Rocky Brands (RCKY) AI Stock Analysis

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Rocky Brands

(NASDAQ:RCKY)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

$26.00

▲(12.70%Upside)

Rocky Brands has a strong financial and operational base, supported by robust cash flow and effective strategic initiatives to counter economic challenges. Its technical indicators show positive momentum, and the valuation remains attractive. The strong earnings call further supports a positive outlook, despite some challenges in wholesale sales and tariff impacts.

Rocky Brands (RCKY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$173.99M

Dividend Yield2.66%

Average Volume (3M)102.20K

Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7

Beta (1Y)1.82

Revenue Growth-2.01%

EPS Growth2.08%

CountryUS

Employees2,530

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength73

IndustryApparel - Footwear & Accessories

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.73

Shares Outstanding7,461,167

10 Day Avg. Volume76,288

30 Day Avg. Volume102,196

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.49

Price to Book (P/B)0.60

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio4.56

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$20.00

Price Target Upside-13.31% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering1

Rocky Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRocky Brands, Inc. is a prominent designer, manufacturer, and marketer of premium quality footwear and apparel. The company, headquartered in Nelsonville, Ohio, operates primarily within the work, western, outdoor, and military sectors, providing durable and innovative products under well-known brands such as Rocky, Georgia Boot, and Durango. With a strong focus on craftsmanship and functionality, Rocky Brands caters to consumers who prioritize robustness and comfort in their footwear and apparel choices.

How the Company Makes MoneyRocky Brands generates revenue primarily through the sale of its footwear and apparel products. The company's key revenue streams include wholesale distribution to retailers, direct-to-consumer sales through its branded e-commerce platforms, and sales to military and government institutions. Strategic partnerships with retailers and distributors expand its market reach, while proprietary technology and designs enhance the appeal of its products. Additionally, Rocky Brands leverages its brand portfolio to capture diverse consumer segments, enhancing its profitability across various market conditions.

Rocky Brands Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 66.57%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call for Rocky Brands reflects a strong start to Fiscal 2025, with notable achievements in retail sales growth and gross margin improvement. However, challenges such as the decline in wholesale sales and the impact of tariffs create a mixed outlook. The company's proactive measures in sourcing and inventory management aim to mitigate these challenges.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Retail Performance

Retail sales increased by 20.5% to $36.6 million, driven by healthy demand across multiple brands, particularly XTRATUF and Muck.

Record Gross Margin

Achieved the highest gross margin ever reported in Q1 at 41.2%, up from 39.1% in the previous year.

Significant Increase in Adjusted Net Income

Adjusted net income for Q1 2025 was $5.5 million or $0.73 per diluted share, compared to $3.1 million or $0.41 per diluted share a year ago.

Reduced Interest Expense

Interest expense decreased to $2.4 million from $4.5 million in Q1 2024, due to a prior debt refinancing and lower debt levels.

Diversified Sourcing Strategy

Accelerating efforts to reduce product sourcing from China by shifting production to Vietnam, Cambodia, India, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico.

Negative Updates

Wholesale Sales Decline

Wholesale sales were down by $5 million or 6.3% to $74.8 million, primarily due to a planned reduction in commercial military sales.

Challenges with Tariffs

Higher tariffs imposed by the U.S. have created a dynamic environment, prompting immediate plans for price increases and sourcing shifts.

Economic Uncertainty Affecting Orders

Georgia Boot experienced a slowdown in orders, particularly in March, due to economic uncertainties.

Inventory Management Challenges

Inventories increased to $175.5 million, up 6.3% compared to the previous year, partially due to accelerated receipts to mitigate tariff impacts.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2025, Rocky Brands Inc. reported a robust performance with a 20% growth in retail sales and achieved its highest-ever Q1 gross margin of 41.2%, despite a 1.1% year-over-year increase in net sales to $114.1 million. The company experienced a 78% increase in adjusted net income, benefiting from reduced interest expenses following last year's refinancing. The XTRATUF brand showed exceptional momentum, with bookings up 80% from last year, while the women's business in the Muck brand delivered double-digit growth. The company plans to implement price increases in June to offset tariffs, particularly those impacting Chinese imports, and is diversifying its sourcing structure by shifting production to Vietnam, Cambodia, India, and its own facilities in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Despite economic uncertainties, Rocky Brands maintains its guidance for low single-digit revenue growth for the year.

