Sera Prognostics (SERA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $67.06M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 308.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: -44.17%
• EPS Growth: 12.77%
• Country: US
• Employees: 63
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 36,705,025
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 459,353
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 308,331
• PEG Ratio: -0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 29.07
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.14K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.09
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-15.73%Downside)

Sera Prognostics faces significant challenges in profitability and valuation despite revenue growth. Technical indicators show a bearish trend. The earnings call and recent corporate appointment offer some strategic positives but underscore ongoing financial difficulties.

Positive Factors

Commercialization Potential

The company has a significant opportunity ahead with the commercialization of its PreTRM test.

Financial Stability

The company has approximately $120M in cash, expected to provide needed funding into 2028.

Revenue Growth Potential

Analysts see the potential for an inflection in volume and revenue growth as a matter of when and not if.

Negative Factors

Market Challenges

Gaining Medicaid coverage before PreTRM's inclusion in guidelines could provide an attractive opportunity for SERA, as Medicaid represents roughly half of the total addressable market for PreTRM.

Revenue Timeline

Significant material revenue traction is several years away, suggesting a longer-term investment horizon.

Sera Prognostics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sera Prognostics (SERA) is a biotechnology company specializing in the development and commercialization of innovative diagnostic tests that predict the risk of premature birth. By leveraging advanced proteomic technology, Sera Prognostics aims to improve maternal and neonatal health by providing physicians with critical information to manage pregnancies more effectively. Their core product, the PreTRM Test, is designed to assess a mother's risk of preterm birth, enabling targeted interventions that can improve outcomes for both mothers and babies.

How the Company Makes Money

Sera Prognostics generates revenue primarily through the sale of its PreTRM Test to healthcare providers, hospitals, and clinics. The test is marketed as a tool for early risk assessment, allowing healthcare professionals to identify and manage at-risk pregnancies more effectively. Revenue is also supported by partnerships with insurance companies and healthcare payers, which may cover the cost of the test for eligible patients. Additionally, Sera Prognostics collaborates with research institutions and pharmaceutical companies to explore further applications of their diagnostic technology, potentially opening additional revenue streams through licensing or strategic alliances.

Sera Prognostics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sera Prognostics exhibits revenue growth but is not yet profitable, shown by significant negative net profit margins. The balance sheet is strong with low debt, but negative cash flows and profitability metrics indicate ongoing financial challenges.

Income Statement

Sera Prognostics shows revenue growth with a 49.35% increase in the TTM period, but remains unprofitable with a negative net profit margin of -28685.22%. Gross profit margin improved slightly to 8.70% in the TTM, indicating some operational efficiency. However, the persistent negative EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest ongoing challenges in scaling to profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0009 in the TTM. The equity ratio stands at 80.20%, reflecting a strong capital structure. However, the return on equity remains negative due to continued losses, highlighting challenges in generating shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow is negative, though it has improved slightly by 4.02% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating that the company struggles to convert its earnings into cash, which could affect liquidity and operational flexibility.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
115.00K	77.00K	306.00K	268.00K	82.00K	25.00K
	Gross Profit
10.00K	-5.00K	96.00K	75.00K	45.00K	14.00K
	EBIT
-36.79M	-36.63M	-39.82M	-45.65M	-35.40M	-17.97M
	EBITDA
-33.41M	-32.04M	-35.29M	-42.91M	-33.60M	-17.11M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-32.99M	-32.90M	-36.24M	-44.25M	-36.23M	-21.61M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
46.20M	46.24M	49.08M	82.70M	105.11M	13.53M
	Total Assets
118.18M	72.58M	95.44M	116.33M	147.03M	14.80M
	Total Debt
81.00K	840.00K	1.86M	2.31M	128.00K	8.67M
	Net Debt
-5.15M	-3.20M	-2.02M	-27.57M	-58.80M	-4.86M
	Total Liabilities
23.40M	24.77M	25.28M	17.39M	8.46M	140.37M
	Stockholders Equity
94.78M	47.80M	70.16M	98.94M	138.56M	-125.57M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-27.13M	-14.24M	-27.32M	-35.40M	-32.94M	-17.02M
	Operating Cash Flow
-26.74M	-14.19M	-27.19M	-34.61M	-31.64M	-16.87M
	Investing Cash Flow
-27.37M	11.74M	438.00K	5.55M	-82.56M	-149.00K
	Financing Cash Flow
55.10M	2.61M	752.00K	5.00K	159.59M	9.16M

Sera Prognostics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1.78
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SERA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.73, below the 50-day MA of 2.46, and below the 200-day MA of 5.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SERA.

Sera Prognostics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
XGN	62 Neutral	$155.61M	―	-117.50%	―	1.78%	22.46%
MDXH	55 Neutral	$98.50M	―	-1552.23%	―	25.46%	21.83%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.34B	3.27	-45.10%	3.30%	16.80%	0.02%
VNRX	51 Neutral	$65.50M	―	138.92%	―	64.15%	41.65%
SERA	46 Neutral	$67.06M	―	-41.36%	―	-44.17%	12.77%
ACRS	46 Neutral	$155.92M	―	-91.03%	―	-40.09%	-18.67%
BDSX	44 Neutral	$42.02M	―	-1454.41%	―	35.76%	47.48%

Sera Prognostics Corporate Events

Sera Prognostics Elects New Board Members at Annual Meeting

On June 5, 2025, Sera Prognostics held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where 66.2% of eligible shares were represented. During the meeting, Jane F. Barlow, M.D. and Mansoor Raza Mirza, M.D. were elected to the Board of Directors for a three-year term, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

Sera Prognostics Appoints New Chief Commercial Officer

On May 8, 2025, Sera Prognostics announced the appointment of Lee Anderson as Chief Commercial Officer, marking a strategic move to enhance its commercial expansion and innovation. Anderson, with over 30 years of experience in the healthcare sector, is expected to drive the adoption and sales of Sera’s PreTRM Test, leveraging his successful track record from previous roles at Genomic Health and Exact Sciences. His leadership is anticipated to strengthen Sera’s market presence and support its mission to transform women’s healthcare.