, and national payer policy reviews often ~9–12 months. Clinical and economic guidance highlights PRIME subgroup results (22% reduction in NICU admissions, twofold reduction among newborns after spontaneous preterm birth, 30% reduction in severe neonatal morbidity, NNS = 28), a health‑economics paper due in coming months, two PRIME abstracts at SMFM in October, month‑over‑month testing volume growth since PRIME publication, CE‑mark pre‑application in Q3 with full submission targeted in Q4 after additional ELISA testing, and an expectation that R&D spend will decline as commercialization investments continue; modeled penetration benchmarks for newly covered populations are single‑digit in year 1 (1–2% good, 2–3% outstanding) with ~5% often reached by year 3.Sera Prognostics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
8
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 70.00K | 81.00K | 77.00K | 306.00K | 268.00K | 82.00K |
| Gross Profit | -105.00K | -83.00K | -5.00K | 96.00K | 75.00K | 45.00K |
| EBITDA | -32.38M | -30.98M | -32.04M | -35.29M | -43.37M | -33.60M |
| Net Income | -33.23M | -31.93M | -32.90M | -36.24M | -44.19M | -35.01M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 86.74M | 101.93M | 72.58M | 95.44M | 116.33M | 147.03M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 46.45M | 39.20M | 46.24M | 49.08M | 82.70M | 105.11M |
| Total Debt | 3.00M | 2.34M | 840.00K | 1.86M | 2.83M | 128.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 27.36M | 26.52M | 24.77M | 25.28M | 17.39M | 8.46M |
| Stockholders Equity | 59.38M | 75.41M | 47.80M | 70.16M | 98.94M | 138.56M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -28.15M | -26.35M | -15.29M | -27.32M | -35.40M | -32.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -27.68M | -25.62M | -14.19M | -27.19M | -34.61M | -31.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 26.44M | -28.50M | 11.74M | 438.00K | 5.55M | -82.56M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 626.00K | 54.03M | 2.61M | 752.00K | 5.00K | 159.59M |
Sera Prognostics Technical Analysis
Negative
2.05
Price Trends
2.00
Negative
2.00
Negative
2.45
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
45.96
Neutral
41.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SERA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.05, above the 50-day MA of 2.00, and below the 200-day MA of 2.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SERA.
Sera Prognostics Risk Analysis
Sera Prognostics disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sera Prognostics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sera Prognostics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
58 Neutral | $253.23M | -7.57 | -788.19% | ― | 34.46% | 43.48% | |
56 Neutral | $338.58M | -4.31 | -46.74% | ― | 167.42% | -22.94% | |
54 Neutral | $850.81M | -9.97 | -61.65% | ― | -51.05% | 57.25% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $77.32M | -2.93 | -46.71% | ― | -35.19% | 21.75% | |
50 Neutral | $92.88M | -1.06 | -10.96% | ― | -0.21% | 75.40% | |
45 Neutral | $7.34M | -0.14 | 74.16% | ― | 86.32% | 21.31% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
SERA
Sera Prognostics
1.96
-0.42
-17.65%
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BDSX
Biodesix
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PRE
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19.75
12.17
160.55%
Sera Prognostics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Sera Prognostics Adds Veteran Executive to Board
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
Sera Prognostics announced on June 30, 2026 that seasoned healthcare executive Mark Capone will join its board of directors as a Class II director and Compensation Committee member, effective July 1, 2026, with an initial term running through the ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Sera Prognostics Holds 2026 Annual Stockholders Meeting
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
On June 4, 2026, Sera Prognostics, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders via live audio webcast, with a quorum representing 67.5% of eligible Class A common shares. Stockholders elected Kim Kamdar, Ph.D., and Sandra A. J. Lawrence as C...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Sera Prognostics Announces Board Resignation and Transition Plan
Neutral
Jun 1, 2026
On May 26, 2026, Sera Prognostics director Jeffrey T. Elliott notified the company he would resign from its board effective June 4, 2026, coinciding with the annual shareholders meeting at which his term was set to expire, and the company stressed...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.