CareDx (CDNA) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

CareDx increased 2026 full year revenue guidance by $30 million to $520 million to $530 million, or $525 million, with 38% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the range, and full year adjusted EBITDA guidance by $23 million to $90 million to $100 million, or $95 million at the midpoint of the range and 18% of revenue; Q4 2026 assumptions include total revenue of $131 million to $141 million, or 25% year-over-year growth at the $136 million midpoint of the range, testing services revenue of $112 million to $122 million, or 50% year-over-year growth at the $117 million midpoint of the range, 76,000 to 80,000 tests, or 47% year-over-year growth at the 78,000 midpoint of the range, transplant volume of 61,000 to 63,000 tests, or 17% year-over-year growth at the 62,000 test midpoint of the range, 15,000 to 17,000 specialty oncology tests, approximately $1,500 revenue per test, 71% to 72% non-GAAP gross margins, non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $79 million, plus or minus $2 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $16 million to $26 million, or $21 million at the midpoint of the range, representing approximately 15% of revenue; the company expects AlloHeme commercial launch in the first quarter of 2027, HistoMap broader commercial availability in 2027, solid organ transplant growth of 15% year-over-year in 2027, NavDx growth of 30% to 40% for the next 2 years, through 2027, and previously anticipated coverage for AlloHeme likely in '28 with significant revenues in 2029.