Personalis (PSNL) AI Stock Analysis

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Personalis

(NASDAQ:PSNL)

57Neutral

Personalis shows potential due to strong revenue growth and strategic initiatives towards reimbursement and market expansion. However, significant risks exist due to high operating expenses, ongoing net losses, and challenging valuations. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, yet cautious investment is advised due to potential overbought conditions.

Positive Factors

Clinical Results

Strong interim data from the VICTORI study showed NeXT Personal detected 100% of colorectal cancer relapse ahead of imaging.

New Contracts

New pharma customer contracts worth approximately $5 million each for 2025 indicate strong demand for ultra-sensitive MRD in trials.

Technology Recognition

Personalis stock has increased significantly driven by increasing recognition of the company's ultra-sensitive MRD technology.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Revenue growth slowed to (15%) in 4Q24 from 41% growth in 3Q24 as a decline in Oncology growth was compounded by a decline in VA MVP growth.

Volume Decrease

The year-over-year revenue decrease was driven by lower Natera and VA MVP volumes.

Personalis (PSNL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$425.73M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)753.29K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.39

Revenue Growth15.57%

EPS Growth31.82%

CountryUS

Employees228

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength38

IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.18

Shares Outstanding88,325,134

10 Day Avg. Volume971,778

30 Day Avg. Volume753,295

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.18

Price to Book (P/B)1.30

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-6.83

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$7.25

Price Target Upside48.26% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering9

Personalis Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPersonalis, Inc. is a company operating in the biotechnology sector, primarily focused on genomics. It provides advanced genomic sequencing and analytics services to support precision medicine in oncology and other critical areas. The company is dedicated to improving patient care by focusing on the development and application of comprehensive molecular profiling solutions to enable personalized medicine.

How the Company Makes MoneyPersonalis generates revenue through its genomic sequencing and analytics services, which are offered primarily to biopharmaceutical companies, healthcare providers, and research institutions. The company provides comprehensive genomic profiling services, which help in drug development and personalized treatment plans by offering insights into the genetic makeup of tumors and other conditions. Key revenue streams include contracts for genomic testing services, partnerships with pharmaceutical companies for drug discovery and development, and collaborations with research institutions. Personalis also benefits from government grants and research funding, which contribute to its revenue. Strategic partnerships and collaborations play a significant role in expanding its service offerings and customer base.

Personalis Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Personalis has shown revenue growth and improved gross margins, indicating positive operational trends. However, persistent net losses, negative free cash flow, and limited profitability continue to pose significant challenges despite a strong balance sheet with low leverage and high liquidity.

Income Statement

Neutral

Personalis has shown revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 with a notable increase in total revenue by 15.16%. However, the company has consistently operated at a loss, with a negative net profit margin of -96.06% in 2024, although this is an improvement over the previous year. The gross profit margin has increased to 31.70%, indicating better cost management relative to revenue. Despite improvements, high operating losses reflected in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest that the company still faces challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 75.09% in 2024, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.22, reflecting low leverage and a conservative capital structure. However, the return on equity remains negative due to consistent net losses, suggesting that equity is not being effectively translated into profit. Positive cash and short-term investments further enhance liquidity but do not offset the profitability concerns.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Personalis experienced a reduction in negative free cash flow from 2023 to 2024, showing some improvement in cash management. However, operating cash flow remains negative, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable due to persistent losses. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests cash outflows are closely aligned with the net losses, indicating limited capacity to generate cash from core operations.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
84.61M	73.48M	65.05M	85.49M	78.65M
	Gross Profit
26.82M	18.21M	13.35M	31.66M	20.11M
	EBIT
-68.27M	-109.94M	-115.53M	-65.35M	-42.15M
	EBITDA
-70.30M	-96.81M	-104.64M	-59.01M	-34.05M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-81.28M	-108.30M	-113.31M	-65.23M	-41.28M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
185.01M	114.18M	167.66M	287.06M	203.29M
	Total Assets
270.27M	225.10M	292.70M	396.53M	244.84M
	Total Debt
44.25M	48.96M	48.65M	52.80M	10.99M
	Net Debt
-47.17M	-8.02M	-40.48M	-52.79M	-57.54M
	Total Liabilities
67.31M	95.66M	74.56M	86.23M	49.90M
	Stockholders Equity
202.96M	129.44M	218.14M	310.30M	194.94M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-46.75M	-67.17M	-120.13M	-81.91M	-45.90M
	Operating Cash Flow
-45.15M	-56.26M	-70.23M	-70.83M	-42.65M
	Investing Cash Flow
-35.07M	13.10M	52.54M	-60.07M	-65.14M
	Financing Cash Flow
114.67M	11.03M	1.37M	169.70M	121.27M