Rocky Brands Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Rocky Brands demonstrates reasonable financial health with stable profitability and operational efficiency. The company maintains a balanced capital structure, though revenue growth has faced challenges. Cash flow generation remains strong, providing a solid foundation for future investments and debt servicing.

Income Statement

Positive

Rocky Brands shows moderate profitability with a gross profit margin of 39.98% and a net profit margin of 3.03% in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The revenue growth is slightly negative, indicating a decline from previous years. EBIT and EBITDA margins are fairly stable, indicating operational efficiency despite reduced revenue.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet presents a moderately leveraged structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.56 in the TTM, which is a manageable level. Return on Equity is relatively low at 5.83%, suggesting room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 50.45%, indicating a balanced approach between equity and liabilities.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend with a 35.6% growth in free cash flow in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow to net income ratio is robust, which supports the company's ability to fund operations and investments.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
454.94M	453.77M	461.83M	615.48M	514.23M	277.31M
	Gross Profit
181.87M	179.01M	178.60M	225.22M	194.54M	104.73M
	EBIT
31.79M	31.07M	35.37M	31.72M	24.63M	27.17M
	EBITDA
36.49M	40.43M	46.35M	56.37M	62.71M	32.41M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
13.78M	11.39M	10.43M	20.46M	20.56M	20.96M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.56M	3.72M	4.47M	5.72M	5.91M	28.35M
	Total Assets
468.22M	457.30M	479.38M	582.39M	624.58M	229.09M
	Total Debt
131.47M	135.05M	181.22M	265.11M	278.85M	944.00K
	Net Debt
128.92M	131.33M	176.75M	259.39M	272.94M	-27.41M
	Total Liabilities
232.01M	225.08M	255.83M	366.92M	426.72M	49.59M
	Stockholders Equity
236.21M	232.22M	223.56M	215.47M	197.85M	179.50M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
30.98M	48.10M	69.66M	12.42M	-75.93M	19.73M
	Operating Cash Flow
35.36M	52.76M	73.58M	19.12M	-54.88M	31.44M
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.69M	-2.96M	13.38M	-1.23M	-233.46M	-11.71M
	Financing Cash Flow
-32.01M	-50.55M	-88.21M	-18.08M	265.89M	-6.89M

Rocky Brands Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price23.07

Price Trends

50DMA

17.78

Positive

100DMA

19.83

Positive

200DMA

22.80

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.47

Negative

RSI

67.84

Neutral

STOCH

84.79

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RCKY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.29, above the 50-day MA of 17.78, and above the 200-day MA of 22.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RCKY.

Rocky Brands Risk Analysis

Rocky Brands disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rocky Brands reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks

We are implementing a new enterprise resource planning system, and challenges with the implementation of the system may have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition results of operations Q4, 2024

Rocky Brands Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RCKY	74 Outperform	$173.99M	12.70	5.97%	2.66%	-2.01%	2.08%
SHOO	74 Outperform	$1.80B	10.69	19.51%	3.39%	10.17%	-4.71%
WEYS	73 Outperform	$303.64M	10.44	11.76%	3.31%	-5.46%	-1.09%
CROX	73 Outperform	$5.73B	6.07	53.70%	―	2.09%	26.18%
WWW	68 Neutral	$1.36B	18.93	25.29%	2.38%	-13.05%	―
CAL	64 Neutral	$455.48M	5.58	13.67%	2.10%	-4.84%	-49.08%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.93B	11.25	2.95%	3.88%	2.69%	-24.71%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

RCKY

Rocky Brands

23.07

-13.93

-37.65%

CROX

Crocs

99.01

-49.40

-33.29%

SHOO

Steven Madden

24.67

-19.67

-44.36%

WEYS

Weyco Group

31.69

3.76

13.46%

WWW

Wolverine World Wide

16.65

3.85

30.08%

CAL

Caleres

13.34

-19.46

-59.33%

Rocky Brands Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Rocky Brands Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting

Neutral

Jun 4, 2025

On June 3, 2025, Rocky Brands, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where several key decisions were made. The shareholders elected directors to serve until the 2027 meeting, approved the compensation of the company’s executive officers on an advisory basis, and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (RCKY) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rocky Brands stock, see the RCKY Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.