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Safety Insurance Group (SAFT) AI Stock Analysis
Safety Insurance Group
(NASDAQ:SAFT)
SAFT's score is driven primarily by a solid financial foundation — minimal leverage, a growing equity base and sharply improved cash generation — offset by volatile profitability and recent TTM margin and ROE compression. The dominant near-term factor is the pending all-cash acquisition by MAPFRE at $105 per share, which has cleared antitrust review and lifted the stock above all major moving averages. That same deal, however, caps upside with shares trading within 2% of the offer price, and the full 22x P/E leaves little fundamental cushion. The 3.56% dividend yield and very low beta support the stock while the transaction moves toward its targeted Q1 2027 close, subject to insurance regulatory and shareholder approvals.
Safety Insurance Group (SAFT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $1.53B
- Dividend Yield
- 3.54%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 132.85K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 22.2
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.22
- Revenue Growth
- 7.04%
- EPS Growth
- -18.57%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 568
- Sector
- Financial
- Sector Strength
- 68
- Industry
- Insurance - Property & Casualty
Safety Insurance Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) is a U.S.-based insurance provider offering a diverse range of personal and commercial coverage. The company's private passenger automobile policies furnish protection against third-party bodily injury and property...
How the Company Makes Money
Safety Insurance Group primarily makes money through (1) underwriting income and (2) investment income on its investment portfolio (the “float” generated from collected premiums before claims are paid). 1) Underwriting (insurance operations) - Premiu...
Safety Insurance Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
A fortress balance sheet (Balance Sheet Score 78) anchors the profile, with debt-to-equity consistently near 5.5%-7.2% and equity growing to ~$893M in 2025, exceptionally conservative leverage for a P&C insurer. Cash flow (Score 70) has recovered strongly, with operating cash flow rising from $44M in 2022 to $195M in 2025 and free-cash-flow-to-net-income of 95-99%, signaling high earnings quality. The income statement (Score 62) is the weak link: revenue expanded over 60% from 2022 to 2025, but margins remain volatile, with TTM net margin slipping to ~5.4% and ROE falling to ~7.8% from 11.1%, pointing to renewed underwriting/claims pressure.
Income Statement
62PositiveBalance Sheet
78PositiveCash Flow
70Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.47B | 1.25B | 1.11B | 925.95M | 785.06M | 864.72M |
| Gross Profit | 619.05M | 456.89M | 393.10M | 283.64M | 293.08M | 402.99M |
| EBITDA | 100.11M | 134.99M | 99.84M | 32.19M | 66.72M | 171.69M |
| Net Income | 68.62M | 99.25M | 70.73M | 18.88M | 46.56M | 130.71M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.50B | 2.47B | 2.27B | 2.09B | 1.97B | 2.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.60B | 773.93M | 612.36M | 1.09B | 1.08B | 1.28B |
| Total Debt | 59.77M | 61.86M | 45.73M | 49.76M | 58.34M | 57.12M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.63B | 1.58B | 1.44B | 1.29B | 1.16B | 1.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 876.65M | 892.31M | 828.46M | 804.27M | 812.00M | 927.17M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 175.72M | 191.99M | 124.32M | 50.33M | 42.23M | 133.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 180.30M | 194.50M | 128.69M | 52.11M | 44.33M | 141.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -107.81M | -125.71M | -54.54M | 24.27M | -19.99M | -65.99M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -53.98M | -53.87M | -53.33M | -63.53M | -62.64M | -65.57M |
Safety Insurance Group Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAFT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 103.90 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 103.97, above the 50-day MA of 103.57, and above the 200-day MA of 83.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.11 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SAFT.
Safety Insurance Group Risk Analysis
Safety Insurance Group disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Safety Insurance Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
1 New RiskSafety Insurance Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UFCS80Outperform
DGICA78Outperform
SIGI78Outperform
SAFT73Outperform
MCY69Neutral
KMPR59Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80Outperform | $1.46B | 10.39 | 14.96% | 1.34% | 11.18% | 52.50% | |
| 78Outperform | $729.84M | 9.80 | 10.57% | 4.01% | -3.37% | -22.70% | |
| 78Outperform | $5.83B | 11.85 | 14.29% | 1.74% | 4.50% | 28.39% | |
| 73Outperform | $1.53B | 22.20 | 7.79% | 3.54% | 7.04% | -18.57% | |
| 69Neutral | $5.67B | 6.05 | 37.19% | 1.24% | 9.95% | 140.12% | |
| Sector * | 68Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
| 59Neutral | $1.96B | -3.95 | -19.33% | 3.85% | -3.92% | -256.50% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAFT | Safety Insurance | 103.90 | 38.75 | 59.48% | |
| DGICA | Donegal | 18.72 | 0.79 | 4.38% | |
| MCY | Mercury General | 102.42 | 27.21 | 36.17% | |
| SIGI | Selective Insurance | 98.83 | 26.27 | 36.20% | |
| UFCS | United Fire Group | 56.83 | 26.84 | 89.50% | |
| KMPR | Kemper Corp | 33.22 | -8.63 | -20.61% |
Safety Insurance Group Corporate Events
Safety Insurance clears key antitrust hurdle for MAPFRE merger
PositiveOn July 23, 2026, Safety Insurance Group entered into a merger agreement with MAPFRE U.S.A. Corp., under which a MAPFRE subsidiary will merge into Safety, leaving Safety as a wholly owned subsidiary of MAPFRE. A key regulatory milestone was reached w...
Safety Insurance to be Acquired by MAPFRE U.S.A.
PositiveOn July 23, 2026, Safety Insurance Group, Inc. agreed to be acquired by MAPFRE U.S.A. Corp. in an all-cash merger under which a MAPFRE subsidiary will merge into Safety Insurance, which will become a wholly owned unit of MAPFRE. Each outstanding shar...
Mapfre to Acquire Safety Insurance Group in Cash Deal
PositiveOn July 23, 2026, Safety Insurance Group announced a definitive agreement for an affiliate of Spain’s Mapfre S.A. to acquire the company in an all‑cash deal valued at about $1.54 billion, with shareholders set to receive $105 per share, a...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Sep 16, 2026