Personalis Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price4.89

Price Trends

50DMA

3.78

Positive

100DMA

4.55

Positive

200DMA

4.62

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.38

Negative

RSI

63.87

Neutral

STOCH

61.83

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PSNL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.19, above the 50-day MA of 3.78, and above the 200-day MA of 4.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PSNL.

Personalis Risk Analysis

Personalis disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Personalis reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Personalis Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (52)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TWST	59 Neutral	$1.77B	―	-38.22%	―	25.30%	2.75%
PSNL	57 Neutral	$425.73M	―	-51.25%	―	15.57%	31.82%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$5.04B	3.15	-44.58%	2.85%	16.08%	-0.27%
GH	52 Neutral	$5.04B	―	-4584.47%	―	28.20%	13.87%
MYGN	51 Neutral	$353.96M	―	-13.84%	―	12.15%	61.33%
OPK	50 Neutral	$999.25M	―	-3.04%	―	-13.79%	82.82%
NEOG	49 Neutral	$1.41B	―	-16.71%	―	-2.50%	-30760.27%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

PSNL

Personalis

4.89

3.49

249.29%

MYGN

Myriad Genetics

4.11

-21.18

-83.75%

NEOG

Neogen

6.56

-6.98

-51.55%

OPK

Opko Health

1.33

0.01

0.76%

Guardant Health

40.46

15.10

59.54%

TWST

Twist Bioscience

30.10

-16.91

-35.97%

Personalis Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 22.25%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Personalis reported strong revenue growth and significant progress in molecular test delivery and biopharma revenue. The company maintains a healthy cash position and positive guidance for 2025. However, high operating expenses and net loss, alongside the impact of unreimbursed clinical test costs on gross margin, present challenges. Overall, the sentiment leans positive due to the outweighing highlights and the strategic steps towards future reimbursement and revenue growth.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue Growth and Molecular Test Delivery

Personalis achieved revenues of over $20 million in Q1 2025 and delivered over 2,000 molecular tests, marking a 52% increase from the previous quarter and approximately 650% year-over-year growth compared to Q1 2024.

Biopharma Revenue Surge

Biopharma revenue grew to $13.6 million, a 39% increase compared to the same period in 2024, driven by strong growth in the use of NeXT Personal.

Cash Position and Financial Guidance

The company has cash and cash equivalents of $185.7 million, reiterating revenue guidance of $80 million to $90 million for 2025, with expected 30% to 40% quarter-over-quarter growth in molecular results.

Clinical and Reimbursement Progress

Personalis is advancing towards reimbursement in breast, lung cancer, and IO therapy monitoring, with promising interim data in colorectal cancer indicating potential for future reimbursement.

Negative Updates

Operating Expenses and Net Loss

Operating expenses were $24.9 million, and the net loss for Q1 2025 was $15.8 million, compared to $13 million for the same period last year.

Impact of Unreimbursed Clinical Test Costs on Gross Margin

Gross margin was 35%, impacted by approximately 8 percentage points due to unreimbursed clinical test costs, highlighting a challenge until reimbursement is achieved.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter of 2025, Personalis reported revenues of $20.6 million, delivering over 2,000 molecular tests. The company is projecting revenues between $80 million and $90 million for the full year, with a growth expectation of 30% to 40% quarter-over-quarter in molecular results. Cash and cash equivalents stood at $185.7 million, providing a strong runway to pursue growth objectives. The biopharma segment contributed $13.6 million, marking a 39% increase from the prior year, driven by the adoption of NeXT Personal. Clinical diagnostics achieved their highest quarterly revenue, and Personalis reiterated its goal of achieving reimbursement for at least two indications in 2025. The company aims to expand market presence through partnerships, such as with Tempus, while also advancing research to support reimbursement efforts, particularly in breast, lung, and colorectal cancers.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.