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Repsol (REPYY) AI Stock Analysis

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REPYY

Repsol

(Other OTC:REPYY)

Select Model
Rating:74.5Outperform
Price Target:$39.00â–²(17.29% Upside)
Action:upgraded
Date:11/01/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (TTM margin and earnings rebound with better free cash flow) and a constructive earnings call with reaffirmed guidance and strong shareholder remuneration. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E and solid dividend yield, while technicals are positive on trend but moderated by a slightly negative MACD and neutral momentum readings.

Positive Factors
Improved Cash Generation and Lower Net DebtStronger operating and free cash flow improves Repsol’s ability to fund projects, reduce debt and support shareholder returns internally. The sharp reduction in net debt also increases financial flexibility, giving the integrated business more resilience when commodity or refining conditions weaken.
Negative Factors
Material Earnings CyclicalityThe sharp swings between strong and weak years show that Repsol’s earnings remain highly exposed to oil, gas, refining and chemical cycles. Even with current margin recovery, normalization in commodity prices or spreads could materially reduce profitability and cash generation.

Repsol (REPYY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%REPYY+78.05%SPY+14.55%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$36.72B
Dividend Yield
3.64%
Average Volume (3M)
86.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
6.0
Beta (1Y)
0.11
Revenue Growth
30.30%
EPS Growth
434.44%
Country
US
Employees
24,523
Sector
Energy
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Oil & Gas Integrated

Repsol Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Repsol, S.A., a globally integrated energy enterprise established in 1927 and headquartered in Madrid, Spain, operates across numerous sectors worldwide. Its Exploration and Production division focuses on discovering, developing, and extracting crude...

How the Company Makes Money

Repsol makes money primarily by producing, transforming, and selling energy and energy-related products and services across multiple segments:\n\n1) Upstream (Exploration & Production): Repsol earns revenue from selling the crude oil, natural gas, an...

Repsol Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:4.69%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive overall. Repsol reported substantial year-on-year growth in adjusted net income, operating cash flow, upstream production, customer activity, renewable generation and shareholder remuneration, while also reducing net debt and maintaining a low gearing ratio. Management highlighted strong refining and trading conditions, project execution and a positive full-year outlook. The main concerns were market volatility, European diesel tightness, freight-rate swings, weaker chemicals performance, working-capital investment and selective execution constraints, but these issues did not outweigh the broad operational and financial gains.

Positive Updates

Strong Third-Quarter Financial Results
Third-quarter adjusted net income was EUR 2.7 billion, roughly EUR 2 billion higher than in the same period of 2025, with the Industrial division as the main contributor. Cash flow from operations was EUR 3.5 billion, up EUR 2.3 billion year-on-year, while cumulative operating cash flow to September reached EUR 6.5 billion, already exceeding the initial full-year estimate.

Negative Updates

Geopolitical Volatility and Uncertainty
Market conditions remained extremely volatile because of ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated uncertainty. Management also described the macroeconomic environment as complex, citing high inflation, tighter monetary policies and high interest rates.

Company Guidance

For full year 2026, upstream production is expected to average between 560,000 to 570,000 barrels per day, net CapEx is expected to remain at between EUR 2.5 billion and EUR 3 billion, and cash flow from operations is expected to be between EUR 9 billion to EUR 9.5 billion, based on a fourth quarter refining margin indicator of around $22, $23 plus a figure that will be close to $8 per barrel as a premium, or around $30 a barrel including refining margin plus premium; shareholder remuneration is expected to be EUR 3 billion, at the lower end of the 30%, 40% cash-flow-from-operations distribution range. Repsol anticipates positive free cash flow for full year 2026, expects the 2027 cash dividend to be roughly EUR 1.15 per share, comprising EUR 0.56 in January and EUR 0.59 in July, and is working under the basis of a refining margin of $19 a barrel for 2027 with the premium above $4 a barrel. For 2027, production is expected to be probably from 580,000 to 600,000 barrels a day; chemicals EBITDA could be something close to EUR 70 million, EUR 80 million positive for the whole year, with a positive EBIT in 2027, while Sines is expected to add EUR 80 million, EUR 90 million of new EBITDA in 2027, the new reactor of OP/SM in Tarragona EUR 10 million, and the ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene plant EUR 5 million.

Repsol Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TTM shows a clear profitability rebound with strong margin expansion and improved earnings, supported by better free cash flow generation. Offsets include higher leverage versus recent years and historically uneven cash conversion/coverage, leaving results sensitive to commodity-cycle normalization.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

66Positive

Cash Flow

71Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue67.46B52.70B57.12B58.95B69.29B49.74B
Gross Profit16.60B7.07B10.91B12.52B16.11B10.10B
EBITDA11.27B5.73B5.61B7.25B9.93B6.74B
Net Income5.70B1.82B1.76B3.17B4.25B2.50B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets66.94B59.40B63.19B61.63B59.96B56.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.74B7.98B6.43B8.43B9.01B7.84B
Total Debt16.52B13.24B12.19B10.56B13.36B14.49B
Total Liabilities35.98B31.80B34.09B32.56B33.99B33.46B
Stockholders Equity28.39B22.08B26.49B26.20B25.29B22.41B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.16B1.16B240.00M2.22B4.30B2.77B
Operating Cash Flow7.73B4.76B4.96B6.51B7.83B4.68B
Investing Cash Flow-4.96B-4.76B-2.69B-5.85B-4.10B-2.93B
Financing Cash Flow-3.13B-1.23B-1.64B-3.05B-2.83B-529.00M

Repsol Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price33.25

Price Trends

50DMA33.35Negative
100DMA31.08Positive
200DMA27.72Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.07Positive
RSI48.16Neutral
STOCH33.61Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REPYY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.05, below the 50-day MA of 33.35, and above the 200-day MA of 27.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for REPYY.

Repsol Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

REPYY against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
SHELSHEL89Outperform$274.22B8.4318.01%3.12%18.22%136.13%
EE78Outperform$82.12B9.9515.47%4.24%9.45%204.92%
EQNREQNR78Outperform$100.85B8.8327.45%3.54%12.89%129.13%
REPYYREPYY75Outperform$35.56B5.9521.63%3.64%30.30%434.44%
ECEC70Outperform$31.52B7.1217.64%4.21%21.59%63.09%
BPBP68Neutral$115.81B13.3215.61%4.46%26.40%473.45%
Sector *65Neutral$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%25%50%75%100%REPYYBPECESHELEQNRDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
REPYY and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
REPYYRepsol SA33.2514.5177.41%
BPBP plc.45.7010.8931.28%
ECEcopetrol15.435.4153.96%
EEni S.P.A.57.5820.6956.10%
SHELShell Plc99.0826.2736.09%
EQNREquinor42.9519.2881.41%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 01, 2026