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Peloton Interactive
(NASDAQ:PTON)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-5.66% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
PTON scores as a mixed turnaround: improving profitability and strong free cash flow support the rating, and technicals are constructive, but the balance-sheet risk/limited transparency and stretched valuation (very high P/E with no dividend support) cap the overall score. Earnings-call guidance reinforces the tradeoff—better margins/EBITDA versus near-term revenue and subscription declines.
Positive Factors
Profitability turnaround
Peloton’s first full year of positive net income and operating income indicates that restructuring and operating improvements are translating into sustainable earnings power. This provides a stronger base for reinvestment, debt reduction, and resilience than the loss-making results reported in prior fiscal years.
Negative Factors
Subscription contraction
A projected decline in Connected Fitness subscriptions directly pressures Peloton’s recurring revenue base, which is central to the company’s business model. Fewer subscribers can also reduce content monetization and weaken the installed-base economics that make hardware ownership more valuable.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability turnaround
Peloton’s first full year of positive net income and operating income indicates that restructuring and operating improvements are translating into sustainable earnings power. This provides a stronger base for reinvestment, debt reduction, and resilience than the loss-making results reported in prior fiscal years.
Read all positive factors
Peloton Interactive Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Analyzes profitability across different business areas, showing which segments drive the most value and where margins might improve.
Analyzes profitability across different business areas, showing which segments drive the most value and where margins might improve.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPeloton Interactive (PTON) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.25B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.85M
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.8
Beta (1Y)1.99
Revenue Growth-1.80%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,199
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.14
Shares Outstanding423,035,060
10 Day Avg. Volume8,687,520
30 Day Avg. Volume8,851,799
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.29
Price to Book (P/B)-18.44
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio6.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.59
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.78
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.38Price Target Upside39.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.36B
Peloton Interactive Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Peloton Interactive, Inc. operates globally, providing interactive fitness equipment and services. The company's main offerings include internet-connected exercise machines like the Peloton Bike, Bike+, Tread, and Tread+, which feature integrated ...
How the Company Makes Money
Peloton primarily makes money through a mix of (1) hardware sales and (2) recurring subscription revenue tied to its connected fitness platform, with additional contributions from related services and commerce.
1) Connected fitness products (hard...
Peloton Interactive Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated meaningful operational and financial progress — notably sustained profitability, higher adjusted EBITDA, stronger margins, substantial free cash flow, reduced leverage, cost-savings achievement, and strong product/AI adoption — while acknowledging near-term top-line and subscription headwinds, a Q4 churn uptick (partly due to a now-corrected payment reactivation issue), a one-time legal contingency, and FY '27 revenue guidance that implies a modest decline. Management emphasized product road map, commercial expansion, and new category launches (calendar 2027/ fiscal '28) as catalysts for future revenue acceleration.Positive Updates
First Full-Year Profitability
Peloton reported its first full fiscal year of positive net income ($63M) and positive operating income ($161M), demonstrating a meaningful turnaround in profitability.
Negative Updates
FY '27 Revenue Guidance Decline
Full fiscal year 2027 total revenue outlook is $2.3B–$2.4B, which implies a midpoint decline of approximately 3.9% year-over-year. Management notes the decline is impacted by last year’s subscription price increase headwind but revenue contraction remains a near-term concern.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
First Full-Year Profitability
Peloton reported its first full fiscal year of positive net income ($63M) and positive operating income ($161M), demonstrating a meaningful turnaround in profitability.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Peloton guided fiscal 2027 to total revenue of $2.3–$2.4 billion (midpoint down ~3.9% YoY, though management says trajectory improves if last year’s subscription price increase is normalized), full‑year total gross margin of roughly 54% (≈+140 bps YoY) and Q1 revenue of $545–$565 million (Q1 midpoint ≈+1% YoY); adjusted EBITDA is guided to $475–$525 million for FY27 (midpoint ≈+7% YoY) with Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $135–$145 million (Q1 midpoint ≈+18% YoY), and minimum free cash flow of at least $350 million for the year; ending paid Connected Fitness subscriptions are guided quarterly (Q1: 2.455–2.475 million, Q1 midpoint ≈‑9.8% YoY), management expects net churn to be roughly flat YoY for FY27 after Q4 net churn of 2.2% (+37 bps YoY), and anticipates record total gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and net income in the company’s history.Peloton Interactive Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.45B | 2.49B | 2.70B | 2.80B | 3.58B |
| Gross Profit | 1.29B | 1.27B | 1.21B | 927.20M | 698.40M |
| EBITDA | 244.10M | 108.60M | -287.60M | -610.40M | -2.62B |
| Net Income | 63.20M | -118.90M | -551.90M | -1.26B | -2.83B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.06B | 2.13B | 2.19B | 2.77B | 4.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 49.80M | 1.04B | 697.60M | 813.90M | 1.25B |
| Total Debt | 1.71B | 1.98B | 2.08B | 2.36B | 2.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.20B | 2.54B | 2.70B | 3.06B | 3.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | -139.70M | -413.70M | -519.20M | -295.20M | 592.90M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 377.70M | 323.70M | -85.80M | -470.00M | -2.36B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 387.60M | 333.00M | -66.10M | -387.60M | -2.02B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -21.40M | -5.10M | 26.80M | -69.90M | 153.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -207.60M | 1.70M | -94.40M | 76.80M | 2.02B |
Peloton Interactive Technical Analysis
Neutral
5.30
Price Trends
5.28
Negative
5.59
Negative
5.31
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.08
Negative
52.97
Neutral
58.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PTON, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.92, above the 50-day MA of 5.28, and below the 200-day MA of 5.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PTON.
Peloton Interactive Risk Analysis
Peloton Interactive disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Peloton Interactive reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Peloton Interactive Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $9.08B | 21.61 | 13.14% | ― | 12.69% | 75.05% | |
70 Outperform | $16.37B | 29.01 | 8.72% | ― | 30.49% | 134.07% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $2.44B | 27.90 | 3.97% | 8.93% | -37.17% | 84.41% | |
58 Neutral | $2.25B | 35.78 | -20.60% | ― | -1.80% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $3.62B | 16.26 | -53.58% | 13.89% | 12.70% | 31.61% | |
43 Neutral | $243.78M | -3.37 | 15.21% | ― | -8.94% | 16.41% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PTON
Peloton Interactive
5.12
-2.25
-30.53%
CALY
Callaway Golf
13.67
4.79
53.94%
PLNT
Planet Fitness
47.98
-44.69
-48.22%
XPOF
Xponential Fitness
4.95
-2.45
-33.11%
LTH
Life Time Group Holdings
40.62
15.24
60.05%
AS
Amer Sports, Inc.
28.14
-2.81
-9.08%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.