QCR Holdings (QCRH) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management expects Q4 2026 capital markets production in a range of $18 million-$20 million and is reaffirming $60 million-$70 million of capital markets revenue over the next four quarters, along with gross loan growth of 10%-15% annualized for the fourth quarter of 2026; assuming no additional Federal Reserve rate changes, fourth quarter NIM TEY is expected to remain relatively static, with approximately $165 million of fixed-rate loans repricing from the low-6% range to the mid-6% range and new municipal bonds expected to yield between 7.5% and 8% on a tax equivalent basis. Fourth-quarter non-interest expense guidance is $54 million-$57 million, annual non-interest expense growth is targeted below 5%, and the effective tax rate is estimated to remain in the range of 8%-10% for the fourth quarter of 2026. The company expects operating leverage to build throughout the remainder of 2027 and subsequent years, to run past $10 billion sometime in 2027, likely in the first half of the year, and expects Durbin revenue impact of around $3 million in annual in the middle of 2028; it targets an NIB percentage of 21%-23% and moving that 100 basis points a year, every single year, while expecting to maintain 123, 124 basis points of CECL